Companies are avoiding US supply chains to do business with China.
US imports from Vietnam and other countries rise amid China trade war
One Trump Victory: Companies Rethink China
I thought the opposite is happening.
Companies are avoiding US supply chains to do business with China.
US imports from Vietnam and other countries rise amid China trade war
One Trump Victory: Companies Rethink China
I thought the opposite is happening.
Why would you think that the opposite was happening? Do you not know what decoupling means? This is what decoupling means; less business between China and the US while Chinese business is still booming and rising with other countries while American companies have to find other places for cheap labor as China moves up the value chain.
US imports from Vietnam and other countries rise amid China trade war
One Trump Victory: Companies Rethink China
I thought the opposite is happening.
The more I think about this the more it's wrong. China is nothing like the USSR. China's population is greater than that of the US, EU, Japan, Russia added together. China has more STEM graduates than all of them added together by far. It's only China's late start that held it back but China is a very technologically advanced country as it is today and it's got more momentum than anybody. Once China moves ahead, it's going to kill the competition. China's tech ecosystem should outperform all of these countries combined because the population of China is like 4 United States working together. This is what the US fears most. Once China gets into its groove, it will out-innovate the rest of the world, have superior technology in every field, and be impossible to catch up to as they snowball faster and faster. The reason for the recent US freak out is because they are literally seeing this take shape and have realized they have a very late start to stopping this. Relative dependence is for small countries; China truly possesses the resources to be dominant in every technology there is.I worry that the worst case scenario would be if China were to be cut off from the U.S., EU, Japan, and South Korea (all U.S. treaty allies), China could be isolated just like the former USSR and Iran today. Under such isolation, there are certainly domestic technologies to survive off, but the gap measured against the West, South Korea, and Japan could increase.
I totally agree with you that China has the capacity to live off its own technologies, but progress could slow down if the U.S. and allies stop sharing their newest designs. I worry that the worst case scenario would be if China were to be cut off from the U.S., EU, Japan, and South Korea (all U.S. treaty allies), China could be isolated just like the former USSR and Iran today.
The more I think about this the more it's wrong. China is nothing like the USSR. China's population is greater than that of the US, EU, Japan, Russia added together. China has more STEM graduates than all of them added together by far. It's only China's late start that held it back but China is a very technologically advanced country as it is today and it's got more momentum than anybody. Once China moves ahead, it's going to kill the competition. China's tech ecosystem should outperform all of these countries combined because the population of China is like 4 United States working together. This is what the US fears most. Once China gets into its groove, it will out-innovate the rest of the world, have superior technology in every field, and be impossible to catch up to as they snowball faster and faster. The reason for the recent US freak out is because they are literally seeing this take shape and have realized they have a very late start to stopping this. Relative dependence is for small countries; China truly possesses the resources to be dominant in every technology there is.
The Countries With The Most STEM Graduates [Infographic]
Feb 2, 2017
Some estimates see the number of Chinese graduates aged between 25 and 34 rising compared to just 30 percent in the U.S. and Europe. According to the World Economic Forum, STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) has become a pretty big deal in China's flourishing universities. In 2013, 40 percent of Chinese graduates finished a degree in STEM, over twice the share in American third level institutions.
![]()
Actually, the Huawei game is still ongoing. We are not sure if more countries would ban Huawei, but given EU countries' alliance with the U.S., I am leaning toward the EU's eventual ban on the company. Things could be very different for non-U.S. allies along the Belt and Road. Still, losing the EU, Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. would literally be a bifurcation of the future of communication technologies. You might be right that things could turn out to be better for Huawei. Nevertheless, we still live in a world dominated by nation states, and the U.S.-led alliance system matters directly to the very survival of NATO members (including EU), South Korea, and Japan. If pressured to choose between the U.S. and China, most developed nations would still eventually choose the U.S. given their dependence on the U.S. alliance system for survival. Nevertheless, I am not ruling out what you have said. The U.S. alliance system MAY not be as credible as I think, but currently, I see the U.S.-led alliance system and hegemony working just fine. Also, until the next recession, the U.S. economy has been the healthiest since the 1950s.
So can a Korea-US alliance guarantee the survival of South Korea?
In addition, North Korea's survival is reliant on China.
So the reality is that South Korea's survival is actually dependent on:
1. a non-hostile relationship with China
2. China reining in North Korea.
But South Korea's leaders think differently. They want the US to be in the equation.
I don't know if these two countries would be able to withstand pressure from the U.S. in the long run.