Trade War with China

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No Mangi, here again, you're showing your ignorance, I can assure you, I have an Italian made Pinarello Prince I'm the one who just told you the Prince was now made in TAIWAN. I can assure you, your 400 dollar Chinese copy of a Pinarello is not a true assymetrical Pinarello.

and this is indeed the essence of Mr. Trump's point of renegotiating with China, China has attempted to copy a high end Pinarello, and they market the Chinarello as a Pinarello, as for material, the real Taiwan Prince is made with very, very high integrity carbon fibre, and the geometry is indeed much more complicated than you realize... so enjoy your bike, you would probably be happier now if you were out riding, I know I would be...

Intellectual property rights are central to the trade issue, and the Pinarello name is trademarked, to sell your bike on ebay as a Pinarello is considered fraud, but lots of folks are attempting to do just that... anyway, good night....
When is a Pinarello not a Pinarello? When it is a Chinarello
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LOL!
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
No Mangi, here again, you're showing your ignorance, I can assure you, I have an Italian made Pinarello Prince I'm the one who just told you the Prince was now made in TAIWAN.
1. Taiwan, ROC is in China. 2. You don't have to assure me; I can read back what you wrote LOL. You said your frame was made in Italy and that some frames are made in Taiwan, not that the newer ones were, indicating that you thought that the Prince line was made in Italy. There are articles that date back as far as 2008 (could be further; didn't check) that describe Pinarello's process of having a frame made in China and then painted in Italy to be branded as "Made in Italy." I don't know how far back you'd have to go to find a Prince actually made in Italy but I doubt you have one; I don't know if one even exists, and if it did, that bike would be so old it has no relevance to modern cycling, which would explain why I don't know about it.

I can assure you, your 400 dollar Chinese copy of a Pinarello is not a true assymetrical Pinarello.
See, you have a reading comprehension problem. I always reiterated that it was NOT a Pinarello; it was something ELSE, something SUPERIOR, both in testing, and in ride experience. And its manufacturers didn't call it a Chinarello; it's a black carbon unbranded frame that riders call the Chinarello. That you keep telling me it's something else despite my telling YOU that it's something else shows me your ignorance coupled with your lack of reading comprehension.

and this is indeed the essence of Mr. Trump's point of renegotiating with China, China has attempted to copy a high end Pinarello, and they market the Chinarello as a Pinarello
Every person buying out of China understands it's a Chinese unbranded frame. The only ones painted as Pinarellos are the ones the customer requested to be by custom paint. I would never do that since I find absolutely not value in expensive branding. As a matter of fact, I love the feeling of flying past people who spent $12K on their bikes with my black unbranded frame.

as for material, the real Taiwan Prince is made with very, very high integrity carbon fibre, and the geometry is indeed much more complicated than you realize... so enjoy your bike, you would probably be happier now if you were out riding, I know I would be...
Yeah, the type of carbon fiber that scored 5 points lower than the $400 Chinese one LOL. The geometry is likley more complex than I realize but it's not more complicated than a Chinese factory can realize. You do understand it's still just a shape, right? And it's not even the ultimate shape; Chinese manufacturers can and have improved on it providing riders with a cheap training bike that can surprisingly beat their expensive "Italian" race-day bike.

Intellectual property rights are central to the trade issue, and the Pinarello name is trademarked, to sell your bike on ebay as a Pinarello is considered fraud, but lots of folks are attempting to do just that... anyway, good night....
Ain't my thing; to pretend to be Pinarello is to idolize Pinarello. I have much more admiration for the Chinese people who made this machine that is cheaper and superior to Pinarello, so calling it a Pinarello is an insult. If I were to sell a Chinarello, it would be marked as a bike superior to the Pinarello by testing and ride experience.
 
