ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

dtulsa

Junior Member
It is going to be a lot worse.

Hitler's Youth's were just ordinary kids press ganged into military service.

You had the odd true believer, but most were just ordinary kids. But even the die hard true believers had a normal upbringing by parents who loved them and taught them good values and reinforced their humanity to counteract the poison Hitler tried to brainwash them with.

These ISIS babies would have been born into a world where hatred, cruelty and barbarity was the norm, torn from their mothers as babies and handed to die-hard ISIS true-believer wives to raise. They will be brainwashed and conditioned from birth to be the "perfect" terror weapon.

They will be the most horrifying and insidious living weapons I can imagine, against which the civilized world will have no defence or counter.

To effectively combat such a threat, we will have to discard much of our own hard-won humanity and values, and those who do it will be forever scarred by the experience.

How many of us can kill a tiny child even if we knew it would cost us our own life not to? How many of us could live with what we had done afterwards even if we did take the shot? How many true, innocent children will die at the hands of good soldiers who thought they were suicide bombers?

If ISIS is allowed to develop and unleash this weapon, it will already be too late.

Hard choices and sacrifices have to be made now, by all governments, or we will be faced with impossible choices only a few short years down the line.
Are you suggesting total war I don't know if that's possible in the politically correct world in which we live in although I tend to agree but I think it will take another 911 type of event for that to happen

We have to very care about that scenario I for one would rather focus to the facts on the ground and their coincidence to history
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
Are you suggesting total war I don't know if that's possible in the politically correct world in which we live in although I tend to agree but I think it will take another 911 type of event for that to happen

Not total war, but a real, comprehensive ground campaign to hunt down and kill or capture every ISIS fighter that could be found, to rescue all the enslaved men and women and children being held by ISIS and liberate all territories held or terrorised by them.

Ideally you will also want to hold the ground and build a stable society there to stop ISIS returning as soon as you leave, but at this point, a purge campaign designed only to hunt down and root out ISIS will do. For now.

They cannot be allowed a safe heaven where they can rest, organise, plan, train and generally do as they please, they must be hunted and hounded wherever they go and not allowed any breathing room. Because as soon as we let up the pressure, they will be planning the next big attack or atrocity.

Do not be fooled into thinking anything has changed just because it has been non-westerners who have borne the burnt of ISIS attacks in recent years. If anything, international terrorism has only grown stronger in recent years. Especially so after Libya and Syria. Sooner or later, they will turn their attention to the west, Russia and even China.

The world may need another 9/11 attack to be galvanised into making the commitment to do what must be done, but it really shouldn't. It would be a supreme tragedy if we all saw it coming but no one had the will and balls to do what is necessary to avert such an attack, and instead could only summon the strength to do what must be done in the aftermath of it.

And the worst thing is, if it is proven that the downing of the Russian airliner was a terrorist attack, and that it was an inside job, it would suggest that ISIS has a long term game plan.

I think we are all at times guilty of underestimating them, of thinking them as little better than rabid dogs who will attack on sight every opportunity they can get.

If the airline was brought down by a bomb, it would suggest that ISIS had developed the capability to bring down airliners, and that they likely done so some time ago and was holding that back. Probably because it knows full well that the world will not do what is necessary to destroy ISIS without another 9/11 scale attack to give it the will to do so.

That means that we are only safe now because it serves ISIS' interests to hold off the next big attack, but the longer we wait, the worse that attack, when it finally comes, will be.
 

dtulsa

Junior Member
Unfortunately you are right although I and probably everyone else in this forum wishes you weren't ABC news is now reporting that a bomb did bring the plane down although Egypt is denying it
 
trying to go back once more to
Oct 24, 2015
will add just one more direction of the offensive: the attempt to take over what's left from
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Neither here the Regular Army has succeeded yet: ...
and while this situation seems to hold (also in other Damascus suburbs), I've realized I definitely should have added one more direction: against "Tall Sayyad salient"; the map from last week:
Latmin-II.png

the view when I tried to "zoom in" there:
Kv9Oo.jpg
The territory under Government control probably ends north to Morek, and includes "56" road visible in the bottom-left corner, and
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north to it. About two weeks ago I read the Regular Army in the beginning of its October Offensive had tried to cut out this Salient by attacking from the directions of Morek and Kernaz at the same time, but was repelled after counter-attacks were mounted against the flanks of said attacks.

