China's strategy in Korean peninsula

broadsword

Brigadier
@Phead128 made an interesting idea.

Hwasong-15 can be construed as the 'first-strike' platform variant of DF-41. Given China's 'no-first-use' doctrine, the DF-41 can only be used as a 'second-strike' retailiation platform. Offshoring long-range strike to NK allows China to bypass the 'no-first use' doctrine by offshoring nuke usage to a third-party state whereby Chinese cities are immune to second-strike response.

It certainly doesn't hurt that both China and NK view US as an enemy.

If only offshoring is as simple as offshoring office work to India. Great going with your first post. I see what you did there.
 
@Phead128 made an interesting idea.

Hwasong-15 can be construed as the 'first-strike' platform variant of DF-41. Given China's 'no-first-use' doctrine, the DF-41 can only be used as a 'second-strike' retailiation platform. Offshoring long-range strike to NK allows China to bypass the 'no-first use' doctrine by offshoring nuke usage to a third-party state whereby Chinese cities are immune to second-strike response.

It certainly doesn't hurt that both China and NK view US as an enemy.
your plan is cunning, just you might want to address
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now noticed in Twitter:
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No link between the closedown of China-DPRK Friendship Bridge on Dec 11, which is due to maintenance reason, and China's implementation of the UN Security Council resolutions: Chinese Foreign Ministry

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taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
@Phead128 made an interesting idea.

Hwasong-15 can be construed as the 'first-strike' platform variant of DF-41. Given China's 'no-first-use' doctrine, the DF-41 can only be used as a 'second-strike' retailiation platform. Offshoring long-range strike to NK allows China to bypass the 'no-first use' doctrine by offshoring nuke usage to a third-party state whereby Chinese cities are immune to second-strike response.

It certainly doesn't hurt that both China and NK view US as an enemy.
You just underestimated a very basic human instinct of survival (NK). Kim may sounds and acts "crazy", but he is not stupid, neither is China.

When you offshore a work to another person, you want to guarantee the delivery of said product when you demand. Can there be such guarantee in offshoring a nuke? The answer is surely NO. What if NK "first strike" when China does not want to? Or NK refuse to "first strike" when China want? Once that thing is in another person's hand and you have absolutely no control of its usage, it is NOT an assets, it becomes liability.

To be honest, no nuclear power (China included) wants (wishes) anybody else to have nukes, selfish it is, but truth indeed. It is not like sharing a car.
 
now I read
China urges parties to consider "suspension for suspension" proposal in Korean Peninsula
Xinhua| 2017-12-09 18:14:48
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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated on Saturday the call for all parties to the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue to seriously consider the "suspension for suspension" proposal put forward by China.

He made the remarks at a seminar on international relations and China's diplomacy in 2017.

Wang said that the hope of peace has not yet been destroyed, and the prospect of negotiations to solve the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue still exists.

He noted that the situation on the Korean Peninsula is still deep in a vicious circle of demonstrating strength and confrontation, and the outlook is not optimistic.

He said that all parties need to make efforts to take steps to ease the situation and bring the situation out of the "black hole" of confrontation. He called on parties to create the necessary conditions and atmosphere for the resumption of dialogue and negotiations.

China's suspension-for-suspension initiative calls for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) to suspend its nuclear and missile activities in exchange for the suspension of large-scale U.S.-ROK (Republic of Korea) military exercises.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
China building network of refugee camps along border with North Korea
Document suggests at least five camps are being set up as Beijing prepares for possible influx of refugees should Kim Jong-un’s regime collapse

Tom Phillips in Beijing

Tuesday 12 December 2017 01.05 ESTLast modified on Tuesday 12 December 2017 08.41 EST


China is quietly building a network of refugee camps along its 880-mile (1,416km) border with North Korea as it braces for the human exodus that a conflict or the potentially messy collapse of Kim Jong-un’s regime might unleash.

The existence of plans for the camps, first reported in English by the Financial Times last week, emerged in an apparently leaked internal document from a state-run telecoms giant that appears to have been tasked with providing them with internet services.

The China Mobile document, which has circulated on social media and overseas Chinese websites since last week, reveals plans for at least five refugee camps in Jilin province.

