2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

Serb

Senior Member
Registered Member
Wellll, in an absolute sense, it's true. Iran has suffered horrible damage to its civilian infrastructure and America's only losing its middle-eastern military assets so it can be easy to justify that the US is winning because it's dealing more damage than its taking.

BUTTTT to say that the US is winning would be in the same vein as saying that getting 2 of your fingers torn off by a crab while you take 1 of his legs for dinner is winning just because the crab has suffered a larger injury. In reality, that would probably be a dinner you have nightmares about and regret for the rest of your life.

The question was who was winning, not who was doing more visible damage.

Americans are too uninformed and too stupid to understand that distinction, which is why they keep giving the wrong answer.

It is like a fat guy beating on a skinnier guy, failing to knock him out, and then collapsing from exhaustion before the fight is over.

Everything Iran is doing now is moving the situation closer to breaking America itself as a state.

And it does not look like the US can do enough damage to a country this large and durable before the pressure starts snapping back and tearing through its own economy, politics, and society.

The Iranian state still functions. The street energy there is against the US and Israel.

In America, millions are already out protesting against the war.

And that is before even 10 percent of the real economic and social fallout has arrived inside the US. The harder part is still ahead.

People talk about this like it is just about destruction totals, but war does not work that way. Strategy and politics are the war effort.

This is not a shooter game where the winner is whoever racks up the bigger body count.

The US lost in Vietnam, Iraq, against the Taliban, and against the Houthis in strategic terms, because war is about political outcome, not just about who can blow up more things.

Why lose to Iran now? Because the path forward clearly leads to only two outcomes: surrender or collapse.

And honestly, this quagmire was so deep that you could already see that within days of the war starting.

And in those earlier cases, the US mostly just burned trillions and paid the opportunity cost.

In Iran’s case, when the damage fully settles, the US will probably lose everything.
 

Puss in Boots

Junior Member
Registered Member
Wellll, in an absolute sense, it's true. Iran has suffered horrible damage to its civilian infrastructure and America's only losing its middle-eastern military assets so it can be easy to justify that the US is winning because it's dealing more damage than its taking.

BUTTTT to say that the US is winning would be in the same vein as saying that getting 2 of your fingers torn off by a crab while you take 1 of his legs for dinner is winning just because the crab has suffered a larger injury. In reality, that would probably be a dinner you have nightmares about and regret for the rest of your life.
The military assets the United States has lost in the Middle East will have a significant negative impact on its future international influence.

In my view, the United States established its global hegemony through the Gulf War, and this war with Iran may be a sign of its comprehensive decline in global dominance. The United States has not only lost two fingers; the wound is infected and oozing pus. Without timely amputation, sepsis could be fatal.
 

mack8

Senior Member
As Russia and Ukraine are taken as examples from various angles, i think it's pretty clear that Ukraine would have long been finished without massive western support. Iran realistically can't keep going the way it is for long unless at least a measure of support is provided to it, the numbers are just too much stacked against it, they don't have an unlimited number of drones and missiles.

Now the Epstein coalition is exactly where Russia and China would/should want it, facing an attritional quagmire that could bleed them dry on several fronts, be it weapons, personnel, monetary etc. But unless China and Russia won't meaningfully help Iran, and i don't mean sat images or whatever, but tangible help like SAMs, various missiles, drones and especially components for, and/or get DPRK involved too for same, they will miss this golden opportunity. So the current apparent flacidity of Russia and China about assistance to Iran is highly exasperating.
 

Serb

Senior Member
Registered Member
The military assets the United States has lost in the Middle East will have a significant negative impact on its future international influence.

In my view, the United States established its global hegemony through the Gulf War, and this war with Iran may be a sign of its comprehensive decline in global dominance. The United States has not only lost two fingers; the wound is infected and oozing pus. Without timely amputation, sepsis could be fatal.

Destroying the petrodollar for the US is like wiping out China’s entire advanced manufacturing infrastructure overnight.
 

