China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[AssassinsMace]

If China does have 2000 miles of underground tunnels, China doesn't have to worry much about its mobile nukes being taken out. The US would need to know virtually an exact location to take them out if they were underground. That would mean the enemy would have to know where the tunnels are first and then where exactly China's ICBMs are in those tunnels. The earth is a very protective surface. The actual blast area from a nuclear explosion is not as large as people think. The area of effect lessens the deeper it goes down. Remember how it was bragged that US artificial intelligence would reduce the search for surface targets to 45 minutes from the 2-3 hours it would take for people to do the same job? Roll out a DF-41 from a tunnel and launching takes less than 30 minutes. AI takes 45 minutes plus whatever time it takes in launching whatever platform to reach the target. It's already too late. And like the Kosovo War showed NATO allies had to hit targets they even suspected were decoys just to be sure. Remember how when Vietnam got six of the latest Su-30s and people were acting like Vietnam would obtain air superiority over China? If they think like that, the more they're gonna to lose. Like some Americans are in denial of what's going on in China rather believing China is backwards and people live in straw huts. That's the kind of ignorance that is going make them ill-prepared for a war.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Closest to US, gives the least amount of reaction time.

"Closest" in this case isn't that big a deal since the missile has the range to hit anywhere in the US from anywhere in China. ICBMs travel at around Mach 25, so instead of taking 30 minutes to reach the US it would take 35 - that's tactically immaterial. All it does is give them an extra five minutes to weep and say their goodbyes before they're all immolated. These minor gains by aren't worth the increased vulnerability from basing all the missiles in one confined geographic region.

Remember how it was bragged that US artificial intelligence would reduce the search for surface targets to 45 minutes from the 2-3 hours it would take for people to do the same job?

That presumes their sensor networks are still operational, satellites still overhead, etc. That's far from assured.

 

[antiterror13]

If China does have 2000 miles of underground tunnels, China doesn't have to worry much about its mobile nukes being taken out. The US would need to know virtually an exact location to take them out if they were underground. That would mean the enemy would have to know where the tunnels are first and then where exactly China's ICBMs are in those tunnels. The earth is a very protective surface. The actual blast area from a nuclear explosion is not as large as people think. The area of effect lessens the deeper it goes down. Remember how it was bragged that US artificial intelligence would reduce the search for surface targets to 45 minutes from the 2-3 hours it would take for people to do the same job? Roll out a DF-41 from a tunnel and launching takes less than 30 minutes. AI takes 45 minutes plus whatever time it takes in launching whatever platform to reach the target. It's already too late. And like the Kosovo War showed NATO allies had to hit targets they even suspected were decoys just to be sure. Remember how when Vietnam got six of the latest Su-30s and people were acting like Vietnam would obtain air superiority over China? If they think like that, the more they're gonna to lose. Like some Americans are in denial of what's going on in China rather believing China is backwards and people live in straw huts. That's the kind of ignorance that is going make them ill-prepared for a war.

The US medias may be that ignorant and incapable ... but the inner circle pentagon and CIA know exactly what they are doing, they just don't say it

 

[Tirdent]

JL-2 is already fairly small when compared to other modern SLBMs. So even if the missile tech itself is on par with those missiles, likelihood that enough range can be extracted from a smaller size is remote.

Is it? What are the confirmed specs? If Wiki is to be believed (l/d/wt 13m/2m/42t) JL-2 is larger than Bulava & Trident C4, or similar to Sineva in weight (though being solid propellant it won't match the performance). This would make it about average, instead of particularly small.

One scenario - based on what is possibly a long and very blunt tipped shroud with separation rocket nozzles seen during the 70th anniversary parade - is that JL-2 has a reduced diameter third stage. It could then be the case that the main external difference of JL-3 is a full-diameter third stage, enabling it to fit the same tubes - within the suggested 13x2m envelope, you could build a ~50t missile that way. Performance would then approach M51 at about 10000km with six 100kt-ish MIRVs, which might just suffice.

 

[shanlung]

Why would the DF-41 be based only in Heilongjiang? They have the range to hit the entirety of the US from anywhere in China; they wouldn't be concentrated in one province, they'd be spread throughout the country.

As I written in https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/china-ballistic-missiles-and-nuclear-arms-thread.t5881/page-320 , and extracted from there. Having plagiarised those information from other places. Some folks hold my toes to the fire saying no reloads for DF-41s. Even so, we got a lot of DF41s even at 2017.
And as said,
How many brigades of DF-41 since 2017 number of 4 brigades?
6 Brigades or 8 Brigades?

6666666666666666666666666666666666666666666

This would make the DF-41 the world's longest range missile, surpassing the range of the US

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which has a reported range of 13,000 km. Throw weight of LGM-30 is only 1000kg or just 3 numbers of 170kton nukes. USA UGM-133 Trident II throw weight is only 2,800 kg.



