China Flanker Thread II

[Air Force Brat]

Well, to paraphrase Equation, "it's all about the program".

It's not about how effective the Sukhoi airframe is, but coming up with their own design. Even if their first attempt is worse than the Sukhoi, that's ok. Just keep improving and keep coming up with new designs. In that sense, I applaud their efforts on the J-31. It's not successful yet, but at least they are trying. But they need to stop modifying Sukhoi variations.

It's a mindset. They need to come out of the Sukhoi box to be truly independent. To do that, they need to stop copying Sukhoi.

I questioned the J-11D program from the beginning, China has done a very credible job re-placating the amazing Sukhoi, and SAC has been aptly rewarded. Blitzo is to be commended for two very well thought and informative posts, getting the Sino Defense post of the Day award..... so whether or not SAC continues to build Flanker upgrades, or China buys several SU-35s to step into that role is almost irrelevant. If Russia is able to build an acceptable Flanker, which is an airframe that benefits very greatly by having OVT, then SAC is freed up to do other work??

In the US, even though LockMart officially builds the F-35, Boeing and NorthRupp Grumman are building significant assemblies, NorthRupp is building the very precise and strong center fuse with Robotic welding in order to bring up production rate. At this stage of the game, why not allow Chengdu a little help in order to move this project along.

Finally I would remind each of you, that a Flanker, is a Flanker, is a Flanker, no need to re-invent the wheel here gents?? Chinas builds some very high quality Flankers, but none currently offer OVT, which the SU-35 does. Its quite likely that the SU-35 which I have been especially critical of, and see no reason for China to import, is an outstanding option to get more aircraft on patrol in the SCS in a hurry.

More importantly, it is far more critical to ramp up J-20 production as the First F-35s are already in Japan with their F-22 sisters?? so its NOT just about the program, it is about the "platform" that is capable of defending and hopefully defeating the emerging threat?? SU-35 in combination with the J-20 offer the most logical extenstion of that idea at present, they just need 30 times the J-20s they now have, and theres only one way to ramp that number up.

Think about it, SAC has a very fine capability of "replicating" existing equipment,,, no one here would dare tell me CHENGDU is able to meet that need!

 

[Zool]

Also, the J-11D's cancellation has nothing to do with an alleged "acceleration" or "emphasis" on the J-20 program but rather continuous delays within the J-11D project.

Instead of additional J-20s, the PLAAF would be buying up to 90+ additional Su-35SKs to make up for the now-canceled J-11D.

Overall, this is a fairly major setback for SAC.

Do we know for sure that the J-11D program cancellation, if true, is a result of the rumored development issues and delays? And they just decided to quit it?

The J-11D is specific to the air-superiority branch of Chinese Flankers. So the other variants will be unaffected regardless. But it could be that the PLAAF decided they have reached a critical mass in number of Flankers for the Air-Superiority Role, and can make do with a substantive MLU until J-20 comes online full stream (which would be a positive indicator for where the J-20 program currently stands and future investment into it if that were the case).

Or perhaps having had the opportunity to fly Su-35's for awhile now, which are arguably at the edge of extending the Su-30 design before coming up with an entirely new aircraft, they found limited value in significant airframe changes for a new line of aircraft versus a systems upgrade for the J-11B's.

Or maybe Su-35 has really 'knocked their socks off' and they decided to place a large follow up order and cancel J-11D for lack of ability to replicate the Russian airframe enhancements themselves.

I personally doubt the last possibility and would guess, if J-11D is cancelled as a significant airframe upgrade, they will stick with J-11B and an update package and invest heavily into J-20 for their long leg Air-Superiority Fighter. J-10 would continue as medium range/point defense.

Look forward to what additional info we get from the Big Shrimps!

 

[Totoro]

While I do regard j11d cancellation as a good move, it is only good if j16 ends up being the last flanker plaaf gets. 5 or so more years of j16 production would be ok.. A few more years of j15 as well.. But definitely no stepping back and getting more j11b, su35 or replacing even the fighter regiments with additional j16.

 

[Blitzo]

While I do regard j11d cancellation as a good move, it is only good if j16 ends up being the last flanker plaaf gets. 5 or so more years of j16 production would be ok.. A few more years of j15 as well.. But definitely no stepping back and getting more j11b, su35 or replacing even the fighter regiments with additional j16.

Oh I'm not so sure about that. If it makes sense to produce a run or two of J-11Bs or buying another regiment's worth of Su-35s in the immediate future along side J-16s to help boost the number of 4th gen fighters in the short term I think that would be acceptable. If you're talking about buying J-11Bs or Su-35s still five years into the future, then that would be a bit weird. I can't see them still doing that in 2022.

I see the cancellation of J-11D more as a medium to long term move which indicates they will not be committing to a whole new Flanker variant in that timespan, in what likely would've been not insubstantial numbers.

 

[latenlazy]

While I do regard j11d cancellation as a good move, it is only good if j16 ends up being the last flanker plaaf gets. 5 or so more years of j16 production would be ok.. A few more years of j15 as well.. But definitely no stepping back and getting more j11b, su35 or replacing even the fighter regiments with additional j16.

China is going to need a future bomb truck striker that can maybe do a bit of A2A after the J-16 though...Heck, if that VLRAAM is any indication, they might need a striker that can also serve as a missile truck complement for stealth fighters that are more forward deployed.

 

[Blitzo]

China is going to need a future bomb truck striker that can maybe do a bit of A2A after the J-16 though...

But that probably won't be a Flanker airframe... which I think is what totoro is getting at.

 

[latenlazy]

But that probably won't be a Flanker airframe... which I think is what totoro is getting at.

I know. I'm just highlighting what the needs for a replacement would have to be. That said, I can see the J-16 taking up that role for a very very long time.

 

[Franklin]

How is the J-16 inferior in the air to air role compared to other Flankers that China has ? If the J-16's performence in its air to air role is satisfactory then there is no need for a J-11D type plane. Maybe the margin of improvement over the J-16 doesn't justify the continuation of the program. China should focus on a program to update the existing Flanker fleet with AESA radars, new sensors and fire control systems.

 

[Air Force Brat]

How is the J-16 inferior in the air to air role compared to other Flankers that China has ? If the J-16's performence in its air to air role is satisfactory then there is no need for a J-11D type plane. Maybe the margin of improvement over the J-16 doesn't justify the continuation of the program. China should focus on a program to update the existing Flanker fleet with AESA radars, new sensors and fire control systems.

The J-16 is geared to the strike role, much like the F-15E, and while both are capable A2A, neither is optimized for that role. We had intentions of keeping the F-15Cs in that role until 2030, the F-16 really is not viable in that role, nor is the J-10....

China will build and fly Flankers for a long time, just as USAF has built and flown F-15s for a long time, theres nothing else to replace them in the interim, and China has a long way to go to get the J-20 operational and fielded in numbers,,,so the SU-35 makes a lot of sense, and when you NEED capability NOW, it really doesn't matter what country of origin is in the tag on the back of your neck!

 

[Totoro]

Producing j11b alongside j16 would be a waste, as it would mean less j16 produced.. And those q5 need replacement asap... Getting su35 is a little bit less worse than getting j11b, as it'd be cheaper and quicker than setting up additional production capacity at SAC.. But it would still mean taking money away from j20 and j10 procurement and ultimately ending up with a platform that is not common to rest of the fleet.

Setting up j10 production instead of flankers at SAC,once q5 regiments get new planes would still be best, if politics would allow it.. Alas...

Bottom line is, SAc needs to sell a new design of its own..