Chinese Economics Thread

flyzies

Junior Member
China is now rapidly moving up the value chain. China's industries are expanding in the deep rather than in the broad. Instead of making ever larger volumes of iPhones and iPads China is now trying to increase the Chinese content of that iPhone and iPad. And they are doing that with some success as China now is taking away market share from the likes of Japan, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and others. More of the profits are staying in China these days. That's one of the reasons why income and living standards in China are going up.

Absolutely correct. I would add that the reason why more % of components that make up products made in China's factories is because there is a conscious decision to build up a local supply chain. Previously, a lot of the components needed to be imported before shipped to the factory to be installed into that iPhone, but now there's a local version that is just as good but costs less (as it can be bought few miles down the road).

Therefore China is moving up the value chain in 2 ways:

1. Making more high tech products that are designed and manufactured in China.

2. Increasing local components within products made by multi-national corporations, which are then shipped overseas.

Win-win.

PS: This means that although factories can be moved to other areas, the supply chain cannot...which means the cost of moving said factories are even higher when considering the entire supply chain of that factory. E.g. Vietnam has significantly lower labour costs than China, why isn't there a dash to move Chinese factories there? Because the overall cost of making something in Vietnam may still be higher than making it in China...despite the much high labour costs.
 

KIENCHIN

Junior Member
Registered Member
Absolutely correct. I would add that the reason why more % of components that make up products made in China's factories is because there is a conscious decision to build up a local supply chain. Previously, a lot of the components needed to be imported before shipped to the factory to be installed into that iPhone, but now there's a local version that is just as good but costs less (as it can be bought few miles down the road).

Therefore China is moving up the value chain in 2 ways:

1. Making more high tech products that are designed and manufactured in China.

2. Increasing local components within products made by multi-national corporations, which are then shipped overseas.

Win-win.

PS: This means that although factories can be moved to other areas, the supply chain cannot...which means the cost of moving said factories are even higher when considering the entire supply chain of that factory. E.g. Vietnam has significantly lower labour costs than China, why isn't there a dash to move Chinese factories there? Because the overall cost of making something in Vietnam may still be higher than making it in China...despite the much high labour costs.
Agree with your conclusion, the company that I work for has two factory in Chins, started just 20 years ago is now manufacturing more and more of the vital components that used to be imported, example the impeller of a refrigerant centrifugal compressor, no doubt not as high tech as the compressor of a turbo fan engine but until recently off limits to the Chinese because the manufacturing technique and material science involved is a tightly guarded secret.
 
Oh snap. Not that one. This one

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So the answer lies somewhere in between.

Avoid all the negativity. Emission Reduction Strategies are already being researched and developed based on analysis of the January 2013 winter haze event in Beijing.


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Source of major pollutant in China's smog revealed
Updated 2016-12-22 08:56:08 Xinhua
Scientists said Wednesday they have solved the perplexing puzzle of how a major smog component, known as sulfate, forms during haze events in northern China, including Beijing.

The study, published in the U.S. journal Science Advances, identified reactive nitrogen chemistry and water particles in the air as the two missing pieces, suggesting that reducing nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission in particular may help curb China's air pollution.

The findings were based on an analysis of the January 2013 winter haze event in Beijing, one of the worst atmospheric pollution events ever recorded in China, which saw the daily concentration of fine particle called PM2.5 exceed the World Health Organization guideline value by 16 times.

At that time, researchers performed aerosol measurements on the roof of a Tsinghua University building in Beijing and analyzed data throughout the surrounding regions.

They identified a reaction pathway that could account for the missing source of sulfate, discovering that fine water particles in the air acted as an reactor, trapping sulfur dioxide (SO2) molecules and interacting with nitrogen dioxide (NO2) to form sulfate.

The reaction rate was further facilitated by stagnant weather in the 2013 haze event, which trapped NO2 near the Earth's surface, resulting in NO2 concentrations that were three fold higher than clean conditions.

