China's Space Program Thread II

[TheRathalos]

No red banner？

Not yet, not officially


According to this insider (emposat employee afaik, they do track many Jiuquan commercial launches) the launch could be a success and payloads onboard could include satellites from Beijing Future Navigation Technology (Centispace constellation)

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A rumor for the lack of official statement is that one satellite may have been lost following the launches (unknown if it's due to the launcher or unrelated to it)


BTW, Emposat Recently raised 1.4 billion RMB in Series D+ and D++ round (and 0.6B in a D round before), they're valued at 10 billions RMB

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"Since its inception, the company has provided paid services for over 500 satellites and rockets, with its telemetry, tracking, and command (TT&C) data transmission services doubling in volume for four consecutive years.""

 

[manqiangrexue]

Actually what I wrote was the actual full matter being debated. To quote the post that you replied to:



I assume that most people would interpret "future success in catching up to spacex/starlink" is in context of whatever timespan exists to close the gap in a way that does not cause an irreversible or difficult to reverse long term trend -- keep in mind SpaceX itself and Starlink et al is a moving target, they are not staying still.

That might have been the scope before but I added that it's need-based. China's not like the Soviets; we don't build things just to say we have the most or largest. Do we have the need, or would be have much benefit from massively increase space launch capability?

It's reasonable to say that China has a chance to close the gap and/or catch up with SpaceX in capability.

Of course we do. There's not a technology out there where China doesn't have a very very good chance. Everybody has some kind of chance to do anything; this is a pointless understatement.

It is not reasonable to say that China is guaranteed to do catch up. If you seriously think China is guaranteed in doing so,\

I think it is very reasonable. Qualitatively, the most difficult technologies are lithography and jet engines. China is the fastest-moving in both areas, has become a world leader and in lithography, the most self-sufficient country while other advanced countries must piece their work together to achive a full production line. Rocket technology, to the best of my knowledge, are not only less complex, but also more affected by quantitative measure, which moves into manufacturing, which is China's specialty. If a rocket needs more payload, it is possible to improve it by adding more thrusters (to a limit imposed by structural load-bearing capability of the body). If a larger rocket could launch 10 satellites, a smaller more limited rocket can launch 5 but we can use 3 of them to launch 15, beating the larger rocket and our costs could still be lower. From what I know, China has done much more difficult things; if we are focused, we will surely get this done.

then that is a level of confidence that is more consistent with Jai Hind style chest beating.

How so?

India: Lost 6-7 aircraft without shooting down anything from Pakistan, loses Tejas at airshow.
Jai Hind: No, we didn't. The Rafale flew back to base without its tail. Actually, we shot down 15 JF-17 without taking any loss. Tejas crash is nothing; China crashed over 300 J-15. US sabotaged Tejas engine because it's scared of India.

China: Fastest growing super economy, largest PPP in the world, beat the US in 2 trade wars, currently beating the US in a tech war.
Me: If China can do what we're doing in lithography and jet engines, then with national priority, I'm sure we can catch up to and surpass SpaceX too.

Sounds like the same thing to you?

Edit: and if the argument is "China is guaranteed to succeed to catch up if they really tried, but right now they just aren't trying because it's not a priority" then that's an even worse thing to say.

How much of a priority do you think this is for China to build higher payload rockets? From what I know, it's not nearly a national priority as jet engines or semiconductors. Do you believe that China's development is significantly hindered by its rocket tech limits and that there is great need to quickly reach and exceed SpaceX's abilities? Would it significantly help us?

 

[ReanFean]

Am I the only one who thinks this space hype is pretty useless. Internet satellites aren't profitable. They won't gain major marketshare to recoup cousts and they have to be relaunched every 7 years, that's how long they can stay in orbit. It's main purpose is for military communication, not commercial profit. And space computing, is so dumb, the only thing I think it would be useful for is military, like computing all the data in space because bandwidth of beaming it back to earth is too low. Maybe useful for intelligence, not for AI computing

 

[Michael90]

China launches 22nd batch of Guowang satellites using LM-12 Rocket.

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Whats the payload of long march 12? Since I believe guowang satellites are heavy sats.

 

[gk1713]

New fuel used on this LM12
Compared with conventional rocket kerosene, high-energy kerosene offers a remarkable advantage in specific impulse. When applied to liquid oxygen–kerosene engines, it can increase the engine’s specific impulse by approximately 8 seconds, thereby enhancing the payload capacity of rockets of various classes by hundreds of kilograms to several tons. Consequently, the overall launch vehicle payload capability can be improved by around 10%.

 

[Blitzo]

That might have been the scope before but I added that it's need-based. China's not like the Soviets; we don't build things just to say we have the most or largest. Do we have the need, or would be have much benefit from massively increase space launch capability?

Of course we do. There's not a technology out there where China doesn't have a very very good chance. Everybody has some kind of chance to do anything; this is a pointless understatement.

