East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

[Engineer]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

Opinion-China's new ADIZ is intended to establish a new status quo and begin to shoehorn Japan and the USN away from, what Beijing considers, an area of privileged interests. The last two years of very close and very tense encounters in those waters and air space tells that tale.

The change of status quo has nothing with China setting up an ADIZ. If it was that easy, China would have set up an ADIZ a long time ago. The basic reality is that China's new ADIZ merely reflects China's increasing national strength. The fact that US and Japan can't do much to stop China's creation of an ADIZ other than throwing a fit serves as a proof.

For the past two years, China has been copying both US and Japan in terms of actions in the region. For example, China's act of sending coast guard vessels to Diaoyudao is simply a duplicate of what Japan has been doing. Likewise, China creation of an ADIZ is exactly what Japan has been doing. These actions seem like an attempt to "shoehorn Japan and the USN away from... an area of privileged interests" because both US and Japan have been trying to shoehorn China away from an area of privileged interests called the Pacific. It is that simple.

China is attempting something very risky... and perhaps not totally thought through. What does the end game look like? It's hard to see how Beijing comes out on top in this.

In fact, I think Beijing has committed an "own goal" here... and needs a way out. The arrival of Vice Pres Biden may provide a means to deescalate the situation.

There is only one wrong choice here... and that is for China to continue down this path.

Continue doing what it has been doing is not a wrong choice, but it is the exact choice that will allow China to come out on top easily. China isn't the trouble maker and has no reason to be one, because time is in favor of China. However, time is running out for Japan, which is why Japan has been stirring up troubles lately.

It is true that Washington has some fairly ambivalent feelings towards this island issue. However, let there be no confusion, if there is firing-Japan is a treaty ally. Look at our history. It should be clear. Do not fire on US allies. The results will be swift and decisive. That is not bluster or ego nationalism. It is just the way it is.

That sort of threat will only cause China to be swift and decisive at disarming Japan as soon as shooting begins, rather than allow the situation to be escalated as would happen without US's involvement. Given the choice to fight the combined force of US and Japan, and the choice to fight only US, it is a no brainier that the latter option is easier.

I have deep respect for China and the Chinese armed forces. I also respect China strategic thinking. That is why I am totally bewildered by the chips the Chinese have staked with such a weak hand. Unwise.

That is a contradictory statement. Before any strategic decision is made, it must have gone through multiple think tanks in the Chinese government, with as many eventualities thought out as possible. Your statement indicates that you think all those involved in making the decision are idiots. This would contradict your claim that you respect for China, Chinese arm forces, and Chinese strategic thinking.

The possibility of hundreds if not thousands of people simultaneously being idiots and made a bad decision is extremely remote. A more viable alternative is that you are simply unhappy with China's decision.

BTW-to claim this is just another ADIZ like any other ADIZ is a farce. Clearly, this is a provocative act... in an area of high military tension. If Beijing did not understand this... they should have. I'm sure they do now.

That does not make any sense at all. The area being a region of high military tension places even more imperative for China to have an ADIZ. Also, given Japan's creation of ADIZ was not considered as a provocation, your claim that China's creation of an ADIZ being a provocation is unfounded.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

Opinion-China's new ADIZ is intended to establish a new status quo and begin to shoehorn Japan and the USN away from, what Beijing considers, an area of privileged interests. The last two years of very close and very tense encounters in those waters and air space tells that tale.

China is attempting something very risky... and perhaps not totally thought through. What does the end game look like? It's hard to see how Beijing comes out on top in this.

In fact, I think Beijing has committed an "own goal" here... and needs a way out. The arrival of Vice Pres Biden may provide a means to deescalate the situation.

There is only one wrong choice here... and that is for China to continue down this path.

It is true that Washington has some fairly ambivalent feelings towards this island issue. However, let there be no confusion, if there is firing-Japan is a treaty ally. Look at our history. It should be clear. Do not fire on US allies. The results will be swift and decisive. That is not bluster or ego nationalism. It is just the way it is.

