The War in the Ukraine

anzha

Captain
Registered Member
That really depends on the definition of Ukraine defeat.

The Russians may be able to finish the conquest of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions. They might be able to grab bits here and there otherwise, but unless there is some sort of major shift on the battlefield, they are near their maximal territorial gains. It has been 4 years. The wars has become a grind favoring the defenders. it's little better than a high tech, drone filled First World War. It would take some major shifts in logistics and technology before the Ukrainians would collapse or the Russians could advance at any rate faster than a snail's crawl.

For the Ukrainians, ditto, but if an actually supportive American regime were to come into power in 2028, then there is a modest chance they could start advancing significantly. A very modest chance.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Seriously, it doesn’t seem Russia can defeat Ukraine as Ukraine has already adapted very well to this war, but neither can Ukraine retake back their piece of land already lost to Russia.
Big countries have many more chances than small ones. All the defeats of large countries are temporary, as are the victories of small countries. The only way to truly defeat a large country is to carve it up into smaller countries because being a small country is a default defeated position.
So I think both sides need to come to table and negotiate some sort of end to this useless war no?
No, it's not useless at all; it's extremely useful in shaping the new world order! It serves great value to cause divide between the US and EU and to continue to drain European resources so that they cannot effectively join the US again the rising dragon.
 
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Michael90

Senior Member
Registered Member
Big countries have many more chances than small ones. All the defeats of large countries are temporary, as are the victories of small countries. The only way to truly defeat a large country is to carve it up into smaller countries because being a small country is a default defeated position.
Using that logic,Iran is defeated on the long term then and the US is victorious on the long term. lol
Anyway , I don’t think it’s always the case , but yeah I agree with your point actually
 

Michael90

Senior Member
Registered Member
No, it's not useless at all; it's extremely useful in shaping the new world order! It serves great value to cause divide between the US and EU and to continue to drain European resources so that they cannot effectively join the US again the rising dragon
I’m not talking about being useless for other powers. In fat the biggest winners of this war are those powers who are not involved per se. Like India, China, and even US to some extent . The losers (and the reason I call it useless from their perspective) is the two main parties involved I.e Russia and Ukraine . The loses on both sides are massive in all aspects one can think of , in fact in manpower alone Ukraine is trying to draft any available citizen they can find, Russia has drawn from much of their army to the point they have been releasing prisoners and pushing them on the front line for death and they have even called on help from North Korean troops and they are clandestinely /illegally fooling poor African countries to send their people to Russia where many are unaware it’s to join the war (traffickers lie to them that it’s for a job . lol) it has gotten so bad that some African countries are taking the unprecedented step of calling out Russo on this publicly (something that was unthinkable years ago). In fact all this itself is a humiliation itself for Russia to be honest. It shows they are far less capable than many imagined . If you had told me or anybody just 5 years ago that Russia will struggle to defeat Ukraine in a conventional war , I’m sure nobody will have believed . Don’t forget that even many reputed western military organizations constantly put Russia as the world second most capable/powerful military (ahead of even China ) after the US. lol

Anyway , I think both sides should sit down and make a deal. Neither side can achieve a decisive victory.
 

muddie

Junior Member
The Russians may be able to finish the conquest of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions. They might be able to grab bits here and there otherwise, but unless there is some sort of major shift on the battlefield, they are near their maximal territorial gains. It has been 4 years. The wars has become a grind favoring the defenders. it's little better than a high tech, drone filled First World War. It would take some major shifts in logistics and technology before the Ukrainians would collapse or the Russians could advance at any rate faster than a snail's crawl.

For the Ukrainians, ditto, but if an actually supportive American regime were to come into power in 2028, then there is a modest chance they could start advancing significantly. A very modest chance.
You're basically describing attritional warfare. North Vietnam barely captured any territory until South Vietnam collapsed, and essentially captured the whole country overnight.

Ukraine is a failed state at this point and only being propped up by external support. That support won't last forever, especially if US is now busy elsewhere. The war ends when external support ends. When the dust settles and propaganda fades, I truly believe the world will be shocked by the real number of casualties on the Ukrainian side, that number is going to be astronomical.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Using that logic,Iran is defeated on the long term then and the US is victorious on the long term. lol
Ahhhhhh touche, except that you forget the big picture. This isn't about Iran; in a world of just USA and Iran, Iran can only fold (although in such a world, the US is unlikely to be interested in fighting Iran since its dominance is unchallenged). But China is a bigger player waiting to eat America's lunch. Therefore, there is no long term for the US and to win, Iran only needs to drain American resources until China can finish the job. After China surpasses the US, it's going to be drowning in China's wake, no longer bullying other countries. America doesn't have the stamina for this fight; it needed Iran to fold and offer terms quickly without draining American resources and it sure as hell did not get that.
Anyway , I don’t think it’s always the case , but yeah I agree with your point actually
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I’m not talking about being useless for other powers. In fat the biggest winners of this war are those powers who are not involved per se. Like India, China, and even US to some extent . The losers (and the reason I call it useless from their perspective) is the two main parties involved I.e Russia and Ukraine . The loses on both sides are massive in all aspects one can think of , in fact in manpower alone Ukraine is trying to draft any available citizen they can find, Russia has drawn from much of their army to the point they have been releasing prisoners and pushing them on the front line for death and they have even called on help from North Korean troops and they are clandestinely /illegally fooling poor African countries to send their people to Russia where many are unaware it’s to join the war (traffickers lie to them that it’s for a job . lol) it has gotten so bad that some African countries are taking the unprecedented step of calling out Russo on this publicly (something that was unthinkable years ago). In fact all this itself is a humiliation itself for Russia to be honest. It shows they are far less capable than many imagined . If you had told me or anybody just 5 years ago that Russia will struggle to defeat Ukraine in a conventional war , I’m sure nobody will have believed . Don’t forget that even many reputed western military organizations constantly put Russia as the world second most capable/powerful military (ahead of even China ) after the US. lol
First of all, you have the order of things confused. Russia first sends its prisoners, and foreign mercenaries before using its core power. Those are expendable. You mean to tell me that if you were in charge, you'd let your main army get decimated before sending cannon fodder??

Secondly, I was not talking about being useless for other powers. The fact that it's very useful for China means that it's very useful for Russia. Russia is going to have a shit time in a world that is USA/EU centric. It is going to have a much better time in a Sino-centric world. China will never harm Russia unless attacked first but all day all night, NATO thinks about how to harm Russia. So, in pulling the EU down from the fight and forcing the US to face China alone, Russia is helping its own future.
Anyway , I think both sides should sit down and make a deal. Neither side can achieve a decisive victory.
Nah, drag it out. When the EU is exhausted and the US has piped down knowing that it is outmatched by China, Russia can unleash what it held in reserve for NATO unto Ukraine and win. If not, I think Xi can lend a hand. After all, Putin has lent us plenty.
 
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Soldier30

Captain
Registered Member
The video shows the downing of a Ukrainian Hornet UAV, the destruction of a Baba Yaga drone, and an attack by two Yolka interceptor drones on a Ukrainian UAV. The video concludes with the downing of a Ukrainian fixed-wing UAV in the Kherson region and a serviceman's impressions of using a Yolka interceptor drone.

 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Stryker gets taken out by Lancet and Vandal drones in the Dnepropetrovsk region.


Wheeled APCs has advantage over tracked vehicles being less noisy and allows for more stealth before troop disembarkation, despite being still far from perfect. Vehicles will remain to suffer from drone hyper surveillance, unless you can take advantage via bad weather, vegetation, and coordination with your own drone and fire strike teams.
 
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