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tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
I was just giving an example. But China still doesn't have any photo-lithography machine tool manufacturers. Like I said, there is a total of THREE manufacturers worldwide. Europe, the United States, and Japan. With the Japanese vendor being way behind the other two. All the semiconductor factories the Chinese are building will rely on those tools. Due to sanctions the Chinese can only buy tools which are two generations behind as is. China is still behind even in process engineering, which isn't exactly simple either. Even with all the IP theft SMIC has done to TSMC they are still way behind in process engineering. i.e. how to actually use the tools to produce good performance chips.

Process might not matter as much in some parts of the military segment, like most weapons systems, but it does matter in the consumer sector. It means the chips will either use more power or will have less performance. As for "Moore's Law being dead" people have been claiming that since the 1970s. It slowed down in the past decade but it has not stopped yet. There is a roadmap to continue the process improvements for at least another decade.

Back when the F-22 came out, it used leading edge processes in the processors it came with, the radar also required a leading edge process. Now, that over a decade has passed, those processes are old hat. At the time those processors were required to do signal processing for the AESA radar. However the thing with radar algorithms is that the more computing power you can dedicate to them the more accurate the results you will get. China will always be two process generations behind due to current trade laws. This can as little as 4 or as many as 6 years behind the leading edge. Now that people are focused on AI even the current processes are not dense enough for the required applications. e.g. autonomous driving. these technologies rather obviously also have military applications. DARPA originally sponsored autonomous driving technology in the USA for example. This was intended to be used in logistics trucks and the like, but could be used in other applications as well.

Being two processes behind means that while, for example, you can put a 32GB NAND Flash chip on a smartphone, the other competitor, with a leading edge process, can put a 128GB NAND Flash chip which takes the same volume inside the smartphone. You have a dual-core chip, they have an eight-core chip. i.e. it's the difference between competing at the top end of the market, where most of the profit is, and being at the bottom end of the market, with razor-thin margins.

You claim at one point it will cease to matter. But the thing is, new applications always come up, once it was 3D graphics, then higher screen resolutions, right now, it is AI applications.

China has had some successes in the machine tool industry. Like for example when they bought KUKA in Germany (a deal which I'm still unsure how the Germans even allowed to pass). Can you even remember the name of a single heavy construction machine vendor from China? Because I sure can't. Let alone precision machine tools.

China has had successes in the solar cell and battery cell markets but the semiconductor market will be a lot tougher to crack.

AMEC has 90nm lithography equipments.

ASML is the predominant supplier to China currently.

As long as Chinese companies made Semiconductor products, China government can block foreign supplier and purchase domestic one. Now it's trade war, domestically anything goes, no limit.
 
oops
Alibaba's Jack Ma: Trade war has killed pledge to create 1 million US jobs
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Chinese tech billionaire Jack Ma's promise to create 1 million new US jobs is the latest casualty of the trade war.
The Alibaba (
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) chief grabbed attention at the start of last year when
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following a meeting with Donald Trump, who was president elect at the time.

But in an interview published late Wednesday by China's official news agency, Xinhua, Ma said the waves of new tariffs imposed by Washington and Beijing in recent months have undermined the plan.

"This promise was on the basis of friendly China-US cooperation and reasonable bilateral trade relations, but the current situation has already destroyed that basis," Ma said. "This promise can't be completed."

A spokeswoman for Alibaba, China's biggest e-commerce company, confirmed Ma's comments to CNN.

Analysts had already
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, which Alibaba announced after Trump and Ma met at Trump Tower in New York in January 2017.

The vague promise wasn't based on Alibaba investing in the United States to build factories or fulfillment centers. Instead, Ma talked about stimulating trade by helping American small businesses sell their products to consumers in China and elsewhere in Asia.

In the Xinhua interview, Ma said Alibaba "will not stop promoting the healthy development of China-US trade."

He already voiced his fears about the trade war this week, telling investors it could drag on for as long as 20 years.

"It's going to last long, it's going to be a mess," he
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Tuesday in Hangzhou, the city where Alibaba is based.
 
now I read
The Heat: China-US trade dispute escalated to new height
2018-09-20 10:25 GMT+8
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The United States announced tariffs on another 200 billion dollars' worth of imports from China starting next week, which will go up to 25 percent in January from the present 10 percent.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump threatened to tax the remaining 267 billion dollars in imports if China fights back. Beijing said it had no choice but to retaliate against the US with tariffs on 60 billion US dollars' worth of its exported goods.

