2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

[_killuminati_]

^^ @plawolf US is learning now that it doesn't wield the influence it did even just 20 years ago. Allies are no longer willing to be pushed around, alternatives are existent, and overall power has been reduced.

More precisely on the current scenario, it appears that both the internal uprising and the Kurdish incursion were supposed to be the crucial preliminary steps before proceeding into open conflict. Epstein coalition failed in both, yet proceeded with the conflict anyway. Next phase of strategy required local Arab allies to join the fight. That also failed.

At this point, US should be reconsidering it's efforts and backing out but pride is astronomical, diplomacy has always been shit, and Anglo-Saxon barbarian genes are firing hard. Active military personnel seem hesitant to enter the battlefield - clogging toilets and doing whatever they can to delay deployment on field.

On the other hand, you have these psychopathic psuedo-gypsies who've never run a country before in their history, operating as a colony, who are breaking every bridge to deescalation and diplomacy, attempting to prolong the conflict, and holding America on a leash.

This is a military disaster waiting to happen.

Ever since the Iranian revolution and the overthrow of the monarchy, Iran's stance on monarchy has been that it is corrupt and fundamentally un-Islamic. The Saudis had well-grounded fears that the revolution could spill over its borders, and topple their monarchy as well.

Monarchies are forbidden in Islam and that fear has been around since the Ummayad era. Current Irani setup doesn't appear much different either - children inheriting titles from parents. Islamic doctrine allows only one system, the type nobody really cares to implement, and the closest thing to it today, believe it or not, is the modern Chinese system.

 

[_killuminati_]

Wahhabis which rule SA consider Shias heretics/idolatrous non-muslims (most Sunnis do) then there was the 1987 Mecca clash between Saudis and Iranian Shia pilgrims which saw >400 deaths.

That is categorically false because the Saudi Wahhabis allow Shia to enter Mecca for pilgrimage which is forbidden to non-Muslims and the really heretic sects like Ahmadis.

 

[Maz]

That is categorically false because the Saudi Wahhabis allow Shia to enter Mecca for pilgrimage which is forbidden to non-Muslims and the really heretic sects like Ahmadis.

They allow it for political and economical reasons.

Doesn't change the fact wahhabism is a puritanical branch which considers the veneration of shrines (a fundamental part of Shia theology) as a violation of Tawhid (the oneness of God). Their stance is rooted in the teachings of Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab and Ibn Taymiyyah. And Saudi Arabia has spent in excess of $100 billion in promoting this branch so obviously there will be clash with shia proxies and Iran.

 

[mattymat111]

They allow it for political and economical reasons.

Doesn't change the fact wahhabism is a puritanical branch which considers the veneration of shrines (a fundamental part of Shia theology) as a violation of Tawhid (the oneness of God). Their stance is rooted in the teachings of Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab and Ibn Taymiyyah. And Saudi Arabia has spent in excess of $100 billion in promoting this branch so obviously there will be clash with shia proxies and Iran.

Nonsense. Shias has been doing the Hajj for almost 14 hundred years non-stop - which predates wahhabism by a millennia. BTW, shias and sunnis were fine with each other before the islamic revolution in Iran but immediately after that suddenly by policy, shias are murtid and wajib ul qatl? There are tons of archival videos in which the wahabis, especially the current ruling Saudi king and other princes were dancing with swords to greet the shah of Iran in Arabia. There are also tons of archival video of the shia shah of Iran meeting with almost all other arab/muslim leaders with love and veneration !

Veneration of saints is not limited to shias ! ... lots of other sunni sects do it - ever visited Moinuddin Chistis grave or Khwaja Nizauddin auliyas in India? or Jalaluddin Rumis grave in Konya?

Visting graves is encouraged in Islam to remember the temporary nature of this life and also to look forward to the next hereafter life to come. Making dua for the deceased is part of Islam for sawab e jaariya.

If the wahhabis cannot understand the difference between the love and visiting the grave and making dua for the deceased, then they are misguided not the others.

Every muslim dynasty since the prophet protected the symbols of the prophet, and his companions, and his family for 1200 years but wahabis destroyed almost 90% of them in the last 100 years !