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
Man, the wake-up call is going to be hard if they are still this much in denial or they are just polling boomers


It is very similar to any previous wars that US had fought. US could killed alot of people but they failed to win the political battle and main objectives. Iran had lost many infrastructures in major cities but with the yuan collected at SOH toll, they are able to rebuild all from scratch in 7-10 years.

Iran needs to build a strong unhackable Firewall network like the one China is using. Every military complex has to be built underground.

Mideast only has 200-300 patriot missiles left.
 

solarz

Brigadier
One thing that is still confusing me - before this war heavy Mossad subfiltration of IRGC was practically an assumed condition, but as time has passed we are begging the question of how they have turned out to be so ludicrously underprepared and surprised by IR capabilities/resilience. Had the IRGC successfuly decentralised their command structure in response much earlier than anticipated? Was the degree of infiltration (this is becoming increasingly likely) less than expected?

I'm guessing somewhere along the information train of Iranian moles to US/Israeli decision makers, only information that fit with their preconceived narrative was passed along. In other words, they only heard what they wanted to hear.
 

nemo

Junior Member
That's one hell of an obviously stupid mistake that Israel made. Spend decades infiltrating the Iranian elite, who can use their influence to cuck Iran. Then, kill all of them so new uncorrupted young guns take up the mantel and make Iran stand strong in the most crucial time of war. I can't imagine how they made this miscalculation. Did they just get carried away with it and start killing everything they could kill to try to induce a fear factor?

Just to be devil's advocate, could this be intentional? At least a portion of the deep state must be angry at the stranglehold a foreign entity (Israel) on the US government. The sense of moral superiority and political correctness has been severely damaged by Gaza. It must be fairly easy to let Israel manipulate Trump into war with Iran, difficulty of which any competent national security professional must forsee. Now the war effort is not going well, it is probably possible to argue abandoment of Israel by the virtue of necessity. Then by blowing open Israeli operations in US like Epstein case, it is possible to manipulate popular opinion against Israel. AIPAC is then able to be neutered. The status of the *Juice* will then return to the status before WW-2 -- dispised moneyed minority who must pay for protection, rather than a master who direct the policy. This might be worth losing a war to the Deep State.
 
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_killuminati_

Captain
Registered Member
Just to be devil's advocate, could this be intentional? At least a portion of the deep state must be angry at the stranglehold a foreign entity (Israel) on the US government. The sense of moral superiority and political correctness has been severely damaged by Gaza. It must be fairly easy to let Israel manipulate Trump into war with Iran, difficulty of which any competent national security professional must forsee. Now the war effort is not going well, it is probably possible to argue abandoment of Israel by the virtue of necessity. Then by blowing open Israeli operations in US like Epstein case, it is possible to manipulate popular opinion against Israel. AIPAC is then able to be neutered. The status of the Jews will then return to the status before WW-2 -- dispised moneyed minority who must pay for protection, rather than a master who direct the policy. This might be worth losing a war to the Deep State.
US deepstate are the founders of Israel - the Juice bankers.
 

nemo

Junior Member
US deepstate are the founders of Israel - the Juice bankers.
Before WW-2 definitely was not. Besides, Deep State commonly refer to non-elected portion of the government that was NOT suppose to set the policies. Being non-elected means they are less influenced by usual overt devices such as campaign contribution. As such, Christian fundamentalist such as evangelicals has much more to say on this than *Juice* interests.
 

TK3600

Colonel
Registered Member
Before WW-2 definitely was not. Besides, Deep State commonly refer to non-elected portion of the government that was NOT suppose to set the policies. Being non-elected means they are less influenced by usual overt devices such as campaign contribution. As such, Christian fundamentalist such as evangelicals has much more to say on this than *Juice* interests.
At a grassroot level no, but at elite level juice were very powerful in elite level. Less than today, but still in charge.

Pre WWII US:

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