Once DeepSeek came out, it was over in my opinion, simple because of economics of the principle of diminishing returns. In fact, how these LLM are constructed internal, apparently we see the same concept in action where increasing compute power does not lead to more better model, but the efficiency of the output goes down. Hence, it has it own non-economic diminishing returns.
All this means is that once DeepSeek came out the game was over. American AI being in the hands of only a handful of private companies, will only compete among themselves for customers, who probably in the long run the biggest customer will be the US government. While China and could be most of everyone else, will take advantage of open source AI that they control and tweak themselves.
It is too painful for the Americans to admit that. So we get this story of AGI.
AGI my ass. A recent story demonstrates the folly of the AGI god. I saw a recent video that a city in China was using AI with sensors mounted on a top of a car, that would scan the road for defects like potholes. That was unbelievable! They fix potholes in China! Now, when the Americans achieve AGI ... will they fix their potholes!? We already know the answer to that, and we know logically that most of this AGI talk is total bullshit.
Notice how we never hear or read about the word diffusion anymore. No one should be unclear about that.
Disclaimer. Although I believe American pursuit of AGI to be total bullshit, just saying crap to cover their asses, this AI boom is real.
AI will improve software, which humans use to improve productivity. Since the modern economy all runs on software of some sort, this AI boom will last for a while.
If this AI boom is a ten story building, then I would say we are at level 3, while the US stock market is at level six. But still a long way to go to reach level 10 of this building.
By the time the general economy reaches level 10 with AI usage, the American stock market probably be at level 20, while those derivatives at level 300 or more. Haha!