China's strategy in Korean peninsula

[Jura The idiot]

now I read
China hopes ROK will continue to properly handle THAAD issue
2017-11-22 23:23:12

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China hopes the Republic of Korea (ROK) will continue to properly handle the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system issue, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Wednesday.

Wang made the remarks during talks with his ROK counterpart Kang Kyung-wha.

China values the ROK's three-point pledge that it will not add to the existing THAAD system, not participate in the U.S.-led missile defense system, and not develop the ROK-U.S.-Japan military alliance, as well as the ROK's vow of having no intention of harming China's security interests,Wang said.

He called for joint efforts from the two sides to further increase mutual understanding, minimize their differences and create conditions for the full recovery of bilateral ties.

Developing bilateral ties not only accords with the trend of history and the times, but meets the aspiration of both peoples, Wang said, calling for smooth development of bilateral ties on the basis of mutual trust and respect.

Not long ago, leaders of the two countries met and clarified the direction for China-ROK relations, according to Wang.

This year marks the 25th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties. Wang urged the two sides to take the anniversary and the upcoming high-level exchanges as an opportunity, learn from experiences and make strategic plans.

He expressed hope for more exchanges and communication, alignment of the two countries' development strategies under the Belt and Road Initiative, strengthened pragmatic cooperation and increased coordination in regional economic integration.

Bilateral ties have seen leapfrog development with progress in all areas over the past 25 years, according to Kang.

She said the ROK side is pleased that China and the ROK on Oct. 31 jointly issued a press release on overcoming the difficulties which currently affect bilateral relations.

The ROK will further cement high-level contacts and people-to-people exchanges on the basis of the consensus enshrined in the press release and the recent leaders' meetings, and promote early normalization of ROK-China ties for more progress, Kang said.

The two sides also exchanged views on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue.

Wang said China and the ROK share common interests on solving the issue through talks and safeguarding peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, calling on the two sides to enhance strategic communication.

Kang said the ROK shares the view that all parties should make efforts to solve the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue through talks and consultation, while pressure and sanctions are not the solution.

Kang is visiting China from Tuesday to Thursday.

 

[Phead128]

There was already TWO (2) THAAD AN/TPY-2 radars in Japan since 2006 and 2013 respectively.

Adding one (1) more THAAD AN/TPY-2 radar in southern Korean wouldn't make that much of a difference.

The "Three No's" put forth by SK foreign ministry just shows what the THAAD issue was truly about: preventing SK from deepening US-SK alliance in a formal anti-China containment alliance, esp. in US-led ABM defense network and trilateral US-SK-JP alliance.

Those THAAD radars in Japan, and PAVE PAWs radar in Taiwan can already peer deep into mainland Chinese airspace. The issue is about testing the resolve of US-SK alliance and preventing a US-led anti-China formal containment alliance in Northeast Asia.

South Korea has to say the "Three No's" and respect China's security concerns, since China has the ultimate Veto power on Korean unification, as it did since Tang-Silla alliance over 1,500 years ago.

 

[Phead128]

Lasting peace and Denuclearization are the two key words. By now, China's stance is crystal clear and there is no room for any interpretation in favor of any sides. There is nothing else can be more official than Xinhua.

To the pro-Kim camp: there is no way to expect China to back him unconditionally. The blood bound will be gone (if it has not gone already) if Kim insist going nuclear.

To the pro-South camp: don't wish China to sit idle when the 38 line is breached by SK or US. And forget about a SK lead unification.

We should make clear a distinction between (A) North Korea's regime led by Kim dynasty, and (B) North Korea as a geophysical politico-cultural unit.

(A) The Kim dynasty itself is disposable in China's eyes - meaning China won't be allowed to dragged into second Korean War because Sino-DPRK 1961 MDT does not give Kim Jong Un a blank check to wage an offensive war without China's approval. NK cannot rely upon China alliance to save her butt again if NK is the one who unilaterally invades SK or attacks US. If NK does go rogue, then secret plans for a pro-China (or at very least, China-leaning) NK general to take over, or install a pro-Beijing puppet leader like Kim Han-Sol as hereditary figurehead.

(B) The North Korean nation-state as defined as a geophysical politico-cultural unit is irreplaceable strategic asset in China's eyes, and US-SK cannot wish of an Seoul-led pro-US unified Korea because it would violate the most fundamental security interest of China.

So you are correct... China will not tolerate Kim Jong Un launching an offensive war without it's approval, and neither will it tolerate an US-SK invasion of NK using the "WMD threat" as a pretext for invasion.

China pays token lipservice to denuclearization of peninsula to pre-empt SK and Japan nuclearization, but NK nukes does relieve pressure on China's northeastern flank, which allows PLA to re-direct military resources to other theatres of war such as Taiwan and South China Sea. It does serve a geostrategic purpose to have an ally to distract US in Korea. China privately thinks a nuclear NK is a good way to offshore nuclear usage to a third-party state to bypass the 'no first use' doctrine, and deter US invasion of NK. That is why China won't go full 100% on economic sanctions - only enough to placate and distract US until NK mastery of nuke tech is a fait accompli.

