The War in the Ukraine

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Seems like even they don't believe anymore that Russia could conquer Europe by conventional means.

As for nuke warfare…. China won’t allow it.

Timing is interesting and somewhat telling just as Putin is visiting China.

The Ukraine war would be going very differently if China had the degree of influence over Russia as you are implying.

Russia might be the far less powerful party, but they have full strategic autonomy, meaning if they were hell bent on using nukes, there isn’t a massive amount China could do about it.

What this is most likely about is the Russians subtlety doing their aggressive begging while also creating diplomatic cover for China to expand exports of key dual use or more explicitly military items the Russians want.

Basically you need to make XYZ available for export at scale or we will be forced to seriously consider using nukes to achieve our objectives instead.

The most likely area that the Russians would like assistance with is in countering long range Ukrainian drone attacks against their key oil and gas infrastructure.
 

sutton999

Junior Member
Registered Member
Timing is interesting and somewhat telling just as Putin is visiting China.

The Ukraine war would be going very differently if China had the degree of influence over Russia as you are implying.

Russia might be the far less powerful party, but they have full strategic autonomy, meaning if they were hell bent on using nukes, there isn’t a massive amount China could do about it.

What this is most likely about is the Russians subtlety doing their aggressive begging while also creating diplomatic cover for China to expand exports of key dual use or more explicitly military items the Russians want.

Basically you need to make XYZ available for export at scale or we will be forced to seriously consider using nukes to achieve our objectives instead.

The most likely area that the Russians would like assistance with is in countering long range Ukrainian drone attacks against their key oil and gas infrastructure.
Absolutely no sign of nuk, you would think the Europeans would be spooked first.
In fact, recent drone attacks are routed through Poland and Baltic countries, yet Russia keeps quiet about it.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Hazelnuts or Iskanders with clusters? Kinetic with deep penetration? New missile?



Kyiv is smoked. These kind of smoke suggests to me, massive underground ammunition and weapons depots


More drones and the usual missile enchilada of Kh so and so, Kalibers and Iskanders.

 
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Soldier30

Captain
Registered Member
The Russian army launched a large-scale combined missile attack on Kyiv and Bila Tserkva on the night of May 24. Oreshnik ballistic missiles were used in the attack; the video shows impacts with warheads, but not the warheads. Zircon hypersonic missiles, Iskander ballistic missiles, and Kh-101 cruise missiles were also used, and strikes by Geran-2 drones were also recorded. Ukraine deployed Patriot air defense systems to repel the attack; missile remnants were found on the roads. Military targets were reportedly targeted, but damage to residential buildings in Kyiv was also documented, as shown at the end of the video. This may have been the result of air defense missiles falling or drones being shot down.

 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Timing is interesting and somewhat telling just as Putin is visiting China.

The Ukraine war would be going very differently if China had the degree of influence over Russia as you are implying.

Russia might be the far less powerful party, but they have full strategic autonomy, meaning if they were hell bent on using nukes, there isn’t a massive amount China could do about it.

What this is most likely about is the Russians subtlety doing their aggressive begging while also creating diplomatic cover for China to expand exports of key dual use or more explicitly military items the Russians want.

Basically you need to make XYZ available for export at scale or we will be forced to seriously consider using nukes to achieve our objectives instead.

The most likely area that the Russians would like assistance with is in countering long range Ukrainian drone attacks against their key oil and gas infrastructure.

Putin and Xi signed a bunch of agreements, around cooperation on AI, aviation (C919 engines?), nuclear power (Russia exports Uranium and nuclear power expertise), rare earths (Russia has tons of it), agriculture trade, visa free borderless movement, and so on.

Basically agreed on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, only minor details to be worked out, expect formal signing soon. With that, all the natural gas that used to flow to Europe, now goes to China.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Putin and Xi signed a bunch of agreements, around cooperation on AI, aviation (C919 engines?), nuclear power (Russia exports Uranium and nuclear power expertise), rare earths (Russia has tons of it), agriculture trade, visa free borderless movement, and so on.

Basically agreed on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, only minor details to be worked out, expect formal signing soon. With that, all the natural gas that used to flow to Europe, now goes to China.

Power of Siberia 2 is happening because of the confluence of two factors. China now feels it's Middle East supply chain is now vulnerable and can be potentially be put into hostage thanks to the events in the Persian Gulf. For Russia, Ukrainian drones attacks on refineries and ports to the west has made this route vulnerable. You also have what happened to the Nordstreams. If it wasn't for Hungary and Slovakia, the Druzhba pipeline, which runs through Ukraine, would have been shut down. Ukraine lets the gas pass on a deal that lets Ukraine get electricity from Hungary and Slovakia which ironically is powered from Russian fossil carbon.

So this is a massive shift to the East. There's even talk about a Power of Siberia 3.

If these pipelines turned full play, and with all the refineries China has, China can potentially become/or already has, an exporting refined carbon power. Processed oil products will now leave from tankers in the Chinese coast to destinations across East Asia and the Pacific. China already exports jet fuel to Australia. This in turn means a fundamental, structural shift in oil power, and a huge boost to the Petro-Yuan.

Reminds me how the UK is importing jet fuel from India, who is sourcing Russian oil for this.

UK defers import ban on diesel, jet fuel derived from Russian crude.

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There's four types of oil power.

First are countries that rely mainly on exporting crude. Example Venezuela.

Second are countries that rely mainly on refining and exporting refined products. Example, Malaysia.

Third are countries with both. Example, Saudi Arabia, Russia.

Fourth are countries with both but consume much of what they produce internally, example US and China. For this, they also import.

When Russian refineries get bombed, the oil simply moves elsewhere as refineries get repaired. Fuel tanks blowing up make great social media but they're also low tech replacements.. Oil will move further east to refineries in Siberia, others to neighboring countries like Belarus, Kazakhstan, Turkey, to Hungary, Slovakia, India and China. Belarus itself has two oil refineries that might be supplying to Europe. The Russian oil network can be described exactly as it is, a complex arterial network. When some parts get clogged, the fluid moves elsewhere.

It appears the Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine got Oreshniked. A bunch of other places that include the Artyom enterprise, the Kyiv Armor Plant, and Spetsoboronmash. From NASA fire detection satellites.

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Putin is under heavy pressure from the hardliners. He's like the cork now on a bottle under extreme internal pressure.

From outside of the AFU headquarters. Correct that to former headquarters.

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