I have deep respect for China and the Chinese armed forces. I also respect China strategic thinking. That is why I am totally bewildered by the chips the Chinese have staked with such a weak hand. Unwise.

BTW-to claim this is just another ADIZ like any other ADIZ is a farce. Clearly, this is a provocative act... in an area of high military tension. If Beijing did not understand this... they should have. I'm sure they do now.

Anyone who expect China will back down from confrontation must be living in dream world.China is not the same China like it was 20 years ago. The public opinion do count and the public back up the Adiz by overwhelming majority. The game has just started and China will be there for the long haul. The western media and talking head are crowing too early . The CCP is riding the tiger on this one. Today China sent surveillance aircraft back by J 11 fighter

I don't see why China should not set up and ADiz when Japan and Korea do the same It doesn't make sense


China sent several aircraft to patrol its air defence identification zone yesterday and said such missions would become regular events, raising tensions with countries that refuse to recognise the zone.

Japan and South Korea both said earlier that they had defied China by sending military planes over the zone yesterday, and Japan said it would continue to do so in future. Those operations met no resistance from Beijing.

Late on Tuesday the US sent two B-52 bombers over the zone.

Air force spokesman Colonel Shen Jinke said China sent a KJ-2000 early warning aircraft and several Sukhoi Su-30 and J-11 jet fighters into the zone.

Such patrols would become regular in the future "to strengthen the identification and surveillance of flying objects in the ADIZ", Xinhua reported.

Shen said the patrols were defensive and aligned with international practice. The air force would remain on high alert and "adopt proper measures to respond to different threats in the air to firmly guarantee air security", Xinhua cited Shen as saying.

A Chinese expert said Beijing would not resist or resort to military action unless it detected hostile intentions.

Responding to rejection of the air defence identification zone by Japan and the US, the Ministry of National Defence said Japan had no right to judge China. "We would like to ask Japan to revoke its own ADIZ first. China will then consider this request in 44 years," ministry spokesman Yang Yujun said, referring to Tokyo's establishment of its air defence zone in 1969.

Watch: An explainer on what the South China Sea dispute about.

Yang said China had conducted "timely identification" of the Japanese and South Korean aircraft and was "in full control" of the situation.

On Saturday, China became the latest country in the region to establish an air defence identification zone. Regional countries responded with concern as the Chinese zone overlaps those of its neighbours, notably around the disputed Diaoyu islands that are claimed by China but controlled by Japan, which calls them the Senkaku islands.

Another concern is that China requires all aircraft, military and civilian, to inform its authorities of their route in advance. Analysts say China does not distinguish between aircraft flying through the ADIZ, which is not its airspace, and those flying towards Chinese airspace. The US only applies identification procedures to foreign flights that intend to enter its airspace.

The Ministry of National Defence has said it would take "defensive emergency measures" if aircraft did not follow its instructions.

Amid growing concern of a miscalculation, Chinese experts said the risks of confrontation remained low at this point.

Xu Guangyu, a retired general, said a standard procedure responding to a foreign aircraft flying in the zone without prior notice would have the Chinese military first engaging in radio communication.

"If you tell us who you are and that you are not here for hostile purposes, there is no problem," Xu said. "If you still don't respond, then that means you are not being friendly. We will send aircraft to follow and monitor you. And if we find out that you are heading to our sovereign airspace we will intercept."

Just as Japan refuses to recognise China's zone, China refuses to recognise Japan's zone, which was first established in 1969 and expanded in 2010, and has sent military aircraft to fly through it without prior notification.

Japan has reported it responded to a record number of Chinese incursions in its ADIZ in the first half of the year.

Li Jie, a Beijing-based naval expert, said the overlap over the disputed Diaoyu islands would force China
and Japan to sit down and negotiate.


n a poll by the Global Times Public Opinion Research Centre under the state-owned newspaper Global Times, 53.6 per cent of respondents believed that establishing the zone would give China the upper hand in solving its disputes over the Diaoyus, known as the Senkakus in Japan.

