2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos

[PanAsian]

Pan Asian


Why would Russia want that? They made clear exactly what they want over the weekend and that is a Federal structure in which the regions have a very high degree of autonomy to include external agreements. This really means a Ukraine that exists in little more than name only and one where many regions may indeed have similar referendums regarding joining the Russian federation.

Not wishing to sound immodest, but I did pretty much predict the course of events and the arguments prior to the Kerry Lavrov meeting over the weekend in post 767.

Lavrov has demanded a looser federal system
Kerry has said that this is something for Russia to sort out with the Ukrainians directly (washing his hands of the problem)
The Kiev regime have indeed replied "why should we agree to this, it is a demand for capitulation"

The key part of the quotes sentence you replied too, was about the when and the method used.

Russia would happily gain its objectives through diplomatic arrangement, but still has the option of an R2P intervention if called upon to use it.

Unfortunately, ten years of agitation and counter agitation to try and remove the Russian presence from The Crimea has polarised and now fractured the unity of the Ukraine nation beyond repair. Now, with the Crimea gone, there is absolutely no incentive for any Western nations to try put Humpty Dumpty back together again.

Removing Russia from the Crimea would be a bonus but having even just western Ukraine solidly move towards, never mind joining - which is what is going to happen, NATO's (US+Western Europe's) orbit is a solid win. Ukraine's potential as a base for ABM and other aerospace weapons deployment matter more than MBT-style ground forces or naval presence. And because Russia had all of Ukraine in its orbit before, anything less than that is a loss for Russia, which is what this is.

Ukraine may still be one country in name only but technicalities are important. In allowing this Russia is avoiding setting itself up for a repeat of being told to "tear down this wall", making any Westward re-alignment moves by an "intact" Ukraine as potentially slow and controversially "undemocratic" as possible, and importantly not having Russia officially expand.

I can't pat myself on the back yet since I had predicted the Ukraine situation to turn into a Korean War style conflagration if both sides decide to fight it out but so far everyone seems to be pulling their punches. At this stage the Ukraine will probably share an evolution similar to that of the situation in Vietnam leading up to the Vietnam War.

 

[Jura The idiot]

Surprised that you think there is anything contentious about that.
If you look at pretty much any of maps that have been used in the main stream media for their reporting (examples in link)

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...they all show a clear line of demarcation between the Russian leaning regions and the Nationalist Ones. Included in this is the line of three coastal regions of the South East that form a land corridor running from the Crimea to Odessa and linking to Transdinestria.

It was also NATO itself that has been warning of Russia being able to force a path along this line to achieve the connection. So in short, both the basis of geography and the strategy have been well established in the main stream public domain.

...

SampanViking, I'm just curious about the term you used, "the Odessa Corridor to TransDinestra" (I quote it with the typo in it). We all know about

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so maybe I'm oversensitive ... Did you mean

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be "united" with

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??
Anyway, a google search of
"odessa corridor"
didn't give me anything useful, so I'm asking what it meant in your post, is all.

 

[delft]

I think you mean the Vietnam war that ended in 1975. The situation was somewhat different then There was the agreement of the 1954 Geneva conference that Vietnam was to be divided but that in 1956 a free and fair election was to be held to decide who would be president of a reunited Vietnam. As it was clear to them that such an election would provide a massive victory for the North Vietnamese president Ho Chi Minh both in North and South Vietnam the Eisenhower administration and the South Vietnamese dictator Ngo Dinh Diem refused to help organize the elections.

 

[Engineer]

Lavrov has demanded a looser federal system
Kerry has said that this is something for Russia to sort out with the Ukrainians directly (washing his hands of the problem)
The Kiev regime have indeed replied "why should we agree to this, it is a demand for capitulation"

I see Kerry's words as an attempt to lure the Russians into recognizing Ukraine's current "government", rather than washing the problem off his hands.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Eventually Russia has to recognize the Kiev government, If thee Bear moves to oust it and install a Pro Russian puppet. The West would see it as a possible move against Nato, The Tanks and Troops would form up on the Boarders of Poland and Russia.
Best case is compromise Kerry is trying to get a deal based around establishment of presidential elections. Russia wants the Whole government to do elections and a new constitution for the nation hoping that they can get the pro Russian Majority to move the Ukraine back to it's bosom. Europe wants the Ukraine to open Trade albeit on a limited basis and allow the Ukraine to decide it's own fate.
Kerry will try and deal but someone else is mixing the deck, because although the US still has a control on NATO, but the EU is fragmented with individual players who each want there own way. particularly a number of Nato players in the Region who still have a grudge against Russia, as well as key players in the US who are willing to Aid such. There are also pro Russian Players who want to teach the west a lesson and are willing to take losses to teach it.

