South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

Tri Nitro Toluene

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2016_3$largeimg04_Friday_2016_141151394.JPG

A USS Boxer LHD travels at an offshore location in Goa in this October 29, 2006 file photo.
Reuters

Three days after a top Admiral from the US invited India to join a four-nation grouping to patrol areas like the South China Sea, New Delhi has outrightly rejected the idea saying it has so far not considered it.

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, on being asked about the statement by US Pacific Command Admiral Harry Harris, said: “Our viewpoint will come, if at all we consider it. As of now, India has never taken part in any joint patrol; the question of joint patrol does not arise.”

“If we take any decision, the Ministry of Defence will brief you very clearly,” Parrikar said.

Parrikar’s opinion is line with New Delhi existing policy of keeping away from any such grouping that may anger China which is locked in a territorial dispute with six other nations.

On March 2, Admiral Harris invited India to join in a four-nation grouping to jointly patrol seas and air space over contested waters.

Admiral Harris, speaking at a function in New Delhi said: “India, Japan, Australia, the United States and so many other like-minded nations can aspire to patrol together anywhere international law allows. The idea of safeguarding freedom of access to international waters and airspace is not something new for us to ponder.”

He had cited the words of the US Ambassador to India Richard Verma to buttress his views: “I echo Ambassador Verma’s vision that, in the not too distant future, American and Indian Navy vessels steaming together will become a common and welcome sight throughout Indo-Asia-Pacific waters, as we work together to maintain freedom of the seas for all nations”.

Considering the $5.3 trillion dollars in trade that traverses each year from the Indian Ocean and through the South China Sea, we all have a vested interest in ensuring our region remain secure, stable, and prosperous.
 
Yesterday at 7:27 AM
it's very recent:
The U.S. just sent a carrier strike group to confront China

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Yesterday at 3:28 PM
related:
US-aircraft-carrier-patrols-contested-South-China-Sea-1024x680.jpg
US aircraft carrier patrols contested South China Sea, shadowed by Chinese warships

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and more of this:
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The American supercarrier USS John C. Stennis, two destroyers, two cruisers, and the USS Blue Ridge, a floating command center and theflagship of the 7th Fleet, have all entered the South China Sea within the last 100 hours. The massive show of force comes as tensions
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continue to rise.

It is
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, likely resulting in a chain of invisible threat rings that overlap their way across nearly the entire disputed body of water. So far traditional diplomacy has not stopped this eventuality, and the best the U.S. has done is to sail within the supposed territorial waters of these islands as
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.

In recent months, the American military has sent several other ships on Freedom of Navigation missions, including multiple destroyers, cruisers, littoral combat ships, and amphibious assault ships, but never on such a massive scale.

There are
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but the Obama administration has stayed with the freedom of navigation option, and the most intimidating way to do it is by sailing a carrier strike group into the region. And that is exactly what is happening now.

The presence of the Stennis carrier strike group, along with an extra cruiser and the USS Blue Ridge, sends a huge message to China about the nature of the South China Sea, and American intention to challenge any Chinese sovereignty claims with massive military displays. That is, until the islands become fully armed, at which point the military and diplomatic equation becomes much more complex and volatile.

Everything seems to be going as planned so far, according to
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, although Captain Greg Huffman of the Stennis did make a somewhat ominous point of saying that the carrier group is spotting a larger number of Chinese ships than it normally encounters.

The U.S. has called for a new coalition aimed at keeping a more steady presence in the South China Sea, including Australia, India, and Japan. Getting India, with its blossoming maritime might, involved as a partner in such an operation would be a huge coup for the United States.