Of respondents, 39.5 per cent believed it would help to stabilise the region, while only 4.3 per cent believed it would have a negative impact on China.

In all, 1,107 respondents, aged above 18, in seven cities - Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu , Xian , Changsha and Shenyang - had taken part in the survey by Monday.

Another survey conducted by a user on China.com showed that more than 99 per cent of 110,000 respondents supported the central government's move yesterday, with fewer than 0.5 per cent opposing it.

 

[Blackstone]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

Opinion-China's new ADIZ is intended to establish a new status quo and begin to shoehorn Japan and the USN away from, what Beijing considers, an area of privileged interests. The last two years of very close and very tense encounters in those waters and air space tells that tale.

China is attempting something very risky... and perhaps not totally thought through. What does the end game look like? It's hard to see how Beijing comes out on top in this.

In fact, I think Beijing has committed an "own goal" here... and needs a way out. The arrival of Vice Pres Biden may provide a means to deescalate the situation.

Risky? Maybe, but China effectively changed the status quo over Diaoyu dao area without firing a single shot or landing a single troop on the islands. China has already come up on top based on that alone, and whatever international outrage there might be will die down soon enough. China is a clear winner, as long as she could work with the US behind the scene and keep Japan from foaming at the mouth too much. Biden's visit is an opportunity to do that.

There is only one wrong choice here... and that is for China to continue down this path.

Pray tell why China can't establish the same kinds of ADIZs that Japan, ROC, Taiwan, and the US have done? The fact she hadn't done so up to now isn't good enough.

It is true that Washington has some fairly ambivalent feelings towards this island issue. However, let there be no confusion, if there is firing-Japan is a treaty ally. Look at our history. It should be clear. Do not fire on US allies. The results will be swift and decisive. That is not bluster or ego nationalism. It is just the way it is.

China isn't likely to fire the first shot against Japan.

I have deep respect for China and the Chinese armed forces. I also respect China strategic thinking. That is why I am totally bewildered by the chips the Chinese have staked with such a weak hand. Unwise.

How do you figure China has a weak hand? She has the largest foreign reserve in the world, and 124 countries count her as their biggest trading partner, including the US, Japan, ROC, Taiwan, and most of the rest of nations in Asia. That gives China a lot of social, economic, and political clout all over the world. Her military modernization and A2AD programs are progressing well enough to take notice. These are not weak hands.

PS- thank you for serving our great country!

 

[blacklist]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

Frankly after i read your quote "our border actually begins twelve miles off the Chinese coast" and then
"We have NO desire for territorial expansion" it actually give me a bad case of vertigo.

Nothing exists in isolation and the ADIZ is just a part of much bigger picture. Again I remind people that the Pacific is the only direct frontier between the worlds two largest and rival powers. While Oceans may appear huge, in Geopolitical terms, they are none existent, because they do not constitute territory and cannot be controlled. In that sense, the border of the balance of firepower between the two nations can only exist in one of two locations. Either it is 12 nautical miles off of the East Coast of China, or it is 12 nautical miles off of the West Coast of the Continental USA. Currently it is 12 nautical miles off the Chinese coast and as long as the 1st Island Chain holds, will stay there. Anything therefore that threatens the integrity of the 1st Island Chain is a serious threat and must be countered in some way.

The ADIZ is a threat as it allows China to normalise and formularise an ever greater degree of control over this area. It also opens the door for the PRC to openly declare the Diayou as Chinese Territory and to declare an Air and Sea exclusion zone around. Of course an ADIZ is not necessary for China to make such a declaration, but it does potentially represent the first of a number of salami slice steps that make doing so easier to achieve.

