Trade War with China

[Arkboy]

So many war hawks here. American business here is a mutually beneficial thing, why ban them. China dont have to do exactly what USA is doing. China should seek its own advantage while avoid american advantage. In other words, hit the american farmers and blue collar workers by tariff their car and food export. That will hit Trump's voters. Tech companies like Apple are not Trump supporters. They hate Trump. So why hit them?

Also please do not spend as much on military as usa. They are falling apart due to these overspending. No sane person will go total war on China, they already have the best land army and nuclear deterance. With home advantage they wont lose on sea and air either. With no extra % gdp on military china will still spend more, further reinforce the position. Unless you are advocating for beating usa on sea away from home in a total war, absolutely no point to spend anymore.

So this is the double edge sword, so to speak. USA military overspending is a large portion that contributes to the now unsustainable 22 trillion debt and expotentially growing... an analogy would be the landlord is going broke, so have to keep raising rent, and the tenants suffer for it. But the tenants can only suffer for so long before they have to move out to a better alternative, hence China /India/Russia and the BRI and other initiatives that offering the nations of the multipolar world a "better deal".....

At the end of the day the catch 22 is that it is precisely American's massive military that is protecting its petrodollar hegemony and hence propping up its unsustainable way of life. Without its powerful military the dollar would have fallen long ago and the quantitative easings would have made USA ended up like hyperinflated Zimbabwe. So the USA military spending is actually protecting its dollar, which in turn allows it to keep writing blank checks and dilluting the savings of the entire world in order to keep on military spending and continuing the perpetual cycle/ American system / world order.

Right now America is essentially increasing the 'taxation' of the entire world to prop up its otherwise unsustainable spending, but it cannot keep doing this forever, no much how powerful its military is, because at some point the tenants themselves will go bankrupt.

 

[tidalwave]

They are compeled to, but tariff is against their interest too. Hitting them is damaging to Chinese economy too, so no need to do more than needed. Reversely, it seems like USA have all the initiative, but when Trump tariff all Chinese goods, they too suffer. If you want Trump out of office, hit those factory workers and farmer, they asked for Trump, and without them you can be sure Trump is losing 2020.

Or not. Throw the war by signing a small concession, let Trump brag he won, so he stay in office. Honestly Trump can do a lot of damage to USA himself, may as well keep him.

Trump is insignificant.

Xi says economy is not as important as self independence. That means if China economic well being depends on US companies that means no good, no banana.

 

[TK3600]

US falling apart due to overspending. Ok. Interesting

There are many reasons, but overspending on military that do not do much productive and spend little on R&D, education and infrastructure is a major reason USA is failing, and China is doing the opposite.

 

[TK3600]

Trump is insignificant.
Xi says economy is not as important as self independence.

And how exactly is banning company for the sake of it help? China already got tariffed, that alone should push self sufficiency. Banning Apple or something makes no difference in that goal.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Well if China has no ambitions to run an empire like the US, it has no use for a burgeoning military that wastes money. It just needs to do enough to keep India and US in check.

Naturally, we Chinese are peaceful, intellectual, and business minded people and don't like chaos and trouble. I know it's probably why we got screwed so many times, but I'm confident the future will be different.

Man, you've got to be kidding. Why would it be different in the future?? Those who rely on other people's civility will die by their sword. Rely only on your own strength.

And although I understand your idea of minimal deterrence, you need to understand that minimal deterrence changes depending on who you are. If you're a small African nation with no resources and plagued by gang wars, then just that nastiness is deterrence enough. If you are North Korea, your deterrence needs to be significantly higher; you need to have the weapons to impose an unsavory cost upon the US. If you are China, a nation perceived to be an existential threat to US hegemony, nothing less than absolutely assured MAD will ultimately hold off Thucydides' trap. And your conventional forces must always be up to the challenge or you will continuously suffer small humiliations that would be irrational to escalate to nuclear conflict. That is not cheap and there can be absolutely no reduction in China's military spending; there must be healthy increases every year.

So many war hawks here. American business here is a mutually beneficial thing, why ban them. China dont have to do exactly what USA is doing. China should seek its own advantage while avoid american advantage. In other words, hit the american farmers and blue collar workers by tariff their car and food export. That will hit Trump's voters. Tech companies like Apple are not Trump supporters. They hate Trump. So why hit them?