This same trio of regional power players, along with the U.S.
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later this year. This action will likely anger China, but it shows that China will not be able to claim one of the world’s largest shipping lanes, which is also rich in energy reserves and fishing stocks, as its own without a challenge.
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TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
If the Blue Ridge is in the SCS it means that the USN is taking is making this a priority. She may not be the most impressive ship in the fleet but Blue Ridge is a theatre command ship its basically The PAC-Com Mobile Office. Its the personal HQ for the pacific commander, the only more important craft that could be in the pacific theatre is Air Force One.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
If the Blue Ridge is in the SCS it means that the USN is taking is making this a priority. She may not be the most impressive ship in the fleet but Blue Ridge is a theatre command ship its basically The PAC-Com Mobile Office. Its the personal HQ for the pacific commander, the only more important craft that could be in the pacific theatre is Air Force One.
An alternative view is the peerless display of power projection plays into China's hand because it gives China fig leaf cover for militarizing its selective holdings in the Spratlys and actually strengthens China's long-term position in the SCS. I say that because of the following-
1) Does this or any show of US military power impedes China's short-term strengthening of the Spratlys and long-term domination of the SCS? Answer is no.
2) Does current massive military display settle China's so-called SCS "aggression" issue? Answer is no.
3) Will China back down in face of such power displays? Answer is no.
4) Does current power display comfort Philippines, Vietnam, and Japan? Answer is maybe for a few weeks, and then the handwringing.
5) Does current power display comfort the rest of ASEAN? Answer is maybe for a few days, and then the handwringing.
6) Does current power display comfort the rest of the world? Answer is probably not even for a few hours.
7) Whose position is stronger after the party is over and the band goes home? Answer is China.

It's clear US (Sparta) and China (Athens) are working things out, and there will be much shouting and maybe even some shoving along the way (Stennis and Blue Ridge= shouting). Hopefully the two bullyboys will avoid fisticuffs that could lead to a donnybrook, because not only would the "winner" look no prettier than the "loser," the SCS problem would remain unresolved.
 
interesting:
Former CNO Roughead: Chinese Expansion in South China Sea Concerns Japan, U.S.
When looking to the future of U.S. and Japanese security “the importance of the periphery to China cannot be overstated,”
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.

Speaking Friday at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C., think tank, retired Adm. Gary Roughead, said Beijing views events in the South China Sea, for example, through a lens of historic slights when other nations exercised power and control and a region with major economic consequences for the mainland in terms of food, energy and trade.

As China has grown more powerful economically and militarily, he said when it looks at the South China Sea in a security dimension leaders in Beijing wants “to keep at a distance those capabilities that threaten them.”

Roughead’s points on how China views the South China Sea were voiced by a senior Chinese naval officer at an international conference in London last fall. As reported in Defense News, Vice Adm. Yuan Yubai said, “The South China Sea, as the name indicates, is a sea area that belongs to China. And the sea from the Han dynasty a long time ago where the Chinese people have been working and producing from the sea.” It is an assertiveness that Beijing began publicly expressing in 2010, CSIS seminar participants noted.

While Yuan said that safety of navigation was necessary in these waters, Roughead said Friday, “Our interpretations [of freedom and safety of navigation] are different,” as China continues to reclaim coral reefs and build ports, airfields and install surface-to-air missiles on these artificial islands.

In short, Beijing is trying to make those waters “an internal sea,” a point made several times during the discussion at the seminar on U.S.-Japan security.

Michael Green, senior vice president for Asia and Japan chair at the center, added the fact the Chinese are reclaiming these reefs is “very intimidating to neighbors such as Vietnam and the Philippines.”

An international tribunal is expected soon to rule in a territorial dispute case in favor of the Philippines against China. “We know Beijing is not going to accept” that decision if it favors Manila.

Green said the United States should continue sailing through the South China Sea to demonstrate freedom of navigation and not recognize any nation’s claim to this territory and that other nations such as Japan, Australia and India should do likewise.

In addition to having American naval vessels transit the disputed territory, B-52 bombers overflew the region last fall as a rejection of China’s announcement that aircraft needed to notify it before entering that air space.

Vice Adm. Umio Otsuka, president of Japan’s Maritime Self Defense Force Command and Staff College, said, by taking these steps, China “feels some pressure from us” even as it expands it maritime force and operations from off its shores to the Indian Ocean. He added, “We have many ways and tools” to make this known in Beijing, starting with better sharing and integration of situational awareness between Japan and the United States.

True integration of situational awareness and having “capability and capacity are going to be hugely important” in the evolving relations between the United States, its allies and partners and China, Roughead said.

“We’re beginning to see changes [in] how we deal with China” and also more interest from nations such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and others in this new American direction, Roughead said.

This increased interest from other nations is “why I believe capacity building” is “a good option,” Otsuka said. Japan has recognized its “manning problem” with an aging population and has compensated for that in the last 10 years by having the self defense force become joint and that has produced some savings.