This process, according to the researchers, was "self-amplifying," as increasing aerosol mass concentrations led to higher aerosol water content -- accelerating the accumulation of sulfate and causing more severe haze pollution.

"This study unfolds the unique sulfate formation mechanism in NCP (North China Plain) haze events, which differs from traditional scenarios," study author Guangjie Zheng of Tsinghua University said in an email to Xinhua.

"In cleaner environments such as the U.S. or Europe, sulfate is mainly formed through the traditional OH (hydroxide) reaction pathways in atmospheric gas phase, or the H2O2 (hydrogen peroxide) and O3 (Ozon) reaction pathways in cloud chemistry. In NCP haze events, however, the dominant sulfate formation pathway shifts into the NO2 reaction pathway in aerosol water."

Zheng said results in this research reveal "the complex nature" of haze pollution events in China.

"The SO2 comes mainly from power plants, NOx is from power plants and mobile vehicles, while the NH3 (ammonia) and mineral dusts, which serve as the neutralizing substances, are from both natural and anthropogenic emissions such as industry and fugitive dusts," she said.

"These pollutants from various sources were emitted in high intensity at the same time, resulting in the unique heavy haze conditions, and thus the shifting in the dominant sulfate formation pathway. The complexity of haze pollutions in NCP further illustrated the importance of scientific emission-reduction strategies."

For example, reductions of NO2 and nitric oxide, which can react in the air to become NO2, are expected to lower sulfate pollution levels much more than anticipated by traditional air quality models.

These results "will need to be considered in future air quality and pollutant emission control strategies in northern China, and perhaps also in other regions," the reseachers concluded in their paper.
 

advill

Junior Member
China has charted its ways carefully with foresight in terms of Economic growth and development. This includes developing infrastructure projects, trade, etc. in Southeast Asia, Africa and elsewhere. However, one highly unfavourable image to avoid is "Ugliness", like in the 1950s and even 1960s/early 70s, when several rich and arrogant American corporations and businessmen bull-dosed their ways in several countries, and were called "Ugly Americans". China is on the right course, but corrections are at times necessary to avoid collisions. Quoting the sage Chuang Tsu "Everyone knows the use of usefulness; nobody understands the usefulness of the useless." Owlish Chinese Diplomats play important roles besides the strong military.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
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By
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on November 23, 2016 at 1:30 pm

china-nuclear-pebbles-head-640x353.jpg

It’s a common refrain among climate change down-players — those who accept its reality, but who argue that we can’t or shouldn’t do much about it — that, sure, first world Western countries could be doing a lot more to reduce their emissions, but it hardly matters when you’ve got countries like India and China pumping more and more pollution into the very same biosphere. The argument has been getting weaker in recent years, as even developing nations have started to sign on to meaningful climate action plans. Now, Chinese atomic energy experts have announced an ambitious plan to begin turning the country’s coal plant infrastructure into working nuclear power stations. The first working demonstration unit could begin real commercial operations as early as 2018.

The plan could turn the growing Asian nation into one of the world’s most aggressive actors on climate change — though just as important to China is nuclear’s ability to help deal with its growing problem with
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. It could also kickstart the global nuclear industry, which was
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even before the Fukushima disaster of five years ago. China may be about to prove that newly advanced nuclear tech offers a way for some large industrialized nations to dramatically reduce their carbon footprint without bankrupting themselves, or simply betting that solar and wind power will progress fast enough to matter at all on the global utility scale.

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Germany’s THTR-300 high temperature gas-cooled reactor.

The news comes from this year’s
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, where Professor Zhang Zuoyi
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on the subject, receiving a “sustained round of clapping,” complete with “a few hoots” from the gathered scientists. The reason for their enthusiasm should be obvious. Here, we could have a potential solution to the biggest practical problem with a large-scale pivot toward “Generation IV” nuclear designs with advance, passive safety systems: cost. Under the proposed plan, China can use re-use a huge proportion of the money it spent building coal plants, removing the furnaces and boilers from its super-critical coal plants and replacing them with the stripped-down hearts of high-temperature gas cooled nuclear reactors (HTGRs).