Depends on what companies. Companies that don't bring any benefit to China should go, and it will be Beijing's card to play when it deems fit. Please see:

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/trade-war-with-china.t8265/page-537#post-559831
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/trade-war-with-china.t8265/page-537#post-559838

Also please do not spend as much on military as usa. They are falling apart due to these overspending. No sane person will go total war on China, they already have the best land army and nuclear deterance. With home advantage they wont lose on sea and air either. With no extra % gdp on military china will still spend more, further reinforce the position. Unless you are advocating for beating usa on sea away from home in a total war, absolutely no point to spend anymore.

Nobody's saying spend as much as the US; China currently spends less than a third of what the US spends and has a nominal GDP that is roughly 70%. China is under-spending BUT it is far more efficient with its funds. Of course the first goal is to ensure China's safety. Then, it will be to gain dominance over Asia including ROC, SCS (we are currently in this phase). Then, of course, China is set to overtake the US in every way so eventually, it should be able to defeat the US on the high seas as well. It doesn't mean we will ever become a globally aggressive navy like the USN but having the strength is different from having the intent. We need to set the foundations for that type of future though right now by steadily marching in that direction.

 

[TK3600]

So this is the double edge sword, so to speak. USA military overspending is a large portion that contributes to the now unsustainable 22 trillion debt and expotentially growing... an analogy would be the landlord is going broke, so have to keep raising rent, and the tenants suffer for it. But the tenants can only suffer for so long before they have to move out to a better alternative, hence China /India/Russia and the BRI and other initiatives that offering the nations of the multipolar world a "better deal".....

At the end of the day the catch 22 is that it is precisely American's massive military that is protecting its petrodollar hegemony and hence propping up its unsustainable way of life. Without its powerful military the dollar would have fallen long ago and the quantitative easings would have made USA ended up like hyperinflated Zimbabwe. So the USA military spending is actually protecting its dollar, which in turn allows it to keep writing blank checks and dilluting the savings of the entire world in order to keep on military spending and continuing the perpetual cycle/ American system / world order.

Right now America is essentially increasing the 'taxation' of the entire world to prop up its otherwise unsustainable spending, but it cannot keep doing this forever, no much how powerful its military is, because at some point the tenants themselves will go bankrupt.

Interesting point. Lets say USA cut half their carriers, and abandon the f35 program. Basically cut spending by half. You think they can recover the debt while keep empire intact? Maybe tax the rich a bit more if that helps.

 

[tidalwave]

And how exactly is banning company for the sake of it help? China already got tariffed, that alone should push self sufficiency. Banning Apple or something makes no difference in that goal.

Let domestic firms dominate domestic market instead of letting US companies dominate domestic market

 

[Arkboy]

Interesting point. Lets say USA cut half their carriers, and abandon the f35 program. Basically cut spending by half. You think they can recover the debt while keep empire intact? Maybe tax the rich a bit more if that helps.

US might not have much of a choice, if it cuts defense spending (not like it would realistically ever go that route anyway) it would only embolden Beijing and others to take up the power vacuum militaristically. Its best strategy is still China containment, which is exactly what it is doing right now, but I think even US knows it will eventually lose long term and its goal will shift to slowing China's rise rather than preventing it entirely. It is also intentionally shrinking its middle class. It has to start cutting the glut somewhere and it makes sense to keep the elites happy and go after the middle class massess... this is also why in America the civil rights and other freedoms have eroded and degraded. Its expensive to enforce 'rights', and when the going gets tough, 'rights' and 'freedoms' are the first to go out the window.

 

[tidalwave]

There are many reasons, but overspending on military that do not do much productive and spend little on R&D, education and infrastructure is a major reason USA is failing, and China is doing the opposite.

On the contrary , it propell the military industrial complex R&D in developing new weaponries

Most of the commercial tech in US originated from military research. Internet, DARPA, radar tech , cellphone, many Semiconductor projects originated from military

 

[TK3600]

On the contrary , it propell the military industrial complex R&D in developing new weaponries

Which dont benefit economy on the long run. Unless you are actively invading people for profit with enough profit to cover its cost. Impossible.