Four brigades of DF-41 ICBMs (Heilongjiang, Henan, Xinjiang, and Tibet Provinces) with one re-load per DF-41 TEL yields 96 total DF-41 ICBMs.
How many brigades of DF-41 since 2017 number of 4 brigades?
6 Brigades or 8 Brigades?

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If China got only 260 thermonukes like what everyone is saying and hoping, the surplus warheads will be delivering dim sum and tea bags and cleaned pressed laundry from Chinese laundrymen.

Please remember DF-41 got a very big brother coming up as well in case you think DF-41 not worthy enough to deliver dim sum and tea bags and cleaned laundry.
Russia’s RS-28 “Sarmat” ten-ton payload, rated as the most dangerous ICBM . Reportedly it may carry up to fifteen 350 kiloton warheads, or up to twenty-four of the new “Avangard” nuclear-armed Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) warheads. Sarmat will be dwarfed by Chinese new missile with even larger twenty-ton payload. That will be solid-fuel space-launch vehicle (SLV), and could form the basis for what might become the world’s largest “mobile” ICBM.

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[shanlung]

And in that same page, do recall this written.

6666666666666666666666666666666666666666666

And as demonstrated so clearly in KSA a few days ago, the Aegis and Patriot systems defending Saudi a joke as the Aegis and Patriot cannot even detect a few sub Mach cruise missiles not to talk of taking them down. Even to now, no one sure where those came from and who flown them. Despite overlapping coverage of those Patriot and Aegis systems.

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How will the Patriot systems in USA defend against ICBMs coming in at speed of Mach 25 when they cannot even detect missiles at sub Mach or even know where the missiles came from despite overlapping coverage?

Allies of the country that nuke China will not go unpunished as well. Whether they could not stop USA or do not want to stop USA or USA do not want to listen to them will be irrelevant to China.
A nuked China will be very very weak. And China recalled the days where the British and French and Japan and USA came to carve her up when China was weak.
China will not allow that to happen again. China will ensure those countries will be weaker than a nuked China, or exist only in name after a nuked China

So please let peace prevail and it is irrelevant whether you think China only got 260 nukes
The lucky ones will be those that die in the first micro second.
Those still alive a year later will wish they gone at the very beginning.

And why the war fought or even started, no one will give a flying f**k as to the reasons.

Even so, China never ever threatened to use nukes. Other than if nuke used on China, China will retaliate and use nukes as well.

So please be peaceful and respectful and more courtesy, and no more phony FONOPs and playing games of who will blink with China with phony FONOPs. Do not play with fire regarding Taiwan. AND DO NOT THREATEN TO NUKE CHINA.

 

[Totoro]

Is it? What are the confirmed specs? If Wiki is to be believed (l/d/wt 13m/2m/42t) JL-2 is larger than Bulava & Trident C4, or similar to Sineva in weight (though being solid propellant it won't match the performance). This would make it about average, instead of particularly small.

One scenario - based on what is possibly a long and very blunt tipped shroud with separation rocket nozzles seen during the 70th anniversary parade - is that JL-2 has a reduced diameter third stage. It could then be the case that the main external difference of JL-3 is a full-diameter third stage, enabling it to fit the same tubes - within the suggested 13x2m envelope, you could build a ~50t missile that way. Performance would then approach M51 at about 10000km with six 100kt-ish MIRVs, which might just suffice.

There aren't confirmed specs for JL-2. I did however try to estimate them from imagery. Post here https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/pl...r-submarine-thread.t6883/page-221#post-577949

I went with 11 m long, roughly 2 m wide.

I also don't know where the reduced third stage idea comes from since from the images we do have of jl-2, it doesn't appear to be reduced at all.

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Image by PLA Daily paper, so it should be legit enough.

 

[Xizor]

And in that same page, do recall this written.

6666666666666666666666666666666666666666666

And as demonstrated so clearly in KSA a few days ago, the Aegis and Patriot systems defending Saudi a joke as the Aegis and Patriot cannot even detect a few sub Mach cruise missiles not to talk of taking them down. Even to now, no one sure where those came from and who flown them. Despite overlapping coverage of those Patriot and Aegis systems.

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How will the Patriot systems in USA defend against ICBMs coming in at speed of Mach 25 when they cannot even detect missiles at sub Mach or even know where the missiles came from despite overlapping coverage?

Allies of the country that nuke China will not go unpunished as well. Whether they could not stop USA or do not want to stop USA or USA do not want to listen to them will be irrelevant to China.
A nuked China will be very very weak. And China recalled the days where the British and French and Japan and USA came to carve her up when China was weak.
China will not allow that to happen again. China will ensure those countries will be weaker than a nuked China, or exist only in name after a nuked China

So please let peace prevail and it is irrelevant whether you think China only got 260 nukes
The lucky ones will be those that die in the first micro second.
Those still alive a year later will wish they gone at the very beginning.

And why the war fought or even started, no one will give a flying f**k as to the reasons.