According to Geng Shuang, China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, China took countermeasures to protect its legitimate rights and interests and safeguard the global order of free trade. Moreover, the US action has brought new uncertainty to the trade negotiations between the two sides.

Zhao Hai, an assistant research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that trade negotiation was pushed further because of the capricious actions by the Trump administration.

"Beijing is receiving the mixed message," said Zhao. "Trump seemed to reach out for a fair negotiation, but at the same time he was slapping tariffs from the back." Zhao believes that Trump feels satisfied with his trade policies and is highly likely to go along the road until all imports from China are taxed.

The escalating tariff war triggered more concerns among US economic experts. Saruhan Hatipoglu, former CEO of Business Environment Risk Intelligence, said that the trade war should not have gone this far.

As the 60 billion US dollars' worth of products that China imposed tariffs on made up the last part of all US exports to China, it is widely discussed whether China has run out of options. Hatipoglu gave his answer: Not yet.

"China is not tit-for-tat in exports, but they have other avenues, like currency," said Hatipoglu. "Remember what happened to the US stock market in August 2015 when Chinese currency lost value? And stock market gives a lot of emphasis to this president.”

Other than that, the US companies operating in the Chinese market are under potential threats once the trade war continued.

Unlike big companies like Apple, who have enough political influence to get some products out of the tariff list, the most hurt section consists of small to medium size companies who rely largely on intermediate goods from China.

The most controversial part of the present trade tactics by the Trump administration is not the increasing pressure on US consumers, but the belief that once the trade deficit is closed, the cozy lives of the American people also come to an end. Counterintuitive as it might sound, the logic is quite simple.

"We spend less on the products that we can't make cheaply, and more on American stuff that bears much more value and create more jobs," said Hatipoglu. "If you are a developed country, and your consumers are strong, you are going to have a trade deficit, period.”

Jack Ma, who recently stepped down as Alibaba's chairman, said that the trade war can last for decades to come. Amy Holmes, a political commentator and co-host of the public television show "In Principle," said that China has a much longer planning horizon both economically and politically than the US and that it can wait out the present administration.

Some opinions indicated that Trump, as a businessman, only wants to secure an economic victory rather than a political, long-term, comprehensive reassurance of the US dominance to the world.

Others have different views. Hatipoglu, for instance, said that the trade war kicked off a fundamental attitude change to Beijing's economy.

"It's not just about tariffs, it's about China 2025 and 2030," said Hatipoglu. "Three out of five largest start-ups are Chinese, and technology services in China grew 30 percent in the first quarter on a year-on-year basis. China has evolved from a low to an advanced manufacturing country, or even more, a high tech country."

However, the full speed development of China was based on its previous strong tie with the US and has not grown to be a real threat to the US economy.

"Growing a bigger pie with China, instead of competing for one small pie, is a better strategy for the US," said Zhao Hai.

Ryan Patel, a global business executive, believed that despite all the chaos going on, the two countries would eventually come to the negotiating table as a result of the deeply entrenched economic interests.

"There is going to be a deal, and the remaining problem is when," said Ryan. "Both countries won't back down until they get a win-win deal. But it's clear that the US and China need each other, and there is no plan B in that sense.
***
the end of that article is kinda optimistic, so I'll say something else, actually repeat what I said in a bar this week: if this trade war escalated, China would slash the export of rare-earth elements

cheers
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
You'd have to be so ignorant to say that China does not understand the importance of building up a robust machine tool industry. Do you still imagine China only produce clothes, toys, and other cheap labour intensive products?

Machinery and electronics products are now top Chinese export products, and China has been the number 1 producer of CNC machines in terms of total manufacturing value for years now.

In terms of CNC machines, China has completely dominated the low-end market, which is a market that's still rapidly growing both domestically and internationally, and China has been gaining a strong foothold in high-end CNC machines in recent years too.

