PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

GulfLander

Brigadier
Registered Member
I don't think you should promote disinformation like this. Visiting the Mainland is not illegal for Cheng. Negotiating political agreements on the other hand is prohibited. But she could absolutely be negotiate business deals.
the video link allegedly shows the official guy talking about possible consequences of the alleged visit. the report is about the statement of the guy. the quoted line is google translated of the report caption.
 
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Heresy

Junior Member
Registered Member
the video link allegedly shows the official guy talking about possible consequences of the alleged visit. the report is about the statement of the guy. the quoted line is google translated of the report caption.

Imprisonment is only a possible consequence for Cheng if she's stupid and breaks Taiwanese law on this OR the DPP is stupid and ignores Taiwanese law and imprisons her anyways.
 

Zhejiang

Junior Member
Registered Member
the video link allegedly shows the official guy talking about possible consequences of the alleged visit. the report is about the statement of the guy. the quoted line is google translated of the report caption.
It’s unlikely she would be imprisoned, if the DPP did that they would lose more support and they are currently struggling with support
 

supersnoop

Colonel
Registered Member
Imprisonment is only a possible consequence for Cheng if she's stupid and breaks Taiwanese law on this OR the DPP is stupid and ignores Taiwanese law and imprisons her anyways.
They won't actually imprison her, but it is very typical for DPP to threaten high profile support of so-called "United Front" work

Ouyang Nana and Angela Chang from Taiwan were threatened with fines after performing at a National Day Gala on the mainland
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Threatening to take away pensions from Veterans who support China
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China Times TV Channel CTi not allowed to broadcast traditionally in Taiwan
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Threatening businesspeople
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Granted that some of these elements are pretty inflammatory, for example Ouyang tweeted images of Joint-Sword exercises and said something like "THERE IS ONLY ONE CHINA". CTi is like Fox News-like on how great (mainland) China is, routinely praising the power of the PLA and how Taiwan cannot resist. I can get where they are coming from, but in general just pointing out this is what DPP does.

They have in fact deported some mainland-origin spouses of Taiwanese in a fairly recent case for making pro unification statements
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siegecrossbow

Field Marshall
Staff member
Super Moderator
They won't actually imprison her, but it is very typical for DPP to threaten high profile support of so-called "United Front" work

Ouyang Nana and Angela Chang from Taiwan were threatened with fines after performing at a National Day Gala on the mainland
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Threatening to take away pensions from Veterans who support China
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China Times TV Channel CTi not allowed to broadcast traditionally in Taiwan
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Threatening businesspeople
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Granted that some of these elements are pretty inflammatory, for example Ouyang tweeted images of Joint-Sword exercises and said something like "THERE IS ONLY ONE CHINA". CTi is like Fox News-like on how great (mainland) China is, routinely praising the power of the PLA and how Taiwan cannot resist. I can get where they are coming from, but in general just pointing out this is what DPP does.

They have in fact deported some mainland-origin spouses of Taiwanese in a fairly recent case for making pro unification statements
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Won’t stop things like this from happening. Any HK/WW pop star worth their salt knows which side their bread is buttered.
 

Heresy

Junior Member
Registered Member
They won't actually imprison her, but it is very typical for DPP to threaten high profile support of so-called "United Front" work

Ouyang Nana and Angela Chang from Taiwan were threatened with fines after performing at a National Day Gala on the mainland
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Threatening to take away pensions from Veterans who support China
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China Times TV Channel CTi not allowed to broadcast traditionally in Taiwan
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Threatening businesspeople
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Granted that some of these elements are pretty inflammatory, for example Ouyang tweeted images of Joint-Sword exercises and said something like "THERE IS ONLY ONE CHINA". CTi is like Fox News-like on how great (mainland) China is, routinely praising the power of the PLA and how Taiwan cannot resist. I can get where they are coming from, but in general just pointing out this is what DPP does.

They have in fact deported some mainland-origin spouses of Taiwanese in a fairly recent case for making pro unification statements
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Censorship, taking away money or levying fines or even deportation are one thing. Imprisonment is quite a different matter. Not that I approve of what the DPP is doing; it's putting lie to the idea of Taiwan being a "liberal democracy", but at this point, I think it's pretty clear that geopolitical lines are being drawn and all nations, regardless of their political system, are going to enact the same sort of policies to ensure their citizens toe the line as much as feasible.

All this to say, these actions by the DPP are unsurprising. The only way this will change is if the the KMT suddenly manage to not be clown-shoes incompetent in elections, the DPP do something outrageously stupid, or Wanwanese in key Green areas of Taiwan suddenly come to their senses and decide to choose economic growth rather than "sovereignty". Less likely is a PHL-116 barrage landing on their heads, and while this may be particularly cathartic to me, it's probably not wise of Zhongnanhai to attempt to change facts on the ground in such a way until all other avenues are exhausted.
 

Wrought

Captain
Registered Member
One wonders which party such people are voting for.

Three years ago, Yeh decided to open a bank account in Singapore and move one-fifth of his wealth overseas. Then he applied for citizenship in Turkey, and nine months later obtained secondary passports for himself and his wife. If Taiwan came under attack, he reasoned, he would be able to access emergency funds and use his Turkish papers to travel freely. “The likelihood of this is low. But if it does happen then the losses would be huge, so I feel like I should have a plan B,” said Yeh, who works in finance in Taipei.

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and international politics is one reason why more Taiwanese people are purchasing property in Thailand, said Edward Lai, a Taiwanese real estate agent working in Bangkok. He said his company has been on a hiring spree to keep up with the influx of inquiries, 70% of which are from Taiwanese worried about geopolitics, he estimates.

However, Mark Lin, manager at another immigration consultancy Luby, said that while inquiries have doubled over the past two years on geopolitical worries, leaving during a conflict wouldn’t be easy. “People want to get a quick passport, in case something happens,” he said. “But if something were to happen, you can’t even get on a plane and move out, right? You have to have some sort of military assistance.”

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