J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

[Blitzo]

I re-read the parts of the article that you pointed out. Let’s examine the entirety of what he actually said pertaining to the radar and I quote,
“The J-20’s fire-control radar is believed to be an active electronically-scanned array (AESA) system developed by the Nanjing Research Institute of Electronics Technology (NRIET, or 14 Institute), equipped with a single front antenna. However, informed sources insist there is still no series-production AESA fighter radar available in China, and all J-20s are temporarily fitted with more conventional systems. At Zhuhai 2018, the Nanjing institute displayed two versions of the KLJ-7A AESA radar, which is intended for the smaller JF-17 Block III export fighter, but similar solutions could probably be installed and integrated on the J-20. Each version of the KLJ-7A features a different method for widening its search angles, which are narrow for AESA antennas. One method features the antenna installed on a gimbal, which allows it to tilt towards the target. The second method uses three antennas: a main, forward-looking antenna, and two small, side-looking antennas. Each method is a copy of Russian electronic scanning radar designs. The Su-35’s N135 Irbis radar features a tilting antenna, and the Su-57’s N036 Byelka radar has a three-antenna array. A single fixed antenna version of the KLJ-7A radar was displayed at the Zhuhai 2016 air show.”

This is my interpretation based on the relevant statement :
“ informed sources insist there is still no series-production AESA fighter radar available in China, and all J-20s are temporarily fitted with more conventional systems.”

Given that the two statements are connected by the word “and”, it would suggest to me that the intended meaning is that the AESA specific to the J-20 is not in series production and is not a general statement on the state of the fighter industry. If his statement is factually correct, all it means to me is that the current AESA design for the J-20 is not finalized.

No, I think he is writing that not only are there no fighter AESA in China that have been series produced (and thus also no fighter AESAs in chinese service), but also that all J-20s lack AESAs and is fitted with a "more conventional system" (more conventional here of course meaning a non-AESA).

The way I interpret that sentence is: "informed sources insist China has no series production fighter AESA, and therefore regarding the topic of what kind of radar J-20 uses, it is fitted with a more conventional non AESA radar".

I think that is the most natural way of reading what he had written.

I could not find any statement that he made that suggested the J-20 EOIRST were “mock ups”. This is what was said and I quote “Nota bene: while J-20s 78232 and 78233 displayed at Zhuhai in November 2018 had real distributed EO sensors, aircraft 78231 was fitted with mock-ups.” His statement to me is his attempt to report facts. If those facts are wrong that should be corrected but it is far different in meaning that he seems to suggest that the state of the EOIRST implementation is entirely mockups

Please read what I wrote more carefully.

I wrote "He also says that some of the J-20s EOIRST sensors were "mock ups" however I think it's been concluded for a while now that what we thought were "mock ups" were really just covers sitting atop the real EOIRST sensor itself."

In other words, what I'm saying is that he is incorrect in suggesting aircraft 78231 was fitted with a mock up EO sensor (which could only refer to J-20's EOIRST) -- but rather that the "mock up" he described as being on 78231 (as well as all other instances of flying J-20s with "mock ups") were actually all covers that overlaid implemented/integrated EOIRSTs beneath them.


I understand he is trying to report facts in the way that he has interpreted them, but his interpretation of what he has seen I believe is incorrect.

I also used to believe that some J-20s may have had their chin EOIRSTs only have mock ups, like aircraft 78231 that he mentions. However upon closer inspection and upon input from some other people who pointed out details, I think it is now a consensus that the so called "mock ups" are really just covers overlying the chin EOIRST sensors, which makes the most amount of sense to explain the way they look as well as the way in which the subsystems on such aircraft would have expected to have been integrated on an aircraft before delivery.


The easy way to sort this out would be for @Deino to maybe contact him given they should have some correspondence as both are writers for Air International, and ask him to clarify what he meant. However I believe my interpretation of what he meant in both cases is the most sensible.

 

[Brumby]

No, I think he is writing that not only are there no fighter AESA in China that have been series produced (and thus also no fighter AESAs in chinese service), but also that all J-20s lack AESAs and is fitted with a "more conventional system" (more conventional here of course meaning a non-AESA).

The way I interpret that sentence is: "informed sources insist China has no series production fighter AESA, and therefore regarding the topic of what kind of radar J-20 uses, it is fitted with a more conventional non AESA radar".