I wonder what's the situation there now, considering what's the most recent map is showing in that area:
Northwestern_Syria_November_4.png


This map also seems to be answering
...
here I wonder if it has, or hasn't, been opened since then (or maybe cut elsewhere?)
...
about the road by a desert south of
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and the answer would be the Regular Army succeeded in securing this important road (if one believed that map, of course)

So, I'll try to occasionally follow five direction:
  1. Aleppo (including access routes: "M5" and through Khanasir);
  2. Talbiseh pocket;
  3. Salma;
  4. suburbs of Damascus;
  5. Tall Sayyad salient (above)
I said "occasionally", because I've gotten the book, let me see, "ISIS: Inside The Army Of Terror" by Weiss and Hassan and I consider to read it in coming days.

Now to Moderators:
  • while trying to create this post, I noticed several recent and pathetic posts here apparently referring to Hitlerjugend (they popped up with There are more posts to display. View them? message) ... I'm not going to go back to see them, just please have a look if they're ... necessary
  • I've also noticed the Kremlin called recent US and British bomb-in-A321-flight statements to be speculations, and while I'm certainly not a speaking trumpet of the Kremlin :) I think it would be better to have a separate Thread, for various types of A321 announcements (now numerous media cry this one hour, something else next hour, to change it for a different story soon etc.)
  • I'll understand if you ignore my previous two points LOL
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
List of field commanders killed since October 1:

Ahmad Saleh Al-Bayour – Liwaa Suqour Al-Jabal (Free Syrian Army)

Abu Al-Zubayr Al-shami – Jabhat Al-Nusra

Abu Dujana al-Ansari – Jabhat Al-Nusra

Abu Al-Nasr Al-Jazraqi (Saudi) – Jabhat Al-Nusra

Abu Uwais Al-Daghestani (Dagestani) – Caucasus Emirate of Syria

Abu Al-Awaiti – Liwaa Seif Al-Islam

Abu Suleiman Al-Masri (Egyptian) – Jabhat Al-Nusra

Khatib Abu ‘Abdel-Rahmad – Thuwar Al-Sham

Abu Suleiman Al-Homsi – Kataeb Al-‘Uzz

Shawkat Asatif – Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham

Isma’eel Nassif – Harakat Noureddine Al-Zinki

Bassel Zimmo – Free Syrian Army’s 1st Coastal Brigade

Mohammad Abu ‘Arib – Harakat Noureddine Al-Zinki

Abu Nour Al-Touranji – Jaysh Al-Mujahiddeen

Abu Bakr Al-Shishani (Chechen) – Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham

Mohammad Marwan Basiti – Liwaa Al-Shuhada (ISIS)