So why is China doing this. Well it is pushing at the the border that is the most critical to the US and while it has little realistic hope of changing the status quo in the Pacific for the foreseeable future, it does force the US to reinforce its position both politically and militarily and such reinforcements will come at the expense of other deployments in Asia and the Middle East, which are areas that China is far more interested in expanding into across land and where its influence is already becoming marked with the return and creation of Silk Roads old and new.








Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding, you young man get the prize of the day, your first paragraph put the primary thesis of this whole argument in black and white, with a quote I used during our last presidential election with a daughter who was a dyed in the wool Ron Pualine. and that was that "our border actually begins twelve miles off the Chinese coast". Those who practice isolationism like the US did prior to WWII, will inevitably find themselves drawn into a conflict, where our allies and friends will need to be joined in order to defend their way of life, and we will be lacking as we were at Pearl Harbor. We will and we must engage those who threaten our freedom to life, liberty, and happiness, domestically and abroad. We have NO desire for territorial expansion, or to force others to our own unique brand of government, we will however protect and defend those who are allies and share our love of individual liberty, and respect OUR way of life. Others make false statements accusing us of "forcing" our way of life on others, we do not, we will not!

Now sadly many of the policies of this present regime, do attempt to control and intimidate others, "specifically, drone attacks in states where we have been asked to cease and desist with those attacks", in fact our own freedoms in this Republic are threatened, "specifically, by the individual MANDATE, in the unaffordable care act". NOW, I did not include this last statement to be political, but in the interest of honesty, NO the United States are NOT PERFECT, NO I am not blind to her failings, YES, I do honor the good will and sovereingnty of ALL NATIONS, but I reserve the right to condemn those acts and policies which are contrary to our liberty. Air Force Brat

anyway, great post Viking, brat

 

[Blackstone]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

Frankly after i read your quote "our border actually begins twelve miles off the Chinese coast" and then
"We have NO desire for territorial expansion" it actually give me a bad case of vertigo.

Why would that give you vertigo? Traditionally speaking, China isn't an expansionist power, so her claims of no desire for territorial expansion isn't unbelievable. Diaoyu dao is a territorial dispute with Japan and not conquest or colonization.

 

[T-U-P]

In an effort to clean up this forum, all discussions concerning the Chinese ADIZ will be made here. DO NOT create new threads on this subject.

This thread will be subject to closures if discussion gets out of hand. That DOES NOT mean you should make a new thread on this subject!

 

[blacklist]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

please read airforce brat post, you just make my vertigo even worse... its wasnt about China...shhhh

Why would that give you vertigo? Traditionally speaking, China isn't an expansionist power, so her claims of no desire for territorial expansion isn't unbelievable. Diaoyu dao is a territorial dispute with Japan and not conquest or colonization.

 

[Cyclist]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

I read a member post here that China will be beaten down if USA attack. Yes, it is a fact that USA is economically and militarily larger than China, more advanced, and even China admits that USA is the sole superpower. China is not superpower. Therefore, indirectly China admits that it is weaker than USA.

But please think logically, China is not Iran or Syria. Recently, USA even backed down when they already decided to attack Syria. Economically and militarily, China is multiple times larger than Iran and Syria, will USA really risk the war with China? The way I see it, if there is a war now between China and USA, both will end up injured, mutual assured destruction for both countries.

So, let's take war scenario out, just play the strategy game. By setting up ADIZ, China is playing strategy game. How to win a war without firing a single shot. But of course, you will need a stronger military and economic to back up. That's why China should keep growing, grow stronger, reach superpower status, be a responsible stakeholder, benevolent great power, or whatever it wants to be called.

 

[Blitzo]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

Opinion-China's new ADIZ is intended to establish a new status quo and begin to shoehorn Japan and the USN away from, what Beijing considers, an area of privileged interests. The last two years of very close and very tense encounters in those waters and air space tells that tale.

China is attempting something very risky... and perhaps not totally thought through. What does the end game look like? It's hard to see how Beijing comes out on top in this.

The end game is simple. I will elaborate.

In my opinion China has two main goals for the ADIZ.

One of them is related to the disputed islands, the second is related to the overall security needs of the country.