I think that is the most natural way of reading what he had written.

I have already expressed my interpretation but you are of a different opinion. I will leave it as such.

Please read what I wrote more carefully.

I wrote "He also says that some of the J-20s EOIRST sensors were "mock ups" however I think it's been concluded for a while now that what we thought were "mock ups" were really just covers sitting atop the real EOIRST sensor itself."

In other words, what I'm saying is that he is incorrect in suggesting aircraft 78231 was fitted with a mock up EO sensor (which could only refer to J-20's EOIRST) -- but rather that the "mock up" he described as being on 78231 (as well as all other instances of flying J-20s with "mock ups") were actually all covers that overlaid implemented/integrated EOIRSTs beneath them.

He might be incorrect to refer to 78231 as having a mock up but one is not some because some refers to more than one.

I also used to believe that some J-20s may have had their chin EOIRSTs only have mock ups, like aircraft 78231 that he mentions. However upon closer inspection and upon input from some other people who pointed out details, I think it is now a consensus that the so called "mock ups" are really just covers overlying the chin EOIRST sensors, which makes the most amount of sense to explain the way they look as well as the way in which the subsystems on such aircraft would have expected to have been integrated on an aircraft before delivery.

The easy way to sort this out would be for @Deino to maybe contact him given they should have some correspondence as both are writers for Air International, and ask him to clarify what he meant. However I believe my interpretation of what he meant in both cases is the most sensible.

I agree that it would be helpful if Deino can clarify the radar thing because there is substantial public interest. .

 

[Blitzo]

I have already expressed my interpretation but you are of a different opinion. I will leave it as such.

That is fine, but I'm surprised at how it could be interpreted that way.
I'd be interested in how others read it, if I am in the minority or if my reading comprehension is poor or something.

He might be incorrect to refer to 78231 as having a mock up but one is not some because some refers to more than one.

It is true that some is more than one -- however in my defence I was paraphrasing, and it is in reference to additional past in service J-20s we have seen (beyond only 78231 at Zhuhai) which had been seen with the same cover over top of the sensor.
In any case, my point is that EO sensor he believes is a mock up is actually a cover over top of a sensor.

 

[Blitzo]

I'm thinking you are quite likely on thin ice here dude, he's published in "Air International", I suspect his sources are considerably more accurate than your's, but I'm thinking he is a contemporary of Deino's??? I could be wrong and no doubt Deino will clear this up shortly, in any regard there are lots of questions as to how far along the J-20 radar and avionics have come?

No doubt they are well on the way to being "top notch", but as others have insisted, no one with any real knowledge is going to be to terribly specific...

No, there are some mistakes in his piece which are probably because he does not have access to the same sources we have, and because PLA watching is probably not his primary job.

If Deino had written a piece about J-20 I'm sure he wouldn't have made this mistakes.



Merely being published in a magazine or outlet does not make one an expert in every field that you write about.
And I do not consider Mr Butowski an expert in PLA watching and PLA relevant combat aviation, so if he makes some claims that are vastly different to what we've come to establish over the years then I'm going to distrust them.

In other words, what I'm saying is that in many domains of PLA watching places like SDF have much more cumulative credibility and knowledge in aspects of leading edge PLA developments than journalists who happen to be writing about the PLA.

 

[gelgoog]

I think it is a ridiculous notion that China would not have AESA on the J-20A.
They have had naval AESA radars for how many years now?

China has much more advanced semi-conductor manufacturing capabilities than the Russian Federation.
Also the Chinese have a lot of experience on the civilian side of things. Modern cellphone baseband antennas also operate in the microwave range.
The technology is not that different from radar technology.

If the J-10C has it why wouldn't the J-20A?
In fact I would not be surprised if the J-20A radar was better than the F-22 radar.
Simply because it was designed much later.

 

[latenlazy]

I'm thinking you are quite likely on thin ice here dude, he's published in "Air International", I suspect his sources are considerably more accurate than your's

How well has that argument worked out for the last decade of PLA watching?

 

[Hyperwarp]

***

However there are a few parts in his article I find confusing; for example he claims that his sources say there is currently no fighter AESA in series production in China, and that J-20 is using an interim radar.

***.

Being skeptical about the EO system is one thing, but no fighter AESA production in China? Surprising Piotr Butowski said that. Forget the J-20, according to him the J-16 and J-10C also have no AESA?