Abu Leith Al-Homs – Jabhat Al-Nusra

Hassan Al-Hamoudi – ISIS

Hamdou Saleem – Sham Legion

Ayman Yousif Al-Hawrani – Jabhat Al-Nusra

Mohammad Jamal Musarqah – Shuhada Al-Khalidiyah

Isma’eel Hanoura – Liwaa Ahrar Souriya

Wasseem Abu ‘Umar – Ajnad Al-Sham

Yousif ‘Assi – Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham

Mohammad Saffouri – Liwaa Al-Haramayn

Abu Khalifa Al-Basrawi – Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham

Khaled Usa – Free Syrian Army’s 1st Coastal Brigade

Ahmad ‘Abdel-Karim Al-Maraati – Jabhat Al-Nusra

‘Ammar Khodor – Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham

Rawad Al-Aksa – Tayr Ma’lat Operations Room

‘Alaa Maati – Sham Legion

Ibrahim Rehawi – Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham

Mustafa Bakrish – Free Syrian Army’s 1st Regiment

Abu Usama Al-Jazrawi (Saudi) – ISIS

Abu Muwas – Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham

Abu Rashid Al-Turkmaani – Free Syrian Army’s 1st Coastal Brigade

Mohsen ‘Umar Al-Turki – ISIS

Mustafa Bakrish – Free Syrian Army’s 1st Regiment

Jameel Al-Saleh – Free Syrian Army’s “Tajma’ Al-‘Azzat”

“Abu ‘Umar Tow” – Free Syrian Army’s Suqour Al-Ghab Brigade

Ahmad ‘Alwaan – ISIS

Ahmad Al-Shuhada – ISIS

Mohammad Al-Khatib – Kataeb Thuwar Al-Sham

Sa’ad Ahmad ‘Akaab

Mohammad Sirhaan – Jabhat Al-Nusra

Nouri Al-‘Abid Abu Nour – Jaysh Al-Mujahiddeen

Kamal Zarouq (Tunisian) – ISIS

Abu Waleed – Free Syrian Army’s 1st Coastal Brigade

Hassaan Loula – Kataeb Ibn Taymiyya

Abu Mohammad Al-Harbi (Saudi) – Jabhat Al-Nusra

Marwan Al-Faraj Na’eb – Free Syrian Army’s Division 60

Abu ‘Ali Ghazeel – Jabhat Al-Nusra

Bashar Al-Za’abi – Jaysh Al-Yarmouk

Safwan Al-Masri – ISIS

‘Abdullah Turkistaani (Turkistan) – Jabhat Al-Nusra

That is a lost of a lot of field officers and commanders and I'm sure they are having a difficult replacing them with the same competency and skills.
 
very interesting (dated Nov 04, 2015):
A-10 Gunship Attacks Critical to Taking Town from ISIS: Pentagon
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attack aircraft operating out of Incirlik airbase in Turkey provided "devastating" close air support for U.S.-backed Syrian-Arab fighters in taking a town in northwestern Syria from the Islamic State, a U.S. military spokesman said Wednesday.

The A-10s were joined by an
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gunship in clearing the way for the U.S.-aligned group now known as the Syrian Arab Coalition to take the town of al-Hawl and 250 square kilometers of surrounding area in fighting Monday and Tuesday, said Army Col. Steve Warren, a spokesman for Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve.

"We were able to bring both the A-10s and the Spectre gunship to bear in a devastating manner" to aid in the assault on al-Hawl, Warren said.

Warren's comments were believed to be the first by the U.S. military in describing a specific attack in the campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, by the A-10s, commonly known as "Warthogs" to the U.S. infantry. A-10s flying out of unidentified bases in the Mideast have also been used against ISIS in Iraq.

The slow-flying A-10, featuring a 30 mm GAU-8/A seven-barrel Gatling-type cannon, began flying in 1976 but is still considered by many the best close air support weapon in the
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inventory. For years, the service has tried to retire the A-10s but Congress has continued to provide funding and did so again in this year's National Defense Authorization Act.

In a video briefing from Baghdad, Warren said the A-10s and the AC-130 allowed about 1,000 Syrian Arab fighters to take al-Hawl from an ISIS force believed to number several hundred.

Backed by 17 U.S. airstrikes and using American-supplied ammunition, the advancing Syrian Arab fighters killed at least 79 ISIS defenders, Warren said.

"The Syrian Arab Coalition showed us valor," he said. "They showed us something here, and we're pleased with that."

The A-10s used in the attack on al-Hawl were among about a dozen Thunderbolts recently deployed to Incirlik. The A-10s were to be joined in the coming weeks by about a dozen F-15 fighters, according to the Pentagon.

The approval by Turkey for the use of Incirlik against ISIS in Syria has aided the U.S. in supporting a variety of groups fighting ISIS in northern Syria, Warren said.