This phenomenon is not limited to CNC machines. It is everywhere. On the low end, Chinese companies dominate and drive away foreign competitors, and on the medium to high end, some Chinese firms are starting to gain a foothold, mastering some key technologies and learning to do some others, and on the ultra-high-end, a number of Western firms still dominate.

However, as much as desire independence and control of key technologies, we also know that we could only improve by learning and trading with others.

This path has proven to be successful. I think people here should be most familiar with the achievements of this policy. Merely 20 years ago China could barely build any new modern warships, fighter jets, transport plane, and submarines.
China always manufacture the metal working machines for himself, he bought only the medium/top end ones from abroad.

I have fifteen years old pictures from Chinese factories that showing (apart from terrible working conditions) only Chinese lathes / metalforming machines.
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Actually it showing minimal cnc export from China.

Today we have them all and we can build them all, and we achieved these milestones under constant Western sanctions for military related products and machinery.

China has less trade restrictions than say Russia.
And China enjoy the current level of international trade due to the 70s USA policy of "divide and conquer ", by separating CCCP and PRC from each other with the offer of free trade with USA.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
I was just giving an example. But China still doesn't have any photo-lithography machine tool manufacturers. Like I said, there is a total of THREE manufacturers worldwide. Europe, the United States, and Japan. With the Japanese vendor being way behind the other two. All the semiconductor factories the Chinese are building will rely on those tools. Due to sanctions the Chinese can only buy tools which are two generations behind as is. China is still behind even in process engineering, which isn't exactly simple either. Even with all the IP theft SMIC has done to TSMC they are still way behind in process engineering. i.e. how to actually use the tools to produce good performance chips.

Process might not matter as much in some parts of the military segment, like most weapons systems, but it does matter in the consumer sector. It means the chips will either use more power or will have less performance. As for "Moore's Law being dead" people have been claiming that since the 1970s. It slowed down in the past decade but it has not stopped yet. There is a roadmap to continue the process improvements for at least another decade.

Back when the F-22 came out, it used leading edge processes in the processors it came with, the radar also required a leading edge process. Now, that over a decade has passed, those processes are old hat. At the time those processors were required to do signal processing for the AESA radar. However the thing with radar algorithms is that the more computing power you can dedicate to them the more accurate the results you will get. China will always be two process generations behind due to current trade laws. This can as little as 4 or as many as 6 years behind the leading edge. Now that people are focused on AI even the current processes are not dense enough for the required applications. e.g. autonomous driving. these technologies rather obviously also have military applications. DARPA originally sponsored autonomous driving technology in the USA for example. This was intended to be used in logistics trucks and the like, but could be used in other applications as well.

Being two processes behind means that while, for example, you can put a 32GB NAND Flash chip on a smartphone, the other competitor, with a leading edge process, can put a 128GB NAND Flash chip which takes the same volume inside the smartphone. You have a dual-core chip, they have an eight-core chip. i.e. it's the difference between competing at the top end of the market, where most of the profit is, and being at the bottom end of the market, with razor-thin margins.

You claim at one point it will cease to matter. But the thing is, new applications always come up, once it was 3D graphics, then higher screen resolutions, right now, it is AI applications.

China has had some successes in the machine tool industry. Like for example when they bought KUKA in Germany (a deal which I'm still unsure how the Germans even allowed to pass). Can you even remember the name of a single heavy construction machine vendor from China? Because I sure can't. Let alone precision machine tools.

China has had successes in the solar cell and battery cell markets but the semiconductor market will be a lot tougher to crack.

