PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
1. You said it's the best deal that satisfies both sides; that does not satisfy me as a Chinese and I don't see that as a good deal. If they agree to the 1 country 2 systems, they do so because they are out of options, not because they are enticed. They will just as begrudgingly accept rule by Fujian province.

2. Hanjian activity and thought need to be disrupted. Surgery is more disruptive than a cast but it solves problems that a cast cannot.
IDK, You are correct in the case that US is pushing CIA Backed Taiwan indepentists and other countries politicians stooges as proxies for a regional conflict with China with the intention destabilizing the entire region. If the situation reach that point China would had no other option than going full force against these stooges. In that case Taiwan as the battlefield is likely to be decimated with no hope to ever recover. That is disruptive.
The other scenario is a shift on the support in the Island to put an end to the civil war in negotiated way toward some sort permanent unification. Lot US stooges and other delusional stooges don't like the idea, their goal is a proxy war, but the reality of a protracted conflict will get clearer by the day.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
IDK, You are correct in the case that US is pushing CIA Backed Taiwan indepentists and other countries politicians stooges as proxies for a regional conflict with China with the intention destabilizing the entire region. If the situation reach that point China would had no other option than going full force against these stooges. In that case Taiwan as the battlefield is likely to be decimated with no hope to ever recover. That is disruptive.
The other scenario is a shift on the support in the Island to put an end to the civil war in negotiated way toward some sort permanent unification. Lot US stooges and other delusional stooges don't like the idea, their goal is a proxy war, but the reality of a protracted conflict will get clearer by the day.
And why should we care?
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
One country Two systems. Taiwan will manage its own internal affairs, economics, currency and so on and even had some representation outside. Is the best deal that satisfy both sides, the alternatives is worsts, much much worsts.
The most common way this topic is discussed in China seems to be 1C2S is contingent on the manner of reunification. If it was done under peaceful reunification then fine, 1C2S can be applied to Taiwan and it serves as one of the condition to sweaten peaceful reunification. On the other hand if reunification is done with arms then its 1C1S.

Yes 1C2S as implemented in Hong Kong had problems, but those problems have been rectified and the lesson learnt means the same problem is less likely to reoccure in Taiwan. I don't think there's a need to be too pessimistic about it.
 

lcloo

Major
The most common way this topic is discussed in China seems to be 1C2S is contingent on the manner of reunification. If it was done under peaceful reunification then fine, 1C2S can be applied to Taiwan and it serves as one of the condition to sweaten peaceful reunification. On the other hand if reunification is done with arms then its 1C1S.

Yes 1C2S as implemented in Hong Kong had problems, but those problems have been rectified and the lesson learnt means the same problem is less likely to reoccure in Taiwan. I don't think there's a need to be too pessimistic about it.
Learning from Hong Kong experience, education must be controlled by the central government to prevent foreign teacher infiltrations and anti-national curriculums in schools which was a main factor influencing Hong Kong students.

Another sector is media like TV, newspaper and Internet also need to be controlled.
 

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
And why should we care?
Ironically China seems to care more than the West do, for stooges they see the DPP are just useful idiots. China had the firepower to set the Island of fire for almost 2 decades and even before the Iranian war everyone knew how vulnerable US military bases are, the Iranian war just confirmed what a lot people in China knew. Has China had been more impatient they would had set the entire Island on fire.
.
My guess is that China top brass had their own calculus when and how they will do things, I can just estimate. My guess if they know stooges plan to separate and use that Island proxy my guess will be better to govern an island in ruins than allow that threat to happen, If not they will continue to increase the pressure until a deal that respect China sovereign territorial integrity is achieved. But stooges don't want that.
 

supersnoop

Colonel
Registered Member
Learning from Hong Kong experience, education must be controlled by the central government to prevent foreign teacher infiltrations and anti-national curriculums in schools which was a main factor influencing Hong Kong students.

Another sector is media like TV, newspaper and Internet also need to be controlled.
From previous discussions, the only reason why the pitfalls of 1C2S came to a head was because of the power imbalance that existed between HK and the mainland. It was a small city, but was the strongest economic engine in China at the time. SZ as a tech powerhouse was built on a foundation that HK laid.

In addition, PRC made 2 major errors in governance.
1. Central government was overconfident that HK local government could solve the national security law issue on its own.

Although western media likes to lie and say “China changed the ‘deal’”, the reality is that the Basic Law always established the National Security Law as a requirement. This messaging is showing how western agencies exploited this weakness. Macau passed their NSL without incident within a few years of reunification.

2. Central government did not act fast enough to rein in bad actors as you pointed out.

As I have mentioned before, there is no power imbalance with Taiwan. Semiconductors are not important enough to move the needle, if anything Taiwan’s semi industry would benefit far more from peaceful reunification with mainland customers no longer blocked by the DPP/US. Taiwan’s decrepit power infrastructure could be renovated and restored with new Nuclear tech and clean electricity tech from the mainland without DPP barriers, unlocking previously unrealized economic benefits.

The central government should have learned from their previous mistakes, otherwise it’s their own failure. IMO, if the 1C2S option is available, then it is totally workable without repeating the HK mistakes.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Ironically China seems to care more than the West do, for stooges they see the DPP are just useful idiots. China had the firepower to set the Island of fire for almost 2 decades and even before the Iranian war everyone knew how vulnerable US military bases are, the Iranian war just confirmed what a lot people in China knew. Has China had been more impatient they would had set the entire Island on fire.
.
My guess is that China top brass had their own calculus when and how they will do things, I can just estimate. My guess if they know stooges plan to separate and use that Island proxy my guess will be better to govern an island in ruins than allow that threat to happen, If not they will continue to increase the pressure until a deal that respect China sovereign territorial integrity is achieved. But stooges don't want that.
No, Chinese leadership is waiting for nuclear parity. They know the US is willing to use nukes if they think they can get away with it.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

  • The United States should consider nuclear first use if conventional forces cannot stop a Chinese invasion force from reaching Taiwan.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Deterrence of Chinese conventional aggression against Taiwan requires more than conventional deterrence alone. It also requires intrawar deterrence of PRC limited nuclear escalation, and it may, under some circumstances, require a credible threat to use nuclear weapons first to counter Chinese conventional superiority.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
The Taiwan Island is no longer the real aim of the Chinese leadership anymore. The true aim is to eliminate all hostile forces in the Western Pacific region in order to keep the prosperous and populous coastal region from being threatened, and that requires a hot war. Reunification is just an excuse.
 

Dante80

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Taiwan Island is no longer the real aim of the Chinese leadership anymore. The true aim is to eliminate all hostile forces in the Western Pacific region in order to keep the prosperous and populous coastal region from being threatened, and that requires a hot war. Reunification is just an excuse.
No, the CPC is not aiming for a hot war in the Western Pacific, while using Taiwan as an excuse.

And thank god for that.
 
Top