The document, which the Guardian could not independently verify, says: “Due to cross-border tensions … the [Communist] party committee and government of Changbai county has proposed setting up five refugee camps in the county.”

It gives the names and locations of three such facilities: Changbai riverside, Changbai Shibalidaogou and Changbai Jiguanlizi. The New York Times reportedthat centres for refugees were also planned in the cities of Tumen and Hunchun.

A spokesman for China’s foreign ministry declined to confirm the camps’ existence at a regular press briefing on Monday but did not deny they were being built. “I haven’t seen such reports,” Lu Kang told reporters.

The question was purged from the foreign ministry’s official transcript of the briefing, as regularly happens with topics raised by foreign journalists that are considered politically sensitive or inconvenient.

The leaked document contains the name and telephone number of a China Mobile employee who drafted it but calls to that number went unanswered on Tuesday. The construction of the camps appears to reflect growing concern in Beijing about the potential for political instability – or even regime collapse – in North Korea.

Cheng Xiaohe, a North Korea specialist from Renmin University in Beijing, said while he could not confirm whether the document was genuine, it would be irresponsible for China not to make such preparations.

“Tensions are high on the Korean peninsula … it is on the brink of war. As a major power and a neighbouring country, China should make plans for all eventualities.”


Jiro Ishimaru, a Japanese documentary maker who runs a network of citizen journalists inside North Korea and on the Chinese side of the border, said a contact in Changbai county had recently told him that while they had not seen signs of camps being built there, they “had heard there are plans to build a facility”.

Tensions on the Korean peninsula have soared this year as the US president, Donald Trump, has stepped up pressure on his North Korean counterpart and Pyongyang has accelerated its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes.

Trump has baited Kim with the nickname “Little Rocket Man” and threats of military action, while Kim has responded with insults of his own, and a succession of nuclear and missile tests that have brought two new rounds of UN sanctions.

Following its latest intercontinental ballistic missile test on 29 November, Pyongyang claimed the ability to strike anywhere on US soil.

In an interview with the Guardian in Beijing on Monday, Dennis Rodman, the NBA star turned would-be peacemaker, played down fears of a catastrophic nuclear conflict and denied Kim, whom he calls his friend, was “going to try and bomb or kill anyone in America”.

“We ain’t gonna die, man, come on, no … It’s not like that,” Rodman insisted, urging Trump to use him as an intermediary to engage with Kim. He described the verbal war between Trump and Kim as “a chess game” that should not be taken too seriously.

Beijing seems less certain. Last week one official newspaper in Jilin, the Chinese province closest to North Korea’s nuclear test site, hinted at that nervousness with a full-page article offering tips on how to react to a nuclear incident.

Iodine tablets, masks and soap were useful allies in the event of such a catastrophe, readers of the Jilin Daily learned.

Additional reporting by Wang Zhen and Justin McCurry in Tokyo.
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solarz

Brigadier
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Jiro Ishimaru, a Japanese documentary maker who runs a network of citizen journalists inside North Korea and on the Chinese side of the border, said a contact in Changbai county had recently told him that while they had not seen signs of camps being built there, they “had heard there are plans to build a facility”.

In other words, there's nothing actually happening.
 

solarz

Brigadier
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Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has softened the U.S. stance on possible talks with North Korea, calling it "unrealistic" to expect the nuclear-armed country to come to the table ready to give up a weapons of mass destruction program that it invested so much in developing.

Tillerson said President Donald Trump endorses this position.

Tillerson's remarks Tuesday come two weeks after North Korea conducted a test with a missile that could potentially carry a nuclear warhead to the U.S. Eastern Seaboard — a milestone in its decades-long drive to pose an atomic threat to its American adversary that Trump has vowed to prevent, using military force if necessary.

"We are ready to talk any time North Korea would like to talk. And we are ready to have the first meeting without preconditions," Tillerson said at the Atlantic Council-Korea Foundation Forum.

He said the North would need to hold off on its weapons testing. This year, the North has conducted more than 20 ballistic missile launches and one nuclear test explosion, its most powerful yet.