I think it is very reasonable. Qualitatively, the most difficult technologies are lithography and jet engines. China is the fastest-moving in both areas, has become a world leader and in lithography, the most self-sufficient country while other advanced countries must piece their work together to achive a full production line. Rocket technology, to the best of my knowledge, are not only less complex, but also more affected by quantitative measure, which moves into manufacturing, which is China's specialty. If a rocket needs more payload, it is possible to improve it by adding more thrusters (to a limit imposed by structural load-bearing capability of the body). If a larger rocket could launch 10 satellites, a smaller more limited rocket can launch 5 but we can use 3 of them to launch 15, beating the larger rocket and our costs could still be lower. From what I know, China has done much more difficult things; if we are focused, we will surely get this done.

If your overall argument is that you think China's current state of space launch vs SpaceX/US is due to the PRC not prioritizing it, then that is fine.
(I think it would indicate a degree of short sightedness and poor strategic planning by the PRC, but sure it's fine from a logical pov).

But if you are saying that you believe that if the PRC was to prioritize space launch, that it is guaranteed they would "catch up" with SpaceX/US launch capabilities, that is far too overconfident, unrealistic, and has parallels with "Indian style nationalism" that has been described before.

How so?

India: Lost 6-7 aircraft without shooting down anything from Pakistan, loses Tejas at airshow.
Jai Hind: No, we didn't. The Rafale flew back to base without its tail. Actually, we shot down 15 JF-17 without taking any loss. Tejas crash is nothing; China crashed over 300 J-15. US sabotaged Tejas engine because it's scared of India.

China: Fastest growing super economy, largest PPP in the world, beat the US in 2 trade wars, currently beating the US in a tech war.
Me: If China can do what we're doing in lithography and jet engines, then with national priority, I'm sure we can catch up to and surpass SpaceX too.

Sounds like the same thing to you?

"Indian style nationalism" is characterized in my eyes by an unswerving confidence in one's perceived in group in a manner where reasonable doubts and common sense alternatives are dispensed in favour of thinking one is guaranteed a positive outcome or a "win" as being inevitable.

The idea that the PRC would be guaranteed to "catch up" if they put their priority into it, for a time sensitive technological race like Space, where (for now) they are reasonably behind, imo, very much meets that criteria for overconfidence and assuming the positive outcome as inevitable.

How much of a priority do you think this is for China to build higher payload rockets? From what I know, it's not nearly a national priority as jet engines or semiconductors. Do you believe that China's development is significantly hindered by its rocket tech limits and that there is great need to quickly reach and exceed SpaceX's abilities? Would it significantly help us?

How much of a priority it is for China currently is not actually knowable, because the CPC keeps their cards close to their chest. Even when things are recognized as important, they might not openly vocalize it for any number of reasons.

There are actually a few technological/industry domains of competition which have potential for causing disproportionate consequences if one party was able to achieve a significant lead, which I have in mind, and high cadence/high payload space access is one of them.
The topic is beyond the scope of this thread...
But if you are asking me about my specific views about the importance of space launch/space access -- putting it in short, yes I believe that there may potentially be a time sensitive competition to accessing space with real world military, economic, technological consequences which might be difficult to reverse if one allowed a competitor to get too far ahead.

 

[manqiangrexue]

If your overall argument is that you think China's current state of space launch vs SpaceX/US is due to the PRC not prioritizing it, then that is fine.

That's what I said. There's no signs that they are prioritizing it nearly as much as the other hot topics.

(I think it would indicate a degree of short sightedness and poor strategic planning by the PRC, but sure it's fine from a logical pov).

Could they know something more than what is available to you? Could they be keeping themselves at the distance such that China is not too far behind to sprint but also puts the competitor in a position to bear the brunt of the headwinds (ie demonstrating viable and unviable paths through test and failure)?

But if you are saying that you believe that if the PRC was to prioritize space launch, that it is guaranteed they would "catch up" with SpaceX/US launch capabilities, that is far too overconfident, unrealistic, and has parallels with "Indian style nationalism" that has been described before.

Once again, I do not think so, because China's track record is to chase down and run over the US at important technologies while it is not India's track record to surpass China or the US at anything important. This is just pattern recognition without intimate knowledge of the field.

"Indian style nationalism" is characterized in my eyes by an unswerving confidence in one's perceived in group in a manner where reasonable doubts and common sense alternatives are dispensed in favour of thinking one is guaranteed a positive outcome or a "win" as being inevitable.

The idea that the PRC would be guaranteed to "catch up" if they put their priority into it, for a time sensitive technological race like Space, where (for now) they are reasonably behind, imo, very much meets that criteria for overconfidence and assuming the positive outcome as inevitable.

It's a matter of degree, isn't it? Indians are confident that they can do something they've never achieved before while I'm confident that China can do again what it has a pattern of doing in other fields. If you do not recognize the degree and the difference, then anyone who says that something is certainly going to happen before it happens, is an Indian. Anyone who makes a prediction of success based on track record other than Captain Hindsight's, "I can't guess if it'll happen unless it happens or doesn't happen," is an Indian.