 

[ougoah]

I don't have sources. That's why I don't make things up and my stuff's more accurate. He's pulling shit out of his behind and his sources make up whatever they feel like. Proven facts these anonymous sources are always full of it and almost never get it close to right.

I honestly don't understand why we even pay attention to any media articles. All of them are meant for the ignorant folks and all of them have a political agenda. How can they possibly ever be accurate?

 

[Deino]

Sorry guys for the late reply but I was struck by the flu L

i had a look at the piece.


Obviously it's entirely sensible to say that it is near impossible to guess what the relative quality of key subsystems like sensors and avionics are like.


However there are a few parts in his article I find confusing; for example he claims that his sources say there is currently no fighter AESA in series production in China, and that J-20 is using an interim radar.

He also says that some of the J-20s EOIRST sensors were "mock ups" however I think it's been concluded for a while now that what we thought were "mock ups" were really just covers sitting atop the real EOIRST sensor itself.

Yes, I think it is a misinterpretation of my own first impression, it might be a mock up, even if by now I think we can be sure it is a cover. Therefore, Yes, that error is mine and he might have picked it up.

I re-read the parts of the article that you pointed out. Let’s examine the entirety of what he actually said pertaining to the radar and I quote,

“The J-20’s fire-control radar is believed to be an active electronically-scanned array (AESA) system developed by the Nanjing Research Institute of Electronics Technology (NRIET, or 14 Institute), equipped with a single front antenna. However, informed sources insist there is still no series-production AESA fighter radar available in China, and all J-20s are temporarily fitted with more conventional systems. …..”

This is my interpretation based on the relevant statement :

“ informed sources insist there is still no series-production AESA fighter radar available in China, and all J-20s are temporarily fitted with more conventional systems.”

That’s actually a point we discussed at Zhuhai and where we left in disagreement. His point was, that he knows the Russian aviation industry so well – undisputable, he is IMO THE EXPERCT on Russia – and all his insiders insist that there is NO Chinese company currently fielding an operational AESA. He cannot explain the reports on the J-16 and J-10C AESA, but all he knows is that it spoke to Russian companies, that were assisting Chinese fighter AESA developments and they confirmed to him, there is none operational yet. I in return can only repeat the other claims, but I don’t have any proof.

Ridiculously stupid article. How can J-10C and J-16 both be officially stated as using AESA and recognised by western government papers and think tanks to be using at least a second generation of Chinese AESA radars? While J-20 uses "conventional" radars?? Most western "insiders" also confirm J-20 is already flying with an AESA. Okay maybe the current AESA is a placeholder for a better one but that's hardly a conventional set. Knowing the production rate will mean the insider knows the ins and outs of the Chinese radar industry very intimately. Such a leaker is highly dubious. Particularly if the information leaked reaches such a public exposure. Any real leaks will be tightly controlled so as to not reveal their hand!


This guy is yet another muppet. I think these journos have no real interest in military affairs and technology. They just write whatever to fill the space and sell articles and magazines. The evidence is in the suggestion that the Zhuhai show's two AESA export models for JF-17 were claimed to be for J-20 The reality is the JF-17 potential export AESAs with side modules are probably better than the ones in Su-57. Russian radar technology as witnessed by the Su-35, is well and truly far behind China already. This should come as no surprise seeing as the Russian Federation has had a 20 year lag with all their industries and experts now lost or retired. One of the export AESAs for JF-17 is claimed to be based on the current J-20's AESA unit's technology. The performance difference between the two can be huge once you consider the size of the radome difference between J-20 and JF-17 and the available power of two high thrust engines compared to a single medium thrust. PAF may very well be ordering one of the two available AESA upgrades for both early block JF-17 and Block 3s. If that goes ahead, it indicates their complete satisfaction with such a high cost upgrade for a budget fighter, proving the small power efficient AESAs are leagues ahead of "conventional" units. This would mean J-20's current "placeholder" AESAs are weapons in and of itself.


Also should add this idiot probably doesn't understand the real difference between different production methods for AESA modules and assembled units. Definitely a journalist. Good at pulling shit out of their ass and couldn't get through high school science. Sound similar to Minnie Chan and co.