 

[Blackstone]

Eventually Russia has to recognize the Kiev government...

Maybe after Russia absorbs eastern Ukraine...?

The West would see it as a possible move against Nato, The Tanks and Troops would form up on the Boarders of Poland and Russia.

NATO and Obama might thump their chests and cry wolf, but in the end, they'll do nothing substantial.

...key players in the US who are willing to Aid such (Ukraine)...

Too bad the key US players you mentioned all work at Fox News and not for the Executive branch.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Too bad the key US players you mentioned all work at Fox News and not for the Executive branch.

Blackstone, I was not Talking about Fox news, Fox gets a bad rap from the left, but they are in my view a good counter balance to MSNBC who is as left as Fox is Right.
Particularly I am getting worried about Sr. Senator John McCain. I hate to Say it As i respect the Man. But He has been making moves that have ingratiated himself with some Serious Questionable Characters. He was there in Kiev egging on the protests, He was with Free Syrian Army when it was starting to become apparent there were Devils Deals going on. And he is not alone, there is a Definitive faction in the DOD and DOS who still push hard against Russian. Remember President Putin made a speech some time back listing a laundry list of issues dating over the last 20 years. I remind you Black Stone that over that period 12 were under Democratic Presidents.
Now Don't get me wrong I am not a Putin Fan by any sense. I do not Like where Russia is going and Fear that by pushing them, We risk uniting potential Threats into Real ones, Particularly since North Korea and Iran two states who have Sold grudges against the US both have boarders and relations that could become opportunities for Russia to lash back at the US.

Maybe after Russia absorbs eastern Ukraine...?

There is still a possibility for Russia To back off especially if a Deal can be hammered out. Dividing The Ukraine has been pointed to by some of our members as a WIN WIN For Russia but it would have a down side as NATO would now be justified and the EU would strike back targeting nations who are also in the Russian Sphere. Georgia, Modova and a few others. It might take time but it would bite back. Russia and the West are best served by cooling off. Putin has the Army standing to make the Charge but they are sitting there. That's not a mistake He's showing his displeasure. She could have charged to Kiev but he's holding back.

NATO and Obama might thump their chests and cry wolf, but in the end, they'll do nothing substantial.

For the Ukraine Your right but Russian Troops parked on Polish boarders is another matter. remember them? Yeah full Nato Member, With a Bad History when it comes to Armies on the March across Europe.

 

[delft]

US sanctions:

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From this article:

"NASA's goals aren't political," said a NASA scientist who spoke to The Verge on condition of anonymity. "This is one of the first major actions I have heard of from the US government and it is to stop science and technology collaboration... You're telling me there is nothing better?"

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

US sanctions:

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From this article:

In this case Delft, its Bull! The US and Russian Space programs only really joint on one program. The ISS that represents 95% of Nasa Russian space. And ISS is exempt from this move. I posted the leaked memo in the world space thread.

http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/mem...s-views-photos-videos-10-6066.html#post276272

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Ukrainian officers join NATO drills in Bulgaria
Apr. 3, 2014 - 09:28AM |
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The Associated Press
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News
World News
NOVO SELO, BULGARIA — Ukraine has dispatched 16 senior officers across the Black Sea to Bulgaria to join a NATO military exercise in a demonstration of cooperation between the alliance and the crisis-torn former Soviet republic.

Organizers said Thursday that the drills, dubbed Saber Guardian, involve over 700 troops from 13 NATO member and partner nations, as well as representatives from NATO.

Although planned in 2013, the exercise is coinciding with an East-West standoff over Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. The exercises are being held just few hundred miles away from the contested Black Sea peninsula.

Maj. Gen. Richard Longo, deputy commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, said “our peaceful, humanitarian-focused exercise will help bring stability to this geopolitically significant part of the world.”