 

[Jura The idiot]

earlier today I read a very interesting article
Trump confronts perilous North Korean test

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and here's its part directly related to this thread:

There will now be renewed focus on the administration's fervent appeals to China to solve the crisis for the US by leaning heavily on on its recalcitrant neighbor. The next few days will show whether

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will yield a meaningful shift in China's position on the crisis -- perhaps through a coordinated response gamed out with Trump during his talks this month in Beijing.
Many regional analysts, however, doubt that US pressure on China to do more -- possibly by entirely choking off North Korea's energy supplies -- will work, since Beijing's national interests mitigate any action that could risk the downfall of the regime and the reunification of a pro-American Korean state.
A recent trip to Pyongyang by a Chinese envoy did little to ease the situation, and Kim and Xi have no relationship.
In one intriguing dimension of the diplomatic puzzle,

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-- that will include talks in Beijing with Xi. Any notion that Obama could either carry a message for Xi, or unofficially intercede on Trump's behalf as a respected former president, seems farfetched, however, given the current President's disdain for his predecessor.

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I read
China opposes DPRK missile test, voices 'grave concern' Updated 2017-11-29 22:29 GMT+8

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China has expressed "grave concern" and opposition to the recent ballistic missile launches by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a press conference in Beijing on Wednesday.

"China strongly urges the DPRK to observe the relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council and stop actions that heighten tensions on the Korean Peninsula," Geng said.

"At the same time, we also hope relevant parties will act cautiously to work together for the peace and stability of this region."

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The missile traveled 950 km in 53 minutes before splashing down into the Sea of Japan.

Geng said China's special envoy, Song Tao, who recently visited Pyongyang, discussed the Korean Peninsula issue with DPRK officials. He said he believes Pyongyang is very clear about China's position on the ongoing issue.

He added that China's position – that the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue should be resolved through dialogue and negotiation – has been consistent.

 

[taxiya]

We should make clear a distinction between (A) North Korea's regime led by Kim dynasty, and (B) North Korea as a geophysical politico-cultural unit.

(A) The Kim dynasty itself is disposable in China's eyes - meaning China won't be allowed to dragged into second Korean War because Sino-DPRK 1961 MDT does not give Kim Jong Un a blank check to wage an offensive war without China's approval. NK cannot rely upon China alliance to save her butt again if NK is the one who unilaterally invades SK or attacks US. If NK does go rogue, then secret plans for a pro-China (or at very least, China-leaning) NK general to take over, or install a pro-Beijing puppet leader like Kim Han-Sol as hereditary figurehead.

(B) The North Korean nation-state as defined as a geophysical politico-cultural unit is irreplaceable strategic asset in China's eyes, and US-SK cannot wish of an Seoul-led pro-US unified Korea because it would violate the most fundamental security interest of China.

So you are correct... China will not tolerate Kim Jong Un launching an offensive war without it's approval, and neither will it tolerate an US-SK invasion of NK using the "WMD threat" as a pretext for invasion.

I like the A and B points. Good analysis.

China pays token lipservice to denuclearization of peninsula to pre-empt SK and Japan nuclearization, but NK nukes does relieve pressure on China's northeastern flank, which allows PLA to re-direct military resources to other theatres of war such as Taiwan and South China Sea. It does serve a geostrategic purpose to have an ally to distract US in Korea. China privately thinks a nuclear NK is a good way to offshore nuclear usage to a third-party state to bypass the 'no first use' doctrine, and deter US invasion of NK. That is why China won't go full 100% on economic sanctions - only enough to placate and distract US until NK mastery of nuke tech is a fait accompli.

I am not sure about this. Nuclear is only good for NK to defend itself without relying on external powers, primarily China. If NK falls in line with China, there is no way US is going to threaten NK's existence just like SK is safe under the US protection, in this case there is no need for NK to have nukes, just like SK. Regarding offshoring "first use", what would benefit China if nuke is not a necessity?

I think you might be comparing NK to Pakistan in China's calculation. Please ignore it if this is not what you are thinking. In case of Pakistani nukes, China is happy or even willing to assist Pakistan, because of India's possession which neither US nor USSR/Russia tried to stop (in reality, they want Indian nukes to target China). In China's mind, NK is to be encouraged to have nukes IF SK and Japan are to have it like Pak vs. India. Again in China's mind NK is not on the chess board to counter US, it is not Kim's game. It is all about balance.

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I read
China stresses unswerving goal of denuclearizing Korean Peninsula
Xinhua| 2017-11-30 00:35:18

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Chinese President

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told his U.S. counterpart, Donald Trump, in a telephone conversation late Wednesday that denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, maintaining international nuclear-nonproliferation regime, and preserving peace and stability in Northeast Asia are China's unswerving goal.

He said China would like to keep up communications with the

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and all other related parties, and jointly push the nuclear issue towards the direction of peaceful settlement via dialogues and negotiations.