I chose those examples of what Indians say (in my last post) specifically to make you understand degree and extreme that would characterize how Indians behave.

How much of a priority it is for China currently is not actually knowable, because the CPC keeps their cards close to their chest. Even when things are recognized as important, they might not openly vocalize it for any number of reasons.

Well, like I said, I don't see a visible straining effort like in jet engines or semiconductors. And you're saying you don't know, so why did you say that it is "even worse" for me to assert that China's not racing forward here because they've not deemed it as high a priority?

There are actually a few technological/industry domains of competition which have potential for causing disproportionate consequences if one party was able to achieve a significant lead, which I have in mind, and high cadence/high payload space access is one of them.
The topic is beyond the scope of this thread...
But if you are asking me about my specific views about the importance of space launch/space access -- putting it in short, yes I believe that there may potentially be a time sensitive competition to accessing space with real world military, economic, technological consequences which might be difficult to reverse if one allowed a competitor to get too far ahead.

Maybe you're right and maybe not; I'm not sure, but the importance of technologies is time-dependent. The Soviets wasted vast resources on a space race that would not have been helpful to them to win or harmful for them to lose. It's the job of China's experts to determine whether the space domain has become a critical factor in today's technological environment or if it will become another rather useless money pit.

 

[Blitzo]

That's what I said. There's no signs that they are prioritizing it nearly as much as the other hot topics.

If your argument is limited to this, then that is fine.

Could they know something more than what is available to you? Could they be keeping themselves at the distance such that China is not too far behind to sprint but also puts the competitor in a position to bear the brunt of the headwinds (ie demonstrating viable and unviable paths through test and failure)?

I am absolutely happy to acknowledge that as a possibility.
However I am also obliged to acknowledge it is a possibility that they may not be able to catch up with the competition (i.e.: catch up is not guaranteed), and not being able to do so is a reflection of so-called "Indian style nationalism".

Once again, I do not think so, because China's track record is to chase down and run over the US at important technologies while it is not India's track record to surpass China or the US at anything important. This is just pattern recognition without intimate knowledge of the field.

It's a matter of degree, isn't it? Indians are confident that they can do something they've never achieved before while I'm confident that China can do again what it has a pattern of doing in other fields. If you do not recognize the degree and the difference, then anyone who says that something is certainly going to happen before it happens, is an Indian. Anyone who makes a prediction of success based on track record other than Captain Hindsight's, "I can't guess if it'll happen unless it happens or doesn't happen," is an Indian.

I chose those examples of what Indians say (in my last post) specifically to make you understand degree and extreme that would characterize how Indians behave.

Well, like I said, I don't see a visible straining effort like in jet engines or semiconductors. And you're saying you don't know, so why did you say that it is "even worse" for me to assert that China's not racing forward here because they've not deemed it as high a priority?

Maybe you're right and maybe not; I'm not sure, but the importance of technologies is time-dependent. The Soviets wasted vast resources on a space race that would not have been helpful to them to win or harmful for them to lose. It's the job of China's experts to determine whether the space domain has become a critical factor in today's technological environment or if it will become another rather useless money pit.

See my above points.
I have nothing else to write on the matter.

 

[manqiangrexue]

If your argument is limited to this, then that is fine.

It's this and that if China put pedal to the metal, America's launch tech lead would not hold on.

I am absolutely happy to acknowledge that as a possibility.
However I am also obliged to acknowledge it is a possibility that they may not be able to catch up with the competition (i.e.: catch up is not guaranteed), and not being able to do so is a reflection of so-called "Indian style nationalism".

Acknowledging that something may or may not happen is the default answer with no background knowledge of the tech or circumstances. If you asked me anything I don't understand, my answer is maybe, maybe not.

If using past track records of success to predict future success with a high degree of confidence is Indian style nationalism, then what do you call guaranteeing victory through disseminating untruths despite a past record of failure?

See my above points.
I have nothing else to write on the matter.

See mine. I've not gotten any answer from you about whether you think it's different to guarantee victory from a track record of victory vs to guarantee victory from a track record of being left behind. You've so far treated them the same... both as Indians for some reason. You seemed to understand the difference in your first response, but then you have conflated them together.

 

[PopularScience]

Not yet, not officially


According to this insider (emposat employee afaik, they do track many Jiuquan commercial launches) the launch could be a success and payloads onboard could include satellites from Beijing Future Navigation Technology (Centispace constellation)

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

A rumor for the lack of official statement is that one satellite may have been lost following the launches (unknown if it's due to the launcher or unrelated to it)


BTW, Emposat Recently raised 1.4 billion RMB in Series D+ and D++ round (and 0.6B in a D round before), they're valued at 10 billions RMB

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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"Since its inception, the company has provided paid services for over 500 satellites and rockets, with its telemetry, tracking, and command (TT&C) data transmission services doubling in volume for four consecutive years.""

he succeeded

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