The prophet himself said the following and the "literalist" wahabis are fulfilling it !....;

"Nothing remains of Islam except its name."
"Nothing remains of the Quran except its script/words."
"Their mosques will be decorated/furnished, but devoid of guidance."
"Their scholars will be the worst people under the heavens; strife (fitna) will come from them and return to them."

 

[enroger]

What is the long term security arrangement of GCC going to look like after this war? If US is kicked out of the region and China is reluctant to play protector for the middle eastern royalties?

I'm thinking maybe Pakistan can play the role of protector: Pakistan provide the body, GCC provide the money, China provide the weapon, everyone get what they want (except US and Israel but they can sulk). I assume Iran would be accepting of such an arrangement as well.

 

[supersnoop]

I miss those NAFO guys talking about "stupid Ruzzia" losing those A-50s to incompetence and being too corrupt to build hardened aircraft shelters.

Remember that guy @SolarWarden who used to only post in the Ukraine thread about the invincibility of the Patriot?

One thing is for sure though, Iran has seemingly made western systems look far more vulnerable than Russia has. Perhaps it's because it has been preparing for this forever. Shaheed/Geran in Ukraine was already a moment, but knocking out multiple KC-135 and E-3 is a heavy blow. The dismantling of THAAD in SK, Chinese sanctions couldn't do it.

What's interesting is that the LUCAS drone cannot be used to the same effect. Despite the claim of being Low Cost at $35 - $50K vs. at least million+ for a Tomahawk. Is it lack of scale? Lack of targeting data? Lack of tactical experience?

 

[sheogorath]

Man, the wake-up call is going to be hard if they are still this much in denial or they are just polling boomers

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2038717394625986663

 

[mattymat111]

Understanding Irans wars strategy ....

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

What is the long term security arrangement of GCC going to look like after this war? If US is kicked out of the region and China is reluctant to play protector for the middle eastern royalties?

I'm thinking maybe Pakistan can play the role of protector: Pakistan provide the body, GCC provide the money, China provide the weapon, everyone get what they want (except US and Israel but they can sulk). I assume Iran would be accepting of such an arrangement as well.

Maybe more of a sharing between Iran and Pakistan in the GCC. Iran will likely keep the tax on Hormuz permanent to rebuild, now that it has proven that nobody can do anything about them. On the other hand it will be a tax low enough to not incentivize building pipelines around the Straits. Their current $2 million per ship, paid by the shipper, is quite reasonable. An imperceptible amount of money for the global economy.

 

[Serb]

Thoughts?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2039023367488221536

Here is how the toll works in practice. Every vessel must contact an IRGC-linked intermediary and submit full documentation: IMO number, ownership chain, cargo manifest, crew list, destination. The IRGC Navy’s Hormozgan Command runs multi-layer vetting: sanctions screening, cargo alignment, geopolitical assessment. If approved, the vessel receives a clearance code and routing instructions for a single controlled corridor through the five-nautical-mile gap between Qeshm and Larak islands. On approach, VHF radio verifies the code. An IRGC pilot boat escorts the ship through under visual inspection. AIS transponders go dark on entry. Payment is settled post-clearance through the intermediary. Two million dollars. In yuan.

Keep in mind that Iran's financial sector is still under sanctions.

So they can't possibly operate with the dollar system too heavily.

So logic checks in. On the other hand, what does this mean?

It means the end of the petrodollar and the effective establishment of the petroyuan.

Third countries that want to have oil have to pay Iran in yuan.

So, they would need to have more of it. So they de-dollarize their trade.

They sell their UST holdings and instead settle holdings in gold.

It's not an accident that China has been building up SGE so much recently.

Either you get a diplomatic passage, or you pay the toll.

The EU first has to lift the sanctions to even be able to pay it.

The point is that with Hormuz, there goes the petrodollar.

It's much deeper than "wE DoNt NeEd ThE OiL MaN. Chyyyna!"

And once something like this is gone, it's hard to reverse.

Same as for the bases. How and why would they be "rebuilt"?

I think this will be studied as the biggest self-own in history later.

The more this war continues, the less of the US lifespan remains.