Dear @ougoah, I beg you to calm down, do your homework and reconsider. If Piotr claims anything it is for sure not on the same level of “stupid reports like from Minie Chan or so”. He is a heavy weight on Russian Aviation and I thrust him and his word more than mine. Again, I cannot explain this mystery but to simply bash him down as stupid shows only you have no clue. You yourself mention “Most western "insiders" also confirm J-20 is already flying with an AESA.” … but who are these “insiders”? Are they really insiders or just – at least in my case – just like the ordinary data-hamsters collecting all info we get and cutting the most likely and most probable from the unlikely pieces? Therefore name me one “official insider confirmation” we can fully thrust?

I believe Piotr may be one of Deino's cohorts if I'm not mistaken?? if I am mistaken Deino, please do correct me? I thought I had recalled you mentioning his name???

Yes, Piotr is the mastermind on Russian Aviation Industry. I know him since years and finally had the honour to met him at Zhuhai. He is a fantastic chap. A true gentlemen with an knowledge and understanding of the Russian scene I can only dream to have one day for the Chinese stuff. If anyone calls him an “idiot” or “muppet”, then I feel myself offended since in comparison I’m not even a journalist.


Thant however does not make him always correct and especially on Chinese stuff we often enough disagree, but I have the deepest respond for him and his work.

Therefore please @ougoah, calm your tone, shut up and do your homework.

 

[Blitzo]

Sorry guys for the late reply but I was struck by the flu L

No problem, no rush at all. Health comes first.

Yes, I think it is a misinterpretation of my own first impression, it might be a mock up, even if by now I think we can be sure it is a cover. Therefore, Yes, that error is mine and he might have picked it up.

That's very reasonable -- it wasn't so long ago that I thought it was a mock up as well.

That’s actually a point we discussed at Zhuhai and where we left in disagreement. His point was, that he knows the Russian aviation industry so well – undisputable, he is IMO THE EXPERCT on Russia – and all his insiders insist that there is NO Chinese company currently fielding an operational AESA. He cannot explain the reports on the J-16 and J-10C AESA, but all he knows is that it spoke to Russian companies, that were assisting Chinese fighter AESA developments and they confirmed to him, there is none operational yet. I in return can only repeat the other claims, but I don’t have any proof.

That was my thinking behind his "sources" as well.

Piotr is clearly qualified to write about Russian military aviation and obviously has great knowledge in that regard and access to Russian industry sources.


However that doesn't mean he should be treated as an authority for PLA watching, and if he makes any claims that are wildly divergent from what we've established from the usual sources and process, then I would tend to treat his claims as incorrect.

For example, with regards to Chinese fighter AESAs, if his claim is merely formed from talking with Russian industry then I would be very quite skeptical. If anything that would be a very reasonable explanation for why that claim was made.


edit: I certainly wouldn't call Piotr an equivalent to Minnie Chan of course -- however in regards to PLA watching I do not think he offers anything more than your usual open source defence journalist.

His piece on the J-20 for example doesn't offer anything new to us, and a few rather odd claims are made as well.

I'm somewhat surprised that the J-20 piece was allocated to him rather than you, to be honest, considering your respective areas of relative expertise and focus, but I won't speculate too much about the magazine's editorial decisions.

Being skeptical about the EO system is one thing, but no fighter AESA production in China? Surprising Piotr Butowski said that. Forget the J-20, according to him the J-16 and J-10C also have no AESA?

To quote the relevant part directly: "The J-20’s fire-control radar is believed to be an active electronically-scanned array (AESA) system developed by the Nanjing Research Institute of Electronics Technology (NRIET, or 14 Institute), equipped with a single front antenna. However, informed sources insist there is still no series-production AESA fighter radar available in China, and all J-20s are temporarily fitted with more conventional systems."

So yeah, I am only able to conclude that he is saying there is no series production AESA fighter radars in China wholesale, I think it's written fairly black and white.


It's interesting because he obviously correctly noted the KLJ-7A AESAs that were displayed at Zhuhai airshow last year, however the way it is written almost makes it sound like he believes that those systems may be the first prospective mass produced fighter AESAs for China.

OTOH, from my perspective, it is pretty well established in the past that for key systems like fighter radars, China would not allow export of a given level of advancement unless a greater level of advancement or capability was already in service domestically. So seeing radars like KLJ-7A AESAs being offered for export says to me that the PLA would've at least had domestic fighter AESAs of similar or likely greater level of capability in mass production and a sufficient level of service before releasing it for export.