2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos

[Equation]

Sounds like Putin blinked first. Even a matter of weeks ago he was pounding on the table, saying he would send in the troops if this and if that. Now he's trying to back-peddle away from the idea of intervening. If he sends the troops back again he would just seem like an indecisive idiot.

Presumably he's looking for some face-saving deal where there's a degree of devolution, so he can say he "won" concessions for eastern Ukraine. But at the moment Kiev seems to be resisting the idea of federalism, and with the election this close I don't think they're going to try to ram through something as big as that.

Or maybe he accomplished what he already wanted. Russia regaining land control of the Crimean peninsula and turmoil in the Ukraine that can split that country apart politically.

 

[Miragedriver]

Or maybe he accomplished what he already wanted. Russia regaining land control of the Crimean peninsula and turmoil in the Ukraine that can split that country apart politically.

That seems to be what he is intending. We must always remember that dictators are not like you, or me. They are liars. They do not believe in the rule of law inside their own country or internationally. They hate the honest expression of opinion. They never trust the leaders of other countries. All they care about is their power, which they see in black and white: they can only win if others are losing.

 

[Mr T]

Or maybe he accomplished what he already wanted. Russia regaining land control of the Crimean peninsula

How does that benefit Russia? It hasn't gained any new bases (it had them before), and now it has to bank-roll Crimea. That's a very expensive way to waive the flag.

turmoil in the Ukraine that can split that country apart politically.

1. Russia benefits from having unstable neighbours?
2. I'm not sure Ukraine will split. At the moment there's a deadlock, with the rebels unable to break out.

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I think Putin has to make his mind up. Does he want people to take him seriously?

 

[Equation]

How does that benefit Russia? It hasn't gained any new bases (it had them before), and now it has to bank-roll Crimea. That's a very expensive way to waive the flag.

Better control and more access to the Black Sea and gas pipelines going through the Crimea.

1. Russia benefits from having unstable neighbours?
2. I'm not sure Ukraine will split. At the moment there's a deadlock, with the rebels unable to break out.

I think Putin has to make his mind up. Does he want people to take him seriously?

Putin is playing the long term game with the Ukraine. As long as they are in continuous turmoil whether economically or politically the people will no longer wants to be a part of that government and instead wants to side with a more stable and stronger Russia. Remember for each day Ukraine is in a crisis their economy takes a hit, and that's not good.

 

[SampanViking]

Or maybe he accomplished what he already wanted. Russia regaining land control of the Crimean peninsula and turmoil in the Ukraine that can split that country apart politically.

Its not an unfair conclusion.
The Crimea has been taken out of play and with Regional Autonomy becoming a fact on the ground in many parts of the South and East, even a "ceasefire" is good for Russia.

Otherwise the only remaining concern for Russia is Ukrainian neutrality and a federal structure will kill the prospect of NATO membership for good.

I did say at the start of this crisis never to forget that Putin is an Intelligence spook not a militarist. Intelligence has certainly been as obvious to the forefront of Russian strategy as it has been painfully lacking from the West's mechanisations.

 

[MwRYum]

How does that benefit Russia? It hasn't gained any new bases (it had them before), and now it has to bank-roll Crimea. That's a very expensive way to waive the flag.



1. Russia benefits from having unstable neighbours?
2. I'm not sure Ukraine will split. At the moment there's a deadlock, with the rebels unable to break out.

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I think Putin has to make his mind up. Does he want people to take him seriously?

If you bothered to read a few posts back, see that 2 maps and its analysis, you should have a bigger picture of why Putin got what he came for and that'd benefit Russia in the years to come...that is, unless in a few years time humanity discovered alternate energy that can finally throw fossil fuel and internal combustion engine into the history. That said, command the source of fossil fuel will continue to be the centrepiece of power games in Realpolitik.

And there's the upcoming election in Ukraine, if Putin play it hard, the more hardline the candidate will be more likely get the vote, then less room to work for all sides; it's just like Taiwan's elections, now Beijing learned to shut up during the season, so both sides left to slug out with old ammo instead of something new.