The coal stations targeted under this plan are numerous, but specific. Only super-critical steam plants are built to withstand the high operating temperatures HTGRs require. The early target stations should also be as close to population centers as possible — again, one of the main goals here is to reduce the health effects of coal plant air pollution, and you can’t accomplish that by reducing emissions in the middle of nowhere. So, if this plan is to actually go forward, it will need make a strong case for its own intrinsic safety.

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A graphite-shelled nuclear pebble.

As a result, the project will focus on a form of nuclear plant called a pebble-bed reactor, in which the nuclear fuel is divided into little micro-fuel pellets that are then built up to baseball-sized spheres with successive layers of graphite and ceramic materials. The coatings on each fuel pellet act as the neutron moderator, doing the same job as the water that lies between the fuel rods in a classical thermal reactor, and the melting points of these coatings are all higher than any temperature the fuel pellets can create in this reactor.

Hundreds of these spheres become a rubble pile with space in between for gas to flow, in this in this case helium, and absorb heat before carrying it away. In some cases, this heated gas directly turns a turbine, but in this plan it will heat a duo of boilers to create steam, and turn the turbine more traditionally. The lack of the notoriously complex cooling systems of water reactors is one of the things that makes the Chinese retrofit plan so potentially affordable. And the gas that cools the system doesn’t absorb neutron radiation nearly as easily as water, and thus HTGRs create a far lower volume of radioactive products that could leak or expose workers to hazard. The coolant is a gas at all temperatures, never condensing or evaporating, and as mentioned it cannot create a pressurized explosion like steam.

Thus, pebble bed reactors are in principle
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, providing no path for the sorts of cascading failures that have led to the most serious nuclear accidents in history. This means that in the case of a catastrophic failure, the plan is literally just to walk away. There’s no need to do anything — the whole point of the pebble-bed design is that every single component can fail, and the worst outcome will be a loss of power generation. It will take a long time for the reactor to naturally cool down — but then again, Fukushima cleanup efforts
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at a lightning pace, either.

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The relative cost of forms of power per kilowatt (black), and installed capacity for each (blue). Source:
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There are downsides, of course. The fuel pebbles are expensive to produce, in fact quite a bit more expensive than the team anticipated, and the parts are just as dear — right now, the cost is around $5,000 per kilowatt of installed capacity, or about
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as solar photovoltaic cells, and over five times as expensive as natural gas. However, China has a unique advantage in that it simply has so many suitable reactors to change in this way. Much of the projected cost savings will come from mass production of parts and especially fuel pellets, and the team hopes that as they can bring the price down to around $2,500 per kilowatt, comparable with other forms of green power. If that mass production industry ever gets to a point where it’s running out of Chinese coal plants to feed, it could just try to sustain its model by turning its marketing outward, to other nations.

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But remember, these new reactors are supposed to serve three separate purposes for China, all at the same time: power the continuing process of bringing the entire population into the modern world; let China live up to its international climate obligations; and clean up the air. Right now, cost aside, nuclear is the one and only technology that can provide all three benefits at once.

It’s perhaps worrying that China has such a zippy timeline for these installations, since even a minor accident could tank the profile of HTGRs, worldwide. The technology has only been given a handful of chances in the US and Germany, and while the Chinese government is certainly capable of bulling forward on an unpopular plan, Western democracies are more subject to the whims of the public. China has a chance here to prove to the world that nuclear can be safe, practical, and forward-thinking — and it also has the chance to prove the opposite.
 