I think you need to do your home work first before you open your mouth What China semiconductor 2 generation behind?
Kirin just unveiled Kirin 980 which is the first 7nm SOC which will eat snapdragon lunch Heck qualcomm wont have any 7nm SOC until late or even next year
Intel is so behind on even 10nm Chip that they keep delaying the chip production meanwhile the competitor TSMC already produced 7nm chip
Huawei promises its 7nm Kirin 980 processor will destroy the Snapdragon 845
More power, delivered more efficiently

By
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Aug 31, 2018, 8:30am EDT
dunkonsnapdragon.0.jpg


Chinese semiconductor is now gearing for 10nm chip production look it up in this forum

In the past Chinese semiconductor was behind because the industry take an easy way out they don't want to invest in capital intensive industry like semiconductor It is very expensive and low margin
That is why it leave no alternative but the government has to do it and now China go gang buster in investing in chip industry . but I concede the will be time lag of 1 to 2 years

And China do make their own semiconductor equipment not as good as ASML but give them sometime they will catch up
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Domestic Equipment Suppliers in China Seek Both Semiconductor and Solar Industry Growth

by Lily Feng and Dan Tracy, SEMI Industry Research & Statistics

About 80 domestic companies (including joint ventures) in China are devoted to semiconductor equipment research and manufacturing. Many of these domestic equipment manufacturers are research institutes rooted in and/or transformed from military industrial entities with sales limited to colleges and research institutions. With the emergence of the semiconductor industry, however, a strong and viable equipment industry in China is desired to support and supply the fabs based there.

Domestic companies play a role in this and a number of them have a prominent position in the local equipment manufacturing market. As the table below shows, domestic companies are active in many product segments of the semiconductor equipment market. Programs and initiatives are in place to encourage investment and development of domestically manufactured equipment, and as a result, some local Chinese equipment vendors have developed or are developing both 200 mm and 300 mm tools. Collaboration among fabs and domestic equipment companies also has quietly taken shape to co-develop the critical process tools and process recipes for 0.25 μm-0.18 μm process technologies. In certain cases, collaboration exists down to 45 nm process technologies.

upload_2018-9-20_9-20-42.jpeg

ACM: ACM Research, Inc.; AMEC: Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment, Inc.; CECT: China Electronics Technology Group Corporations (various companies rooted in research institutes); Hiway: Hiway Systems International, Inc.; JingYi: Beijing JingYi Century Automatic Equipment Co. Ltd.; JYT: BeiJing JingYunTong Vacuum Equipment Co. Ltd.; LZR: LanZhou Rapid Equipment Manufacturing Co. Ltd.; NMC: North Microelectronics, Inc.; SevenStar: Beijing SevenStar HuaChuang Electronics Co. Ltd; SIAYUAN: Shen Yang SIA YUAN; SKY: SKY Technology Development Co. Ltd; SMEE: Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. Ltd.; XAUT: Xi’an University of Technology Crystal Growing Research Institution ; ZKX: BeiJing ZhongKeXin Electronics Equipment Co. Ltd.

Compared to overseas competitors, these companies are smaller in terms of overall revenues, though revenue has been growing steadily over the past several years (Chart below). Growing investments in solar cell and module manufacturing in China are key revenue growth drivers for the domestic companies in China. (Sales into LED and other markets account for the difference between the Total Sales versus combined semiconductor equipment plus solar equipment sales in the chart).
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Via JSCh. sofar there is no restriction on Lithograph technology.But it may come someday.
China was behind because of the legacy of chip industry. China started very late in semiconductor But the next generation of Chip will be quantum and AI Chip and China is now on par if not leading vis a vis US
The biggest share o Chip is the memory chip and China is gearing for production of 14 nm chip the end of the year

Three China foundries gearing up for transition to sub-10nm process technology
Cindy Yu, Taipei; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES
Thursday 24 May 2018

Semiconductor Manufacturing International (SMIC) and Huali Microelectronics, and memory foundry specialist Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) are all gearing up for transition to sub-10nm process technology with respective deployments kicking off this year.

SMIC has reportedly ordered a set of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) production equipment from ASML for nearly US$120 million. The largest China-based pure-play foundry is looking to enter risk production of chips built using 14nm FinFET process in the first half of 2019, and will move forward with its plan to incorporate the EUV technology into its 7nm process, according to company sources.