Let's look at the first.
Japan has repeatedly stated in the last couple of years that there is "no" territorial dispute over the islands. The government has maintained that line. It has escalated various acts since 2010, including the arresting of a Chinese fisherman in the waters around the islands, ramping up coast guard patrols, using its own ADIZ as an extension of its alarmist view of Chinese aircraft that near the islands, and threatening to shoot down foreign drones that enter its airspace with a pointed view to the islands.

China until now has only responded with also sending its own coast guard and CMS patrols in the waters of the islands alongside Japanese coast guard vessels, and the single flight account where a CMS Y-12 briefly entered the disputed airspace. More recently they have done more extensive aerial surveillance of the first island chain including the disputed islands, but all in international airspace.
The announcement of the ADIZ encompassing the islands allows China to directly challenge Japan's claim that there is "no" territorial dispute, because if Japan is so insistent that on its sovereignty over the islands, then if China sends military aircraft over the islands then by association Japan must shoot them down, correct? If they do not shoot down PLAAF or PLANAF aircraft then they'd effectively be conceding there is a dispute and their control is not uncontested.

That is a major victory for China because the strategy these last few years was always to deny Japan's claims that their sovereignty is uncontested.

Of course this idea may unravel if Japan decides to shoot at Chinese aircraft -- but do we think Japan is willing to start a war? I personally doubt it. So the other only option is to not shoot and only observe, possibly engage in aggressive maneuvering with Chinese aircraft. That constitutes a victory.



Now, the other achievement of this ADIZ is security related.
ADIZs are meant to give a nation the right to intercept and ID potentially threatening aircraft in an airspace beyond its borders. In an age of high speed bombers and fighter jets, this is natural. The US, Japan, and a myriad of other nations all have had extensive ADIZs for decades.
In this case, it gives China the right to do more interceptions at longer range.
If China had conducted more interceptions at longer range without the cover of an ADIZ, then there would be even more international "condemnation" and "concern" than there is now.

We should clarify, that China never said they would intercept every single noncompliant aircraft within its ADIZ. Indeed, while the wording of the original ADIZ statement was "we will deal with noncompliant aircraft with emergency military maneuvers" (or something to that effect), it has since been clarified that it's meaning is more "we reserve the right to deal with noncompliant aircraft with emergency military maneuvers".
So China doesn't have to intercept every single noncompliant aircraft or shoot them down.

That would be ridiculous.

However by merely outlining their right to perform such actions, it gives greater pseud-legal scope for the PLAAF and PLANAF to defend China's security against forward based USAF strike fighters, bombers, and USN carrier based aircraft that operate in the ECS.
Even a neutral observer would understand that China faces a massive air threat from forward based US combat aircraft, and an ADIZ is the least China should have in place to defend the mainland from potential air attacks.




So, if Japan and the US wants China to back down, what can they do?

Well, Japan may be be able to make China agree to rescind part of its ADIZ over the disputed islands if Japan too retracts its ADIZ a couple of hundred kilometers to make the islansd "de militarized" and also if Japan agrees that the islands are indeed under dispute and begins bilateral negotiations. Frankly I believe this was one of the main goals of including the ADIZ over the islands.

But if Japan or the US wants China to abolish its ADIZ completely, they are very much mistaken.
Like I said, China faces massive air threats -- perhaps the most any single large nation in the world faces, aside from Iran and North Korea. US carrier battle groups and airbases hold a good fraction of the US war machine's airstrike capability, and it is flexible, competent and dangerous -- and aimed at China. Until such a threat is far from China's doorstep, China has a need to secure its peripheral airspace with an ADIZ.

Hell, the continental US faces virtually no air threat from any nation, yet its ADIZ is still one of the most massive in the world.
So in that sense, don't expect China to abolish its ADIZ.

 

[A.Man]

The Map of Japanese ADIZ & China. It is very Naïve to believe that China will allow Japan to block its way forever!