Tokyo also recognizes its “geographic and geostrategic advantage” in the region and the quality of its defense forces and work force in contributing to the alliance.
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The public is only going to see what the involved governments want them to see regarding sub activity, which is very little, but obviously the SCS is on its way to be even more of a hotbed.

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World|Mon Mar 7, 2016 6:01am EST
Japanese submarine to visit Philippines: sources
TOKYO

A Japanese submarine will visit the Philippines for the first time in 15 years, along with two warships that will then sail on to Vietnam, in a show of support for nations opposed to Beijing's ambitions in the South China Sea, a person familiar with the matter said.

The Japanese submarine, which is used for training, and the destroyers will arrive in the Philippines in April. The escort vessels will later sail to Vietnam's strategic Cam Ranh Bay base on the South China Sea, the source said.

"It sends a message. It is important for Japan to show its presence," the person with knowledge of the plan said on Monday. He asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to talk to the media.

A Japanese Ministry of Defence spokesman declined to comment on any submarine visit but said the navy normally conducted training voyages in March and April.

"But we are still in the planning stage so are unable to provide details," he said.

The visits were first reported by Japanese media, including the Sankei newspaper, on Sunday.

Asked about the visits, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said Japan occupied the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea during World War Two so China was on "high alert" for Japan's military moves there.

"The cooperation of relevant countries should benefit regional stability and should not be directed at third parties or harm another country's sovereignty or security interests," he told a daily news briefing in Beijing.

Of the countries bordering the South China Sea, the Philippines and Vietnam are most opposed to China expanding its influence in the region by building bases on reclaimed islands.

The Philippine military had not received any official notification of a visit by a Japanese submarine, a military spokesman said, though a visit to the Subic Bay naval base was expected.

"Informally, we know a Japanese submarine is visiting Subic in April," said the Philippine spokesman, Brigadier-General Restituto Padilla.

JAPANESE MINISTER TO VISIT

Rich in natural resources, the South China Sea is also a major thoroughfare for global trade worth up to $5 billion a year, much of it coming to and from Japanese ports.

The United States, which has asked China to halt reclamation work that could destabilize the region, has irritated China by conducting naval patrols close to the man-made outcrops in what are known as freedom-of-navigation operations.

Rather than confronting China in such a direct way, Japan instead wants to build the capacity of nations in the region to improve their surveillance of Chinese forces. Japan's Minister of Defence Gen Nakatani is due to travel to the Philippines in April to discuss cooperation.

Japan has already offered to supply the Philippines with aircraft that will help bolster patrols over the disputed sea. Japan wants to give the Philippines a handful of Beechcraft TC-90 King Air training planes that could be fitted with basic surface and air surveillance radar.

The Philippines has also asked the United States to hold joint naval patrols.

Japan and Vietnam agreed in November to hold their first joint naval exercise.

The United States has no South China Sea claim and says it takes no sides, though it has been highly critical of China's assertiveness and says it will protect freedom of navigation.

(Reporting by Nobuhiro Kubo; Additional reporting by Jessica Macy Yu in BEIJING; Writing by Tim Kelly; Editing by Paul Tait, Robert Birsel)
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
It's clear US (Sparta) and China (Athens) are working things out
quite the Ironic comparison.
Athens at its height was a democratic republic and regional super power who reigned via Naval supremacy.

Sparta was a highly authority driven state rooted in a militarism doctrine that viewed all as equal under the state, rather akin to communist doctrine. Sparta was known for its land army above all else, although it did have a Navy it was a weak force. Sparta was also a power that aimed to to displace Athenian power.
In many ways I would have chosen to reverse your analog and use the US as Athens and PRC as Sparta. But that's just an aside.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
interesting:
Former CNO Roughead: Chinese Expansion in South China Sea Concerns Japan, U.S.

Tokyo also recognizes its “geographic and geostrategic advantage” in the region and the quality of its defense forces and work force in contributing to the alliance.
The last sentence in the article is weak sauce. Japan has no geographic advantage in the SCS whatsoever, and while it's trying to gain some SCS geostrategic space by working with US, Vietnam, and Philippines, none of its efforts will make any difference in China imposing its own Monroe Doctrine in the South China Sea.