SMIC is expected to receive its first EUV production tools in early 2020 enabling the foundry to step up deployments in the sub-10nm processes, the sources said.

SMIC has revised upward its capex target for 2018 to US$2.3 billion from US$1.9 billion. Capex this year will be used for advanced process R&D, equipment purchases and capacity expansions, the company disclosed previously.

SMIC co-CEO Liang Mong-song will play a key role in assisting the company to accelerate the development of advanced process technology. Liang said at the company's most recent investors meeting that SMIC will kick off risk production of its 14nm FinFET process and venture into the AI (artificial intelligence) chip sector in the first half of 2019 after entering volume production of 28nm HKC+ process in the second half 2018.

Fellow 12-inch foundry Huali has installed ASML's TWINSCAN NXT:1980Di immersion lithography system at its FAB6, where the company will be fabricating 14nm FinFET chips, according to company sources. Huali will be investing a total of CNY38.7 billion (US$6.06 billion) in the construction of FAB6, which is designed for production capacity of 40,000 12-inch wafers monthly.

Huali expects to begin pilot operations at FAB6 by the end of 2018, and have the new fab ready for commercial production by the end of 2022. The fab will focus on the fabrication of logic ICs built using 28nm, 14nm and more advanced process technologies.

Memory-IC foundry YMTC under China's state-owned Tsinghua Unigroup has its first 193nm immersion lithography system delivered recently, according to company sources. The equipment priced at US$72 million will be used for the production of 20nm and 14nm chips.

As YMTC is gearing up for volume production of its in-house developed flash memory chips, the company will be engaged in equipment installations at its factory site in Wuhan over the next several months, the sources said. YMTC plans to build a total of three 3D NAND flash fabs for US$24 billion.

YMTC recently held a ceremony to mark equipment move-in at its first 12-inch fab designed for 300,000 wafers in monthly capacity. Construction of the fab was completed in September 2017, and the fab is ready for volume production later in 2018, the sources indicated.

YMTC has obtained its first orders for commercial production of over 10,000 32-layer 3D NAND flash chips, Charles Kau, acting chairman of YMTC and executive VP of Tsinghua Unigroup, was quoted in previous reports. The company is looking to be capable of producing 64-layer 128Gb 3D NAND products in 2019 to narrow its technological gap with industry leaders within two years.


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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
China should be looking at a future where there's no trade with the US regardless. That's the way to negate people like Trump. Trump attacks the US's closest allies. You think Trump can rally the world to embargo China into his cause? And for what reason? Because they don't want China advancing in technology and wants it to commit to that in writing where they can punish China if it dares to commit the crime of advancing? That's why trade is being used as a front. If it were really about fair trade why not just engineer trade to be so-called equal instead of this dance with tariffs. No need for negotiation. No, Trump is threatening it all. Trump want something beyond trade.

I'll let you in on a secret... The US can't leave China alone. China has its own economic ecology of over a billion people that they don't control. So do not think they can get the world to ignore China like it were a small banana republic. Just look at Hollywood as an example. They keep threatening to leave China because of what they think is unfair treatment in China. Well why don't they? Get out! It's not like Chinese movies compete with them internationally. They hold a monopoly on world markets yet they still want in. Simply, they can't make money if they're not in China. Look at Google and how they thought they were bigger than China to then take on China in thinking somehow it's a greater loss to China if they weren't there. Google set the stage for every corporation in the world not to mess with China. And now Google is seeking a way back in. Google is big without China and yet they still want in. All these successful entities without China means it goes beyond money. It's also about power. You even see today how the US government is questioning the power these types of companies have because they can sway elections. The US is no different from these corporations so don't be manipulated by talk of how the US is doing better than China and that's how they'll get everything they want from China. Just like they think China will always need them and the US turning its back on China will result in upheavals and a revolution in their favor. Yeah the Chinese don't start a revolution because their human rights are being violated by their own government but they'll start one if they think Beijing is at fault for losing the love of the US... They need China because they know it exists. That's why China will always have that card. They will always want in.
 
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