ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
Sep 9, 2016
Jura said:
only now I noticed gazeta.ru article
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dated 06.09.2016, 15:59
"It Would Be Better To Disband The Syrian Army And To Draw Up A New One"
which is very critical towards
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and for example says the Syrian Army is concerned with collecting fees at checkpoints, and not with fighting (the article says Iranian, Iraqi volunteers,
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and Syrian vigilantes do the fighting) ... it also mentions Mr. Assad is broke ... some parts are critical to the point I decided not to translate (so that I'm not quoted :) ... it concludes with
  • pointing out it's impossible to win the war together with such an ally as the Syrian Army is, and
  • suggesting Russia should pull out from Syria until the end of 2016, and stay only in its military bases there
(I repeat this according to the article I quoted, not according to me)
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another (22.09.2016, 17:44):
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"Russians Bomb, And Syrians Then Don't Fight"
says for example how members of Intelligence Departments collect fees etc., stuff I'm not going to translate ... notices Syrian leaders still deny a full-scale civil war is going on (an interesting point which I missed: Martial Law hasn't been introduced in Syria yet)
 
D

delft

Brigadier
From an article by Christina Lin, who earlier worked several years in the Pentagon:
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Similarly, US is also behaving as Al Qaeda’s air force in Syria. In late August, Turkey and its rebel jihadists
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Syria with US air support in Operation Euphrates Shield aimed at Syrian Kurds and
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.
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US special forces are also embedded with the rebel groups in Al Rai in northern Syria where Ahrar al Sham, considered “Al Qaeda-lite,” is present.

In a textbook case of reaping what one sows, on September 16, various reports revealed that US special forces were
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of Al-Rai by US/Turkey-backed jihadists that threatened to behead and slaughter them.
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As Patrick Poole in Pajama Media reported, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) shouted “Christians and Americans have no place among us”, and others shouted in Turkish, “Death to America! We will behead you!” US troops in Tal Abyad also came under fire from the Turkish military.

When asked why they were kicked out, Turkey’s President
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said US behavior caused its own eviction, and the FSA
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said Erdogan wanted to teach Americans a lesson.

Meanwhile on September 20,
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s emir Sheikh Tammim bin Hamad al-Thani blasted Americans at the UN General Assembly for not doing more to topple the Syrian government so they can install a Salafist regime, essentially treating American men and women in uniforms as a mercenary force similar to their al Qaeda-linked proxies in Syria.
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Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
Yesterday at 3:53 PM
Jura said:
... Sep 22, 2016 now (title
Airstrike with incendiary bomblets on western Aleppo
:
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in a pro-Government Twitter account I noticed this afternoon:
"The Syrian Army says that airstrikes & artillery shelling on east Aleppo will continue for a period of time in preparation for ground attack"
which is something what seems to be consistent with what I read in Russian Internet in the morning
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and what seems to be consistent with Al-Jazeera
20 minutes ago
Scores killed as Syrian jets pound rebel-held Aleppo
Residents speak of onslaught as Syrian army jets launch more than 150 air strikes, killing at least 90 people. ...
EDIT video inside so you may consider if to click:
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Last edited:
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
adding to the post right above what I found in totally pro-Government Twitter account:
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Fire erupted due to an aerial strike by the
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that targeted
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district in Aleppo
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CtATXqtXgAEp0A0.jpg


this all makes sense, right?
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
and related to the two preceding posts is:
Syria_Battle_for_Aleppo_September_23_a.png

I've read in the blog by "Cassad"
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and elsewhere the Government has launched
  1. the main attack from roughly the Airport area toward roughly the Citadel, to split Eastern Aleppo; and
  2. supporting attack against roughly Handarat area
(I kept repeating "roughly" because I didn't look at any details ... if it turns out to be important development, I may update this post)
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
I noticed coupla days ago, at first decided not to post ... now let's face it:
ISIL was able to counter-attack against Turkey/Rebels to the point of getting some ground back (the top-right corner):
Syria_Battle_for_Azaz_AlBab_September_21_small.png


the last map from Turkish politruks:
Cs03jkpWYAEQ8yz.jpg
blah blah about how many times Firtinas fired, humanitarian aid ... typical spin when things don't go as planned, to amuse the gullible public with numbers, pictures
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
Dec 16, 2015
Jura said:
...
I look at the following numbers, for now
  1. five thousand Russian troops in Syria (says
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    I believe I could find the link in one of my recent posts within last perhaps five pages here);
  2. 70% of Syria territory under ISIL control (says
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    I believe I could find the link in one of my recent posts within last perhaps five pages here);
  3. two Russians KIA in Syria;
  4. US$ for more than seventy Rubles (tragicomic gazeta.ru article from today, pulling the quotes of Russian Officials:
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    );
  5. oil for about thirty-five US$ per barrel (it's slightly more, and it depends on Brent/WTI etc., but that's not the point)
and I'll check them after one year since the beginning of Russian intervention (September 30, right?), so that in the beginning of October, 2016 I will be able to say I was wrong when
Dec 15, 2015
Jura said:
...
So I'm sorry to disagree with you, Jeff, but I also think the intervention in Syria becomes Russian "quagmire".
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
I'll address this one week earlier because
  • I'm not interested in what Obama will be saying after one year since the intervention, what Hillary will be saying, what Donald will be saying ...
  • my conclusion isn't going to change during the coming week
  • right now I have time to write this :)
First the above points from one year ago:

#1 I don't know the current number of Russian troops in Syria, but I guess it's similar to five thousand one year ago (for example as of now they directly control Castello Road, according to "Cassad"
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etc. etc.);

#2 the area under ISIL control got smaller (soon professional maps will become available summarizing it, I guess), but still "about 60–70%" of Syria isn't controlled by Government (said gazeta.ru this week:
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), so I'm guessing ISIL lost about one third of territory during the last year;

#3 I see 23 KIAs in
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(I suppose you're aware of (2015)
Vladimir Putin declares all Russian military deaths state secrets
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)

#4
1 US Dollar equals
64.08 Russian Ruble
says google at the top of 'dollar+ruble+exchange+rate' search at this moment

#5
I see about forty-five US$ per barrel of Brent now, but ... the new point:


russia1.png

Sep. 15, 2016 article
One of Russia's biggest economic problems is summed up in this chart
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officially
International reserves
were growing:
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I'm not going to go into any apples-to-oranges, the whole point is to put the links here, and make the Russian reserves #6

I'll check #1 - #6 after one year, now I conclude the Syrian intervention has become Russian quagmire.
 
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