ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

solarz

Brigadier
Clearly incompetent staff work.

It's strange, did it really require every single aircraft available to destroy that ISIS convoy? Why couldn't they have left one or two planes to continue air cover? Even a single plane could make a big difference.

I think it also shows that the US military command really don't consider these Syrian rebels to be high priority, despite the fact that they are media darlings. This says volumes about their actual effectiveness.
 
Yesterday at 11:13 AM
...

Cm1HZGHXgAEfy-z.jpg


there's also a pro-Goverment map available, reportedly showing the area actually taken most recently ... I'll try to redraw it now (I'm on a bus which drives me through Southern Poland :)
now, back in Prague, I won't be watching over Castello Road for hours :) and it's unclear how close/far the troops get, but both sides claim to have the area under fire control, so I'll wait
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
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Registered Member
The Article from Al Masdar News is that the SAA are staying North of the Castello Rd and for now and are happy to keep it under fire control.
The spokesman said that if they advanced to the road, that they would be flanked from sides.

I take that to mean that where they are they are out of range of rebel fire and have clear line of sight against enemy movements with a wide kill zone. If they advance further they would be range of rebels in fortified buildings and vulnerable.

There is also talk of a massive rebel counter offensive brewing with a quoted figure of up to 40,000 rebel fighters involved. No idea how realistic that figure is, but it does make sense to hold secure ground to try and fight it off.
It would seem likely that after this event the SAA would try and move to link up with SDF and SAA positions to the South of the Road.
 
Sunday at 2:04 PM
Jun 21, 2016


this weekend I saw reports (repeat: saw reports) ISIL might be able to lift the siege of Manbij ... which of course is hard to believe ...
... and I think it's time to say ISIL attempts
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-389#post-403961
failed, and ISIL recently lost several areas within
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(the situation in the map below is pretty much confirmed by Kurdish Twitter accounts I now visited):
Cm3Kop0WEAAN5Zd.jpg

it seems soon the time will come for a more detailed map of Manbij ...
 

delft

Brigadier
delft your judgement poses an interesting question: what is the chain of command for that type of operations? for example who and where (quote is from inside of https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-390#post-404183)

I know I don't Need To Know :)
Exactly. The staff must consider what the effects will be on some operation if resources are removed, in this case on a very small and military insignificant operation with a large propaganda intent, and inform the responsible commander accordingly. Who has then the authority to do what? We'll probably know in five or ten years time what happened in the several command centres.
 

delft

Brigadier
From RT:
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2 Russian pilots killed as ISIS shoots down chopper near Palmyra – MoD
Published time: 9 Jul, 2016 16:59Edited time: 9 Jul, 2016 20:38

Islamic State militants have downed a military helicopter near Palmyra, Syria, killing two Russian pilots on board. The helicopter had been attacking the advancing terrorists at Damascus’ request when it was taken down, according to the Russian defense ministry.
On July 8, Russian military pilot-instructors Evgeny Dolgin and Ryafagat Khabibulin, were conducting a calibration flight on a Syrian Mi-25 (export version of the Mi-24) helicopter loaded with ammunition in the province of Homs,” the official statement from the Ministry of Defense reads.

The crew received a request from the Syrian command group to help defeat the advancing terrorists and fire for effect. The captain of the aircraft, Ryafagat Khabibullin, made the decision to attack.”

The Ministry of Defense stated that due to the skillful actions of the crew the terrorists were thrown back and the attack had been thwarted.

However, their helicopter was shot down by terrorists as it was turning to head back to the base.

Having spent their ammunition, while turning back to the base, the helicopter was shot down by terrorists from the ground and crashed in an area controlled by the Syrian government. The crew did not survive,” Russia’s defense ministry said, adding that both pilots will posthumously receive state awards for their actions.

Russia’s Interfax news agency reported, citing a source in the Russian military, that the helicopter had been downed with the aid of an American TOW antitank missile system.

According to reports, terrorists used the American TOW system to down the helicopter, which, having exhausted its ammunition, was on the course back to the base at an extremely low altitude,” the source is quoted as saying.

Friday’s tragedy puts the number of Russian military casualties in Syria at 10.

In June, serviceman Anton Erygin suffered fatal wounds after falling under militant fire while guarding a Russian center for reconciliation convoy in Homs province.

Earlier in April, Russia paid its respects to Lt. Aleksandr Prokhorenko, who called in artillery fire on his own position after being surrounded by the terrorists near the Syrian city of Palmyra.
 
From RT:
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yesterday I noticed the day before yesterday Red Russian blogger had noticed
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the original Russian statement (also from the day before yesterday)
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(something like Russian Military Refuted Info About A Downed Helicopter)
which he was highly suspicious about
(interestingly, that Red Russian blogger
considers to be "almost always credible" ISIL announcements of the losses inflicted on its enemies;
understandably :) ISIL doesn't inform of its own losses much, but I think I saw some graphics with suicidal attackers, the number was over five hundred in a certain area during some period I don't recall ... it's truly scary: suicidal attackers are used in an operational role, not even Special Forces are always able to handle them)

EDIT
"Cassad" has the ISIL video of the downing inside his blog
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Last edited:
Yesterday at 9:15 AM
... it's unclear how close/far the troops get, but both sides claim to have the area under fire control, so I'll wait
I'll stick to this view:
Thursday at 2:56 PM
... the Government cut the supply route I previously posted about (https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-389#post-403729), in its segment I marked in green dots, and I approximated "the wedge toward Aleppo" by red lines in the map below (for scale: it's about ten kilometers from east to west):
6y4b.jpg
...
... as I noticed the Government had been under a heavy counter-strike toward "South Mallah Farms" yesterday in the evening


and now various sources in Twitter say the Government foiled this counterattack (shown schematically in blue below):
OfG4.jpg
a major success for the Government yesterday! as a moment ago I saw, in a totally pro-Government source, pictures of the defenders (I would've considered them to be Kanonenfutter):
0hKME.jpg
 
Wednesday at 7:31 PM
... the Government carved out "Maydaa" (in the red ellipse below) from the Eastern Ghouta Pocket (which automatically shows at
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) most recently:
btLlk.jpg
for scale, I now measured the walking distance between "Maydaa" and
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and the result was twelve km
and only now I'll show you something professional LOL
2ldUbCH.jpg

(should be "clickable"; it's
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)​
 
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