Putin ain't that useless drunk Yeltsin was, he ain't that stupid and not in a hurry to push for Russian's version of "manifested destiny" if they got one. Federalisation of Ukraine could be a reality if a more moderate candidate gets elected and might be easier to sell to the masses if the masses sees Russia can be reasoned with and only muscled in when they push Russia against the wall. In the end, Federalisation will leave Ukraine effectively chopped into two, the more prosperous Eastern (and pro-Russia) and the still broken Western. EU will definitely don't want an arse-broke new member to burden them anymore as it is, and the US won't be able to cough up real support for the "Western-bit" for the years to come. Thus Ukraine will eventually wise up, and so will Kiev in turn.

That's the long-term game plan Russia is pushing for, as such it'd be the best for Putin to pull back a little, and he did.

 

[delft]

That seems to be what he is intending. We must always remember that dictators are not like you, or me. They are liars. They do not believe in the rule of law inside their own country or internationally. They hate the honest expression of opinion. They never trust the leaders of other countries. All they care about is their power, which they see in black and white: they can only win if others are losing.

Correction: Putin is an elected president, not a dictator. The main difference with many US presidents is that he was better prepared for the job. He had been prime minister and governor of Sankt Peterburg after his carrier in KGB.

 

[Broccoli]

Putler is backing down because people in Eastern Ukraine don't want to live under Russia's heel. They tried to get locals to support pro-Russians, but only managed to get few hundred people to take part in pro-Russian demonstrations so their propaganda has failed.


- Eastern Ukrainians don't want to take arms and shoot Ukrainian soldiers, so Putler is left only with handful of hired thugs and cossacks from Russia.

- Locals don't like pro-Russians because they are looting and hijacking money delivery trucks.

- Russia doesn't like the elections because they know that Kiev will win.


Pro-Russians trying to rob a bank in middle of day. Let the Russia Lie Today spin this....
[video=youtube;I2lVaDXuOCA]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2lVaDXuOCA[/video]

 

[delft]

If you bothered to read a few posts back, see that 2 maps and its analysis, you should have a bigger picture of why Putin got what he came for and that'd benefit Russia in the years to come...that is, unless in a few years time humanity discovered alternate energy that can finally throw fossil fuel and internal combustion engine into the history. That said, command the source of fossil fuel will continue to be the centrepiece of power games in Realpolitik.

And there's the upcoming election in Ukraine, if Putin play it hard, the more hardline the candidate will be more likely get the vote, then less room to work for all sides; it's just like Taiwan's elections, now Beijing learned to shut up during the season, so both sides left to slug out with old ammo instead of something new.

Putin ain't that useless drunk Yeltsin was, he ain't that stupid and not in a hurry to push for Russian's version of "manifested destiny" if they got one. Federalisation of Ukraine could be a reality if a more moderate candidate gets elected and might be easier to sell to the masses if the masses sees Russia can be reasoned with and only muscled in when they push Russia against the wall. In the end, Federalisation will leave Ukraine effectively chopped into two, the more prosperous Eastern (and pro-Russia) and the still broken Western. EU will definitely don't want an arse-broke new member to burden them anymore as it is, and the US won't be able to cough up real support for the "Western-bit" for the years to come. Thus Ukraine will eventually wise up, and so will Kiev in turn.

That's the long-term game plan Russia is pushing for, as such it'd be the best for Putin to pull back a little, and he did.

The EU is greatly troubled by allowing in such countries as Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Spain and Portugal. Even Italy is sometimes seen as a burden. There is zero chance of the EU wanting Ukraine as a member.

 

[SinoSoldier]

The Russians could let this part run on low gear for the short term, as even just owning that part of the Black Sea is enough to put Kiev in further disadvantage, besides what direction Kiev will go will be known soon in the upcoming election at the end of this month.

In terms of hardware and funding, Moscow can always knock Beijing's door even when Western's sources are denied to them.

It's all part of a calculated plan to enforce upon Ukrainians an ultimatum between leaving the EU dream and joining Russia or risk losing the ability to cook food or heat showers. Russia knows that despite all the securities the EU and US might offer, Ukraine's oil lifeline is a far more powerful motivator for the Ukrainian masses than the likes of "democracy" offered by the West, which might explain why the polls are so pro-Russian these days, assuming of course that they aren't rigged in any way.