"Our flight legs are shorter, our loiter time is longer" out of Incirlik, giving the U.S. "more air power in the battlespace," he said. The use of other bases in the Mideast for strikes in Syria required "two mid-air refuelings on the way up, two on the way back," he said.

The al-Hawl operation also showed promise for the new U.S. effort to re-supply anti-ISIS fighters in Syria while working through vetted leaders of about a dozen groups under the umbrella of the Syrian Arab Coalition, Warren said.

"It's not a complete validation, I want to be clear," of the program to back the Syrian Arab Coalition, he said, "but we're encouraged."

The new effort began after the U.S. abandoned the $500 million program to train and equip a new anti-ISIS Syrian force of about 5,000 fighters in Turkey and send them back into Syria. More than $43 million was spent on that effort before it was dropped, according to the Pentagon.

On Oct. 12, the U.S. airdropped about 50 tons of ammunition to the Syrian Arab Coalition, Warren said. He echoed previous U.S. statements that none of the ammunition went to the Kurdish-Syrian YPG (Popular Democratic Forces).

The YPG, considered the most effective anti-ISIS force fighting in Syria, is opposed by Turkey. YPG leaders have charged in recent weeks the Turkish troops have fired on their positions from across the border.

The apparent success in the taking al-Hawl contrasted with the long-stalled effort by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), backed by U.S. airstrikes, to retake the Anbar province city of Ramadi, from which they fled in May.

Warren said the Ramadi campaign was stalled again as the ISF sought to cut off an ISIS re-supply route across the Route 1 bridge over the Euphrates River. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) was also using barges and other watercraft on the Euphrates to bring weapons and fresh fighters into Ramadi, Warren said.

"That river is full of traffic," Warren said, and the U.S. was having difficulty distinguishing between civilian and ISIS boats for airstrikes. "We're not going to strike every single vessel we see, we have to be confident that we know what we're striking," he said.

Even if the bridge and water traffic were cut off, "then it's on to the really hard part which is urban fighting" to retake Ramadi, Warren said. "That is going to be a difficult, hot, dangerous, scary fight. It will take a while."
source:
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janjak desalin

Junior Member
[...]One common theme, in all this worth adding, is that this strategy makes more sense from a political perspective rather than a military one. I mean by this, that this looks like moves to end this conflict via political means, rather than through bitter military struggle to the end, at least as far as the rebels are concerned.
Absolutely!

War is simply an alternative means of diplomacy. I've anticipated, from the outset of the Russian campaign, that Putin might have learned from, and attempt to emulate, the greatest execution of military diplomacy in the 20th century, that being, the Cuban intervention in southwestern Africa. This 'military' action resulted in both the negotiated independence of Namibia from South Africa, and the negotiated end of the apartheid south african regime (deliberately non-capitalized), two accomplishments (in one) highly deserving of honorable mention.

Your demographics based analysis regarding the political ramifications of the Aleppo objective is spot on, cutting to the core of the matter, illustrating precisely why the Aleppo campaign will be completed. Considering this, I've anticipated that, once regime coalition forces have surrounded FSA forces in Idlib Governorate, they might make the strategic decision to ignore highway M5 and utilize the alternate logistic supply-lines to complete the Aleppo campaign. Additionally, consistent with your prediction of a political settlement, I anticipate that in the course of the Aleppo campaign, as regime coalition forces gain the advantage, the regime may offer FSA coalition forces (Syrian nationals) safe passage from Aleppo Governorate to Idlib Governorate with the understanding that the FSA coalition will be allowed to maintain Idlib Governorate, and Idlib Governorate only, as a base in which to consolidate, and from which to negotiate.

However, the Idlib/Aleppo scenario plays out, the Raqqa/Deir Ez Zor campaign is an inevitability. ISIL must be destroyed.

and, btw, you anticipated the taking of Kuweires in a couple of days? rather, give them 'til after the weekend, after they've had a chance to utilize the Tartus to Hama to Salamiyah to Ithriyah to Khannasser to Safirah highway (the reasoning for my Hama to Aleppo highway offensive should, now, be obvious) to supply sufficient ordinance, and other goodies, to get the job done right.