Let's face hard facts, what can US, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, EU, UN, or anyone else really do to stop China's relentless march to make SCS its own version of the Greater Caribbean? The answer is nothing, nada, zippo, zilch. The reasons are:
  • US wouldn't risk WWIII for Philippines or Vietnam
  • Japan doesn't have the balls to fight China in the SCS
  • Vietnam is a worthy foe, but wouldn't risk another 1979, even if it could inflict more damage than it absorbs
  • Philippines want to force the issue, but can't be sure it could entangle US in the fight
  • EU has no interest in fighting China over SCS
  • UN is powerless, because China has a veto in the Security Council
The economic bottom line is unless US is willing to tank its own and the entire world's economy to temporarily put a stop to China's SCS ambitions, there are no economic weapons US could employ to do the job. The military bottom line is unless US is willing to risk WWIII by attacking China with overwhelming might to temporarily put a stop to China's SCS ambitions, there are no military options to do the job. Kicking the can down the road isn't a good option, because time is on China's side and the Gordon Chang scenario isn't likely to happen.

So, who could stop China from dominating the SCS? Only the Chinese themselves. But, why would they do that, since it's in their national interests to lord over the SCS the same way US lords over the Caribbean?
 
obviously SCS related:
Pentagon budget plan aims to upgrade its global power projection
The Pentagon will use its substantial budget next year to modernize weapons systems, support allies abroad and cope with emerging challenges across the globe, Defense Department officials said Monday.

The emphasis is on deterrence.

Robert Scher, assistant secretary of defense for strategy, plans and capabilities, said the agency’s “five evolving challenges” are counterterrorism and four troublesome countries: Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.

The Defense Department has proposed a budget of $583 billion for fiscal 2017, nearly 2 percent more than the $573 billion budgeted for defense in 2016. It includes more money for programs such as the European Reassurance Initiative, which aims to demonstrate U.S. support for European allies in the face of potential Russian aggression in the region, such as its takeover of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.

“When Secretary (Ash) Carter got here, it was very clear that he assessed there was a new security environment,” Scher said during a panel discussion with military budget officials at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “The strategic imperative is to deter, and if not deter, win the nation’s wars.”

The U.S. can upgrade its projection of global power through several programs, said Jamie Morin, director of cost assessment and program evaluation at the Defense Department.

The .department has proposed investing more than $40 billion in undersea capabilities, a domain where U.S. forces are already the dominant power, Morin said.

Some of that investment will go toward technical improvements to the Navy’s Virginia-class attack submarines, tripling missile-firing ability, as well as moving toward adapting technologies like the Tomahawk missile for a variety of scenarios, including anti-ship, uses, he said.

For Benjamin Friedman, a defense analyst at the Cato Institute, there hasn’t really been a marked change in strategy by the Pentagon. The U.S. has always been interested in projecting power abroad, and the budget proposal arguably seeks to preserve that capability, Friedman said in a phone interview.

The spending blueprint reflects the thinking behind the Pentagon’s “third offset strategy,” which seeks to provide the U.S. with a war-fighting advantage when facing a foe whose conventional warfare abilities match our own, Morin said.

However, Friedman said calling the Pentagon’s plan an offset strategy is a misnomer. The first offset plan was created during the Cold War as a measure to combat the Soviet Union’s superior manpower with a large nuclear arsenal, he said, whereas the Pentagon in 2016 is mainly improving existing technologies.

Friedman, who believes the U.S. should pursue a more restrained foreign policy, said that in most discussions, offset has just come to mean a response to an enemy’s capability.

“To me, it’s the Chinese that have an offset strategy to combat our naval and air force ability with area denial,” he said.

China has begun to exert its claims over the South China Sea, which includes island chains like the Spratlys and Paracels, which are claimed by several other nations, including U.S. allies like Japan. It has also begun building its own islands atop coral reefs and constructing military facilities there.The U.S. has mounted several freedom of navigation patrols near those islands, essentially showing China that the U.S. does not recognize its claims to a 12-nautical-mile territorial limit around them.

Faced with adversaries such as China that have the ability to deny U.S. access to certain regions, the Pentagon must develop new ways to project power, Morin said.

“Adversaries and potential adversaries need to understand … the capabilities the U.S. can bring to bear if we need to defend allies and American interests,” he said. “That’s at the heart of global deterrence.”
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