2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

[mister unknown]

Who is the first guy?

Wang Qishan.

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[iewgnem]

everyone is saying US & Israel are trying to assassinate the new Iranian leader, with so many traitors inside Iran, can the new leader survive the assassination? One bomb, the new leader is gone, News already saying he was hunted during a US attack...

Its been two weeks and you still haven't put one and one together?

USIS had no idea Iran would respond the way they did, they had no idea Iran would attack the Gulf countries and bases, had no idea about Iran's contingency plan for doing so that, if its really a distributed operation, required literally everyone in IRGC to know. They also has no idea how many missiles Iran has, no idea where the missiles are, no idea how deep the tunnels are, no idea Iran would target their radars, etc, etc.

The only intel USIS had seem to be Khamenei was living at his house.

I mean, does it feel like there's actually that many traitors inside Iran?

 

[sheogorath]

The elephant in the room is still the nuclear issue. US can tolerate Iran as they did for the last 50 years but I don't think nukes would be tolerated. Israel could even first strike Iran without US if push come to shove.

If Israel and the US lose the war, chances are they will be in such a weakened position they cant demand much. Also compounded by the fact that they started the war in the first place.

 

[Mmmeeeto]

"B-But Iran should have moved closer to Russia and the PRC!?"

Yeah, exchanging western ZOG bots for eastern ZOG bots definitely would make a huge difference.
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Ultimately Iran is all on it's own against Ivdea and it's vassals, namely the US and Gulf States.

Wang Yi also faced the wall, it's weird how they insist on doing this for every high profile visit

 

[EmoBirb]

A missile, on the other hand, usually end up hitting somewhere near the target's tail, just saying.

Not really. You're thinking about IR guided missiles hitting fighter jets. Realistically a radar guided SAM would hit the aircraft from the front or below. Not collide with the stabilizer from above and not explode. The damage is rather evidently indicative of a collision. Possibly part of an untimely separation and then having the lower aircraft "cut" the top aircraft, if that ripped open the fuselage or wing, game over.

Missile damage looks different, we've seen footage of what it looks like when the Azerbaijani passenger plane got shot down over Ukraine like 1-2 years ago.

Furthermore, given the intensity of aerial refueling and immense fatigue, accidents have a sharp increase with regards to how likely they are to occure. Quite frankly, it's also just more plausible than the idea of some Iraqi Luke Skywalker striking the death star so to speak. Given what we've seen, if you really want to hold on to the idea of the aircraft being shot at, it would be more likely that it's an accident that occured as part of an unwanted seperation because they aircraft had to conduct evasive maneuvers. But so far there is no evidence for that.

 

[gd47]

This is so much more interesting than it looks, because it's not the nose that sustained damage.

I mean we all know refuelling configuration involve receiver flying behind and below the tanker.
So for top of vertical stabilizer to be hit, the receiver has fly well forward of where it should, basically directly under the tanker, while maintaining close vertical clearance.
And keep in mind these things don't accelerate very fast, at all, it takes quite a bit of deliberate effort and time to advanced until you're directly below the tanker
Or the receiver could have approached the tanker way too fast and yet performed no pitch down as it overshot the tanker, basically violating all approach procedure and don't even have any self preservation instinct

There's a reason this kind of incident has never happened before: it's extremely unlikely.

A missile, on the other hand, usually end up hitting somewhere near the target's tail, just saying.

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Also, if both are KC-130, this is how close they have to be flying relative to each other, minimum, for one to clip the top of the other's vertical stabilizer, yeah.
View attachment 171491

Could be a missile, but wouldn't that leave much more shrapnel/incidental damage, not a relatively clean break?

 

[Mmmeeeto]

Not really. You're thinking about IR guided missiles hitting fighter jets. Realistically a radar guided SAM would hit the aircraft from the front or below. Not collide with the stabilizer from above and not explode. The damage is rather evidently indicative of an explosion. Possibly part of an untimely separation and then having the lower aircraft "cut" the top aircraft, if that ripped open the fuselage or wing, game over.

Missile damage looks different, we've seen footage of what it looks like when the Azerbaijani passenger plane got shot down over Ukraine like 1-2 years ago.

Furthermore, given the intensity of aerial refueling and immense fatigue, accidents have a sharp increase with regards to how lonely they are to occure. Quite frankly, it's also just more plausible than the idea of some Iraqi Luke Skywalker striking the death star so to speak. Given what we've seen, if you really want to hold on to the idea of the aircraft being shot at, it would be more likely that it's an accident that occured as part of an unwanted seperation because they aircraft had to conduct evasive maneuvers. But so far there is no evidence for that.

Well, the IRI (Islamic resistance of Iraq), has taken responsibility for both KC-135 incidents.

But being dubious of their claims is still reasonable ofcourse

 

[Dante80]

That's not in the interest of Iran, perhaps China or Russia, but not Iran. Because this would be the 9/11 scale event that could ultimately galvanize the Americans for another 20 years of war in the middle east.

I'm pretty sure that Iran has already tried to attack Lincoln. And they will probably keep trying.
A US carrier that bombs them is a pretty legit target for the IRGC..

 

[EmoBirb]

Just for reference, this is what it looks like when an airliner type aircraft is hit by SAM. Not only is the entire rear peppered and not just the upper part of the vertical stabilizer ripped clean off, the entire aircraft broke apart. Now can you imagine what such a missile would do to an airliner that's filled to the brim with fuel? Even a near miss would have taken out both jets, not one and only damaging the top of the vertical stabilizer of the other (snd this was, IIRC, just a Buk. Not even a large SAM battery like S300 or S400).

While I get that sometimes we want certain things to be true, I find the mid air collision during refueling the most plausible answer which also lines up with the presented information we got, thus far.

 

[EmoBirb]

I'm pretty sure that Iran has already tried to attack Lincoln. And they will probably keep trying.
A US carrier that bombs them is a pretty legit target for the IRGC..

I adressed this in the other paragraphs you conveniently left out.

Taking the CVN out of the equation by rendering it impossible to conduct it's mission is desirable. To achieve that extensive damage to the flight deck, propulsion or the bridge is enough. Outright sinking it would result in the escalation ladder blowing up.

Furthermore, it should be understood that gunning for the carrier doesn't have to outright hit it to be considered a worthwhile effort. Shooting at it forces the carrier to keep it's distance and take evasive maneuvers, disrupting it's operations.