I'll respond to:
Yesterday at 10:46 PM
Welcome to the WWW and Wikipedia.

look, I don't pretend anything (for example earlier I posted about my imagination of today's China to be similar to Eastern Block in the end of 1980s; after that, several members told me my imagination was wrong ... and that's fine), I'm either silent OR I say what's on my mind (for example I've been critical about several US Military programs, and then it was some US members who defended those programs ... and that's also fine, of course) and if I'm in the mood, I look at alternative explanations of stuff (for example after I had noticed about Chinese youth soccer
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/chinese-economics-thread.t3715/page-642#post-429654
I read with interest what a member said https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/chinese-economics-thread.t3715/page-642#post-429665 and the point from the first sentence of his post indeed should've appeared in the original article), so I asked about the smog, too, in an attempt to find out what might've been incorrectly presented in the main stream article (https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/chinese-economics-thread.t3715/page-642#post-429685) ... the way how you
t2contra
responded, ehm, wasn't helpful ... which was your point, I guess :) cheers
 
Reality check for Chinese fans of the Trump presidency.

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DEC 21, 2016 @ 04:16 PM
Trump's Appointment Of Peter Navarro To Trade Post Sends Belligerent Signal To China

Charles Tiefer, CONTRIBUTOR
I cover government contracting, the Pentagon and Congress.

Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.

President-elect Trump just picked Peter Navarro to head a new National Trade Council. Navarro means both metaphorically, and literally, there are coming wars with China that we do not need: One of Navarro’s books is titled “The Coming China Wars: Where They Will Be Fought, How They Can Be Won.”

What kind of wars with China does Navarro mean? Earlier last year, he published another book on fighting with China, called “Crouching Tiger: What China’s Militarism Means for the World.” A review of this by Freebeacon was entitled “Thinking About the Unithinkable in the Far East.” In other words, Navarro is not at all just a “trade hawk” about China. He is a “hawk” about China across the board, in all the theatres of struggle, including the military. Navarro is, about China, in a word, a war hawk.

Does he envision the possibility of actual military combat between the United States and China? Take this Navarro comment earlier this year in a book review. “From what I can see, and my Chinese wife can see, China will probably soon implode . . . . The Chinese Communist Party will probably try to get the population to focus outside the country, probably through conflicts in the South China Sea or Taiwan”

And, “For more than two decades, I have been telling people that the first thing China would do before trying to take Taiwan would be to take the Spratly Islands. If the world simply ignored that, then Taiwan would be next.” Is there anyone else than the United States who would mobilize its military to protect Taiwan? Now Trump’s phone conversation with the President of Taiwan, in breach of the 40 year old “One China” policy, fits into a larger policy picture: viewing war with China as entirely possible.

To be sure, Navarro is himself an economics professor. And, his portfolio is labeled as just trade. But he can still serve as a way that China hawks in the Department of Defense and elsewhere can exchange views with Trump.

What does it mean to put Peter Navarro in charge of a White House council. It elevates Navarro’s policy views on China to a high level. It also creates a base for China policy that is not, like the Pentagon, CIA, or State, subject to Senate confirmation or regular Congressional oversight.

Navarro has a major advantage over the Special Trade Representative: his office is not envisaged as a bridge between the White House and Congress. He is Trump’s man, not the Congressional Republican party – a party which has more balanced views on the inadvisability of wars with China.

I am no dove about China. I published a critique of normalizing trade relations with China, back when there were not many academic critics, that was as long and specific about China’s negatives as a short book. But there is no trade-related reason to have a war hawk attitude.

But, China will interpret the Trump administration moves as an overall challenge, including a military one. And that, in turn, will justify the Trump Administration in its extravagant campaign promises about monster increases in the United States navy. The Department of Defense in general, and the Navy in particular, already have a large wing devoted to being ready for an anticipated potential war with China. That is what powers the vision of the budget-breaking 350 ship Navy that Trump promised.

In sum, Navarro means the title of his book: The Coming China Wars.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Reality check for Chinese fans of the Trump presidency.

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Exactly so. The reason is populist crusaders like Trump, who's a true believer, must deliver their signature campaign promises to their base, or risk losing their support. Beyond Trump, the China hawks in his administration will likely pursue their own pet agendas, and not all of them are anti-intenventionists (like Trump). How it plays out bears close watching.
 
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