"Let's just meet and we can talk about the weather if you want to. We can talk about whether it's a square table or a round table if that's what you are excited about," Tillerson said. "But can we at least sit down and see each other face to face and then we can begin to lay out a map, a road map, of what we might be willing to work towards."

'Very realistic' approach
Although Tillerson said the goal of U.S. policy remained denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, he said it was "not realistic to say we're only going to talk if you come to the table ready to give up your program. They've too much invested in it. The president is very realistic about that as well."

Baik Tae-hyun, spokesperson of Seoul's Unification Ministry, said of Tillerson's comments that Seoul wishes for talks to "happen soon" if they contribute to the goal of finding a peaceful solution for the North Korean nuclear problem.

He said Washington and Seoul both maintain a firm stance that North Korea's nuclear weapons cannot be tolerated and should be completely discarded in a peaceful way.

White House spokesperson Sarah Huckabee Sanders said in a statement later Tuesday that: "The president's views on North Korea have not changed."

"North Korea is acting in an unsafe way not only toward Japan, China, and South Korea, but the entire world. North Korea's actions are not good for anyone and certainly not good for North Korea," she said.

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U.S. President Donald Trump's 'views on North Korea have not changed,' White House spokesperson Sarah Huckabee Sanders said in a statement. (Evan Vucci/Associated Press)

In public, Trump has been less sanguine about the possibilities of diplomacy with Kim Jong-un's authoritarian government, which faces growing international isolation and sanctions as it pursues nuclear weapons in defiance of multiple UN Security Council resolutions. In October, Trump appeared to undercut Tillerson when he said he was "wasting his time" trying to negotiate with North Korea, just as Tillerson said the U.S. had back-channel communications with the North.

Trump, who has traded insults with Kim, kept up his tough talk on Tuesday. As he signed a $700-billion US defence authorization bill that includes additional spending on missile defence, he referred to North Korea as a "vile dictatorship."

"We're working very diligently on that — building up forces. We'll see how it all turns out. It's a very bad situation — a situation that should have been handled long ago by other administrations," Trump said.

Discussions with Beijing
Tillerson did not indicate that North Korea had signalled a new readiness to talk, but said that "they clearly understand that if we're going to talk, we've got to have a period of quiet" in weapons tests.

Tillerson stressed the U.S. would not accept a nuclear-armed North Korea, as it flouts international norms and might spread weapons technology to non-state groups in ways that other nuclear powers have not.

In a rare admission of discussion of a highly sensitive topic, Tillerson said Washington has discussed with Beijing how North Korea's nuclear weapons might be secured in case of instability there.

"The most important thing to us would be securing those nuclear weapons that they have already developed and ensuring that nothing falls into the hands of people who we would not want to have it. We've had conversations with the Chinese about how that might be done," Tillerson said.

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Tillerson, left, is shown meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Sept. 30. The Trump administration has held a series of high-level dialogues with Beijing this year. (Lintao Zhang/Pool/Reuters)

It appeared to be the first public recognition from an administration official that the U.S. has discussed North Korean contingencies with China, which fought with the North against the U.S. in the 1950-53 Korean War. The Trump administration has held a series of high-level dialogues with Beijing this year, and U.S. and Chinese generals held rare talks in late November about how the two militaries might communicate in a crisis although U.S. officials said the dialogue wasn't centred on North Korea.

Tillerson said the U.S. has assured China that in the event that American troops had to cross north of the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas, it would retreat back south once stability returned.

"That is our commitment we made to them. Our only objective is to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, and that is all," Tillerson said.

Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said Tillerson's proposal for direct talks with North Korea without preconditions was overdue and a welcome shift in position, but both sides needed to demonstrate restraint.

"For North Korea that means a halt to all nuclear and ballistic missile tests, and for the United States, refraining from military manoeuvres and overflights that appear to be practice runs for an attack on the North," Kimball said. "If such restraint is not forthcoming, we can expect a further escalation of tensions and a growing risk of a catastrophic war."

Last week, the United States flew a B-1B supersonic bomber over South Korea as part of a massive combined aerial exercise involving more than 200 warplanes. North Korea says such drills are preparations for invasion.

While Trump postures on Twitter, Tillerson quietly gets the job done.
 
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