In response, Trump said the United States has serious concerns over the launch of a ballistic missile by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (

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).

The DPRK's Korean Central Television reported that the country successfully test-fired a newly developed Intercontinental Ballistic Missile early Wednesday morning, a move that has drawn condemnation from the international community.

Pyongyang said "The development and advancement of the strategic weapon of DPRK are to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country from the U.S. imperialists' nuclear blackmail policy and nuclear threat, and to ensure the peaceful life of the people."

It is the first launch since Sept. 15, when the DPRK fired a ballistic missile over northern

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into the Pacific Ocean.

Trump said Washington highly values China's important role in solving the nuclear issue, and is willing to enhance communications and coordinations with China in search for solutions to the issue.

Also in their phone talks, the Chinese leader said that during Trump's visit to China earlier this month the two heads of state have exchanged in-depth views on key issues of common concerns and reached important consensuses on multiple fronts, which bears important significance for maintaining sound and stable bilateral ties.

Xi called on the two sides to carry out these consensuses, make good plans for high-level bilateral exchanges, as well as at other levels, ensure the second round talks under all four high-level China-U.S. dialogue mechanisms a success, and implement cooperation agreements and projects between the two countries.

He also urged the two sides to maintain close communications and coordination on important international and regional affairs.

To help soothe the Korean Peninsula situation, China has proposed a dual-track approach, seeking to advance denuclearization and establish a peace mechanism in parallel. Beijing, in its "suspension for suspension" initiative, calls on Pyongyang to pause its missile and nuclear activities, and calls on Washington to put its joint military drills with

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on hold.

In response to the DPRK's missile launch, the

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Security Council will hold an urgent meeting on Wednesday afternoon.

Since November last year, the Security Council has imposed export bans on coal, iron, lead, textiles and seafood, restricted joint ventures and blacklisted a number of DPRK's entities in response to the country's missile and nuclear tests.

It has also banned the hiring of DPRK's guest workers and capped oil exports.

Under UN resolutions, DPRK is barred from developing missiles and a nuclear weapons capability, but Pyongyang argues that the arsenal is needed for self-defense against the "hostile" United States.

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I read
Chinese FM urges all parties to abide by UN resolutions on DPRK
Xinhua| 2017-12-04 17:19:43

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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi Monday called on all parties concerned to abide by relevant UN resolutions on the Korean Peninsula issue.

Wang made the remarks when meeting the press after talks with visiting Mongolian Foreign Minister Damdin Tsogtbaatar. He was asked to comment on the U.S. decision to consider imposing more sanctions on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (

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) after its recent missile test.

"After two months of relative quiet, tensions on the Korean Peninsula have increased again," Wang said. He added that it was a regret that the parties involved failed to seize on China's appeals.

"China has always been open-minded to new propositions to resolve the issue, however, the stipulations and spirit of UN Security Council resolutions should be a common principle for all parties to follow," Wang said, adding that UN Security Council resolutions represent the common will of the international community.

Wang said China has fully implemented relevant UN resolutions on the issue and opposed the nuclear and missile programs of the DPRK.

He said China firmly opposes actions to increase the tension on the Korean Peninsula and has always been working to promote peace and dialogue in accordance with all previous UN resolutions.

"Propositions and measures that are against or not included in the resolutions lack international legal support and will jeopardize the execution of UN resolutions," Wang said.

The Republic of Korea and the

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launched a large-scale joint aerial drill Monday. The Vigilant Ace drill will run until Friday.

"The situation on the Korean Peninsula is highly sensitive, and we hope that relevant parties can avoid provocation and do more to ease tension," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang said later Monday.

 

[zhonghua]

@Phead128 made an interesting idea.

Hwasong-15 can be construed as the 'first-strike' platform variant of DF-41. Given China's 'no-first-use' doctrine, the DF-41 can only be used as a 'second-strike' retailiation platform. Offshoring long-range strike to NK allows China to bypass the 'no-first use' doctrine by offshoring nuke usage to a third-party state whereby Chinese cities are immune to second-strike response.

It certainly doesn't hurt that both China and NK view US as an enemy.

 

[manqiangrexue]

@Phead128 made an interesting idea.

Hwasong-15 can be construed as the 'first-strike' platform variant of DF-41. Given China's 'no-first-use' doctrine, the DF-41 can only be used as a 'second-strike' retailiation platform. Offshoring long-range strike to NK allows China to bypass the 'no-first use' doctrine by offshoring nuke usage to a third-party state whereby Chinese cities are immune to second-strike response.

It certainly doesn't hurt that both China and NK view US as an enemy.

As thankful as they should be for the PLA defending them in the Korean War, I don't think NK's gonna be down with being nuclear cannon fodder for China LOL.

Besides, China does have a no-first-use policy but when it's life or death, that policy's worth about as much as the paper it's written on. The CCP can change it in one 10-minute closed door meeting if they felt it necessary.