Trade War with China

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localizer

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
It's in the world's interest to have multiple superpowers. It can be seen that small states are already playing them against each other on many transactions unlike how the US dictated everything for the last few decades. Now they have bidders for their markets, resources, alliances,..
 
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SpicySichuan

Senior Member
Registered Member
manqiangrexue said:
The bold part is incorrect. Instead, the hegemon has RUN OUT of tools to contain China. After the US tech ban failed to take down Huawei but instead provided it with an opportunity to indigenize and continue operations, it is apparent that the US played this card too late and its tools are all broken/expired. The US tried to play the allies card and everyone with critical technologies said they will continue to do business with China but eliminate US parts. This shows that America's toolbox is quite empty.
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Actually, the Huawei game is still ongoing. We are not sure if more countries would ban Huawei, but given EU countries' alliance with the U.S., I am leaning toward the EU's eventual ban on the company. Things could be very different for non-U.S. allies along the Belt and Road. Still, losing the EU, Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. would literally be a bifurcation of the future of communication technologies. You might be right that things could turn out to be better for Huawei. Nevertheless, we still live in a world dominated by nation states, and the U.S.-led alliance system matters directly to the very survival of NATO members (including EU), South Korea, and Japan. If pressured to choose between the U.S. and China, most developed nations would still eventually choose the U.S. given their dependence on the U.S. alliance system for survival. Nevertheless, I am not ruling out what you have said. The U.S. alliance system MAY not be as credible as I think, but currently, I see the U.S.-led alliance system and hegemony working just fine. Also, until the next recession, the U.S. economy has been the healthiest since the 1950s.
 
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gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
Healthy? US infrastructure is crumbling, their retail sector is imploding, and most new jobs in the US are typically either "gig economy" jobs like working at an Amazon warehouse or driving for Uber. What the rise of Amazon and Uber mean is that the US economy is becoming more dependent on oil for transportation than it ever has been. All it takes is another hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico that hits the refineries there, which seems to happen almost every decade, and oil prices will rise and percolate over all those sectors.

Because of lack of investments in infrastructure a lot of oil from Canada has to traverse the US by train. The US shale business is uneconomic too.

There is more to the economy than stock indexes. If there is an oil shock, China has the public transportation infrastructure to ensure their economy won't fold as easily as the US's. If the US stops buying things, China can just redirect its output internally.

China does have a major weakness in terms of trade links. But they are working on mitigating that.
 
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xiabonan

Junior Member
Josh Luo said:
Actually, the Huawei game is still ongoing. We are not sure if more countries would ban Huawei, but given EU countries' alliance with the U.S., I am leaning toward the EU's eventual ban on the company. Things could be very different for non-U.S. allies along the Belt and Road. Still, losing the EU, Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. would literally be a bifurcation of the future of communication technologies. You might be right that things could turn out to be better for Huawei. Nevertheless, we still live in a world dominated by nation states, and the U.S.-led alliance system matters directly to the very survival of NATO members (including EU), South Korea, and Japan. If pressured to choose between the U.S. and China, most developed nations would still eventually choose the U.S. given their dependence on the U.S. alliance system for survival. Nevertheless, I am not ruling out what you have said. The U.S. alliance system MAY not be as credible as I think, but currently, I see the U.S.-led alliance system and hegemony working just fine. Also, until the next recession, the U.S. economy has been the healthiest since the 1950s.
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What makes you think that the EU will eventually ban Huawei? Especially now that Germany and France have already said they will not do such a thing?
 
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SpicySichuan

Senior Member
Registered Member
xiabonan said:
As Chinese military watchers I think we all know that in the military sphere China bas been under embargo and sanctions by the US and the West for decades. But did it stop China's military development? I think we all know the answer.
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Agree with you! However, China was able to modernize its military because cash-hungry Russia stepped into the game after the West imposed the Tiananmen sanctions. That dependence on Russian aircraft designs, engines, and solid-fuel rockets by itself was and is still a vulnerability. God knows if Russia would suddenly become China's rival if Putin suddenly dies or steps down. Of course, you got exceptions like Chengdu Aircraft Company being able to recently jettison the Russian DNAs. Not sure if more Chinese defense research institutions could slow come up with something that is truly "Chinese."
 
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SpicySichuan

Senior Member
Registered Member
xiabonan said:
What makes you think that the EU will eventually ban Huawei? Especially now that Germany and France have already said they will not do such a thing?
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I don't know if these two countries would be able to withstand pressure from the U.S. in the long run.
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
SteelBird said:
Trump threats more tariff if no deal at G20. I remember last time Trump said he's not ready to sign a deal with China but what I read here seems he wants a deal badly. Further, he seems to feel that Xi doesn't want to sign any deal with him and even not want to meet him that he threats if Xi doesn't attend G20, more tariff will be imposed and immediately.

Trump: If President Xi does not attend G-20, more China tariffs will go into effect immediately
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It would be extremely funny if Xi Jinping attends the G-20 but refuses to meet with Trump, which I think he absolutely should do. Meeting Trump will only make it seems like his threat work. Xi Jinping will look like a pushover.
 
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xiabonan

Junior Member
Josh Luo said:
Agree with you! However, China was able to modernize its military because cash-hungry Russia stepped into the game after the West imposed the Tiananmen sanctions. That dependence on Russian aircraft designs, engines, and solid-fuel rockets by itself was and is still a vulnerability. God knows if Russia would suddenly become China's rival if Putin suddenly dies or steps down. Of course, you got exceptions like Chengdu Aircraft Company being able to recently jettison the Russian DNAs. Not sure if more Chinese defense research institutions could slow come up with something that is truly "Chinese."
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All your arguments so far are based on your wishful thinking and no logic to speak of. All you are saying is a bunch of "what if", what if EU bans Huawei, what if Russia becomes a foe, what if this and what if that, and what if all these things all happen at once and then it will be really bad for China. Yes if all those things happen at once it will be bad for China, but what basis is there for you to think that it will happen? How will Putin suddenly die? How will Europe suddenly ban Huawei and ban China in general? Why do you think it will happen when all the news coming out of Russia and Europe are nothing but the opposite?
 
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