Even so, China never ever threatened to use nukes. Other than if nuke used on China, China will retaliate and use nukes as well.

So please be peaceful and respectful and more courtesy, and no more phony FONOPs and playing games of who will blink with China with phony FONOPs. Do not play with fire regarding Taiwan. AND DO NOT THREATEN TO NUKE CHINA.

WHOA WHOA ...Hold on a bit right there.

Every Ballistic missile, solid fueled/ liquid fueled / fueled by pixie Dust whatever, can be tracked using Infrared tracking satellites. Infrared Tracking uses the Temperature of the Missile rocket exhaust ( which will be like thousands of degrees hot) to track the missile and calculate the trajectories ( very easy as Ballistic object tracking isn't exactly complicated).
That is where MARV and MIRVs come into play.
After the orbital ( sub-orbital) insertion of the payload, MARVs/MiRVS would make it difficult to track ( there won't be that 1000degree Celsius temperature to get registered on the Infrared Sensors anymore).
Then the tracking can be done only on the re-entry stage ( where the atmospheric friction causes the payload to burn-up). Heat Shields protect the payload.

The whole process takes about 30 minutes. That is plenty time for Quick Reaction missiles/ ABM shields to do their work. Of-course, intercepting multiple-maneuvering- Mach 25+-decoy-aided -Warheads are difficult. But it isn't impossible.

The US has operated a fleet of Infrared Satellites exactly for this ( SBIRS)

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Why do I need to keep repeating this? Why do some people think that the Cold War wasn't a big deal? Why do people have short memory retention?

China needs to work on
1. Diversifying Delivery methods. The Russian Nuclear Torpedo is a good option. Contrary to the claims from think tanks...a submarine remains the most difficult thing to track. A nuclear torpedo is much harder to track even. Other delivery methods include - Stealth Aircrafts (obvious) and Covert insertion ( the next ikea delivery Container miight hide a nuclear warhead...it isn't impossible to pull off. Briefcase nukes were the fad during Cold War).
2. Diversifying Investments into Biological/ Chemical weapons.
3. Developing a fleet of satellites like SBIRS

 

[tidalwave]

space assets would get knocked out long before nuke strikes

 

[shanlung]

WHOA WHOA ...Hold on a bit right there.

Every Ballistic missile, solid fueled/ liquid fueled / fueled by pixie Dust whatever, can be tracked using Infrared tracking satellites. Infrared Tracking uses the Temperature of the Missile rocket exhaust ( which will be like thousands of degrees hot) to track the missile and calculate the trajectories ( very easy as Ballistic object tracking isn't exactly complicated).
That is where MARV and MIRVs come into play.
After the orbital ( sub-orbital) insertion of the payload, MARVs/MiRVS would make it difficult to track ( there won't be that 1000degree Celsius temperature to get registered on the Infrared Sensors anymore).
Then the tracking can be done only on the re-entry stage ( where the atmospheric friction causes the payload to burn-up). Heat Shields protect the payload.

The whole process takes about 30 minutes. That is plenty time for Quick Reaction missiles/ ABM shields to do their work. Of-course, intercepting multiple-maneuvering- Mach 25+-decoy-aided -Warheads are difficult. But it isn't impossible.

The US has operated a fleet of Infrared Satellites exactly for this ( SBIRS)

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Why do I need to keep repeating this? Why do some people think that the Cold War wasn't a big deal? Why do people have short memory retention?

China needs to work on
1. Diversifying Delivery methods. The Russian Nuclear Torpedo is a good option. Contrary to the claims from think tanks...a submarine remains the most difficult thing to track. A nuclear torpedo is much harder to track even. Other delivery methods include - Stealth Aircrafts (obvious) and Covert insertion ( the next ikea delivery Container miight hide a nuclear warhead...it isn't impossible to pull off. Briefcase nukes were the fad during Cold War).
2. Diversifying Investments into Biological/ Chemical weapons.
3. Developing a fleet of satellites like SBIRS

As said by tidalwave, satellites be knocked out first.

And do recall ......

And as demonstrated so clearly in KSA a few days ago, the Aegis and Patriot systems defending Saudi a joke as the Aegis and Patriot cannot even detect a few sub Mach cruise missiles not to talk of taking them down. Even to now, no one sure where those came from and who flown them. Despite overlapping coverage of those Patriot and Aegis systems.

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How will the Patriot systems in USA defend against ICBMs coming in at speed of Mach 25 when they cannot even detect missiles at sub Mach or even know where the missiles came from despite overlapping coverage?

Why do I need to keep repeating that?

And Muricans think they got no sweat to swat down pesky hypersonic warheads weaving about?
And they appeared as dunce and idiots in not even knowing now where the f**k those sub Mach missiles came from knowing only they appeared with big bangs with absolute accuracy. Radar records could not even tell them at all? All those interlocking zones of detections load of Murican bullshit?