 
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janjak desalin

Junior Member
ground troops supported by hind helicopter gunships from afb tiyas.
russian troops protected by russian ad missile complexes (buk?) brought to syria for the purpose.

hey, nicky! great posts! may I make one suggestion? it would be helpful (contextually) to either zoom your maps out, or to provide a second map that would situate your subject location in relation to other action and at least one major reference point, e. g., a city or town in the governorate.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Not total war, but a real, comprehensive ground campaign to hunt down and kill or capture every ISIS fighter that could be found, to rescue all the enslaved men and women and children being held by ISIS and liberate all territories held or terrorised by them.

Ideally you will also want to hold the ground and build a stable society there to stop ISIS returning as soon as you leave, but at this point, a purge campaign designed only to hunt down and root out ISIS will do. For now.

Do not be fooled into thinking anything has changed just because it has been non-westerners who have borne the burnt of ISIS attacks in recent years. If anything, international terrorism has only grown stronger in recent years. Especially so after Libya and Syria. Sooner or later, they will turn their attention to the west, Russia and even China.

The world may need another 9/11 attack to be galvanised into making the commitment to do what must be done, but it really shouldn't. It would be a supreme tragedy if we all saw it coming but no one had the will and balls to do what is necessary to avert such an attack, and instead could only summon the strength to do what must be done in the aftermath of it.

And the worst thing is, if it is proven that the downing of the Russian airliner was a terrorist attack, and that it was an inside job, it would suggest that ISIS has a long term game plan.

I think we are all at times guilty of underestimating them, of thinking them as little better than rabid dogs who will attack on sight every opportunity they can get.

If the airline was brought down by a bomb, it would suggest that ISIS had developed the capability to bring down airliners, and that they likely done so some time ago and was holding that back. Probably because it knows full well that the world will not do what is necessary to destroy ISIS without another 9/11 scale attack to give it the will to do so..
Wolf, I agree with this.

I believe that in the end, before all is said and done, it will end up having to be something like what was done to defeat the Nazis and the Imperial Japanese.

You have a culture amongst the truly radical Islamic Jihadists/Terrorists that is very near to the same mind set.

While it is true that the average German was not a "true," believer, just the same, there were plenty who were, and the allure and the appeal to national pride that built up around Hitler and the dedicated Nazis pulled them in.

The Imperial Japanese mindset with the Samurai/Bushido mindset was more wide spread, and very cultural for the population who believed and were raised to believe that their emperor was God.

They had to be defeated without condition. Their entire societies were dismantled after the war...under constant occupation...and remade into more civilized governmental forms. This took decades...even after their total and complete defeat.

I fear that the culture/populations that are supporting the likes of ISIS will ultimately have to go through the same, and fear that the will to do this is severely lacking.

I also know that will is simply a very hard thing to engender (as it should be), and that it is apt to take much worse atrocities (As you spoke of) than we have seen to date to lead to it.

Heck...even 911 only truly united folks in the US for a few months...when Pearl Harbor united the US until the war was over and won...and even then for decades thereafter to make the commitment necessary to keep it from happening again in Germany and Japan.

I shudder to think what it might take to drive the western republics to that type of commitment today.

But, I agree with you...in the end, the civilized world is going to have to set aside their differences (as they did in World War II) to absolutely and utterly defeat the likes of ISIS...and the cultures that spawn them. In that sense...such atrociies and such dangers ought to unite us, and ought to allow us to come together for all of our common good.

To date...sadly, that has not happened. As I have said many times, the US should be working with Russia to take down ISIS. If it leaves Assad in place...fine. he is nothing like ISIS, and the people of Syria were not ever suffering under him (irrespective of what failings he may have) than they have and are under ISIS.
 
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