2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

Will Iran-Israel conflict start again?

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horse

horse

Brigadier
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Randomuser said:
Oil is at 93 right now. All that effort to stabilise oil prices and we are gonna be back at 100 soon.
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Here is an alternative view. The world economy, if we consider the United States, Europe, Japan, are pretty weak.

This war with this oil disruption should push these economies into recession.

If a recession does hit, oil demand goes down. The demand may not be there, putting a cap of further oil prices rises.

We got to wait and see.
 
horse

horse

Brigadier
Registered Member
Moonscape said:
But if they're going to use their reserves at all, this is the time to do it. This is the final battle for American hegemony and the petrodollar, and the hegemon is losing.
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This is a very serious and interesting question.

The gravity of the matter is real, but it is not talking about the war directly and that one mod being deleting all such posts.

My guess is the American Empire is done like dinner except for vassals like Europe and Japan. US Dollar hegemony could actually stick around for a while, gold will probably go up.

The petrodollar system will not be too important anymore. China is the world's biggest oil importer, and Russia and Iran are important suppliers. They are not using dollars. The grain trade with China not using dollars for years now.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
supersnoop said:
If we recall the late 90's/early 00's, there was this idea that you could spam FACs armed with AShMs and annihilate a blue-water navy. The epitome of this was the "Millennium Challenge 2002".

When the PLAN unveiled the 022 in this era, it looked like they were going all in on this kind of strategy. The LCS ships for the USN were designed to combat these threats.

However, both USN and PLAN learned the same thing, small boats are easy pickings for something like aircraft as they lack effective self defense armament and are too small to mount extensive electronics which limits their sensor range. As such, LCS is dead and 022 is doing patrols well away from the Taiwan strait. Clearly the fate of the Iranian Navy is simply confirmation of the conclusion.
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well Iran is a normal country that isn't just waiting to 1v1 the US. They need ships for sea control, patrol, etc because they have to secure their coast for the 47 years they weren't fighting the US.

I mean Taiwan is still using Cold War era gun frigates like the Gearing class but it isn't all that irrational if you note that they still need to do patrols and stuff.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
tankphobia said:
Looking at the Iranian Navy being sunk without really doing much of anything at great expense to Iran, with the rocket force and drone force making a good showing of themselves, I wonder why'd they even bother building boats beyond those suicide speed boats in the first place.

Even in a perfect scenario where Iran initiated hostilities with a fully prepared Navy, what did they really expect those boats to do?
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There is an element of truth to the question, but there is also an element of logical fallacy to that line of bottom-line thinking.

Yes, the Iranian navy turned into really expensive practice targets for the Americans and Israelis in this war, but you can play this exact same scenario by subbing in basically any navy on earth bar the USN and PLAN and essentially arrive at the same outcome. In a one-vs-one war, the PLAN and USN will make practice dummies of every navy other than each other, does that mean no one else should have a navy?

The reality is that the overwhelming majority of navies (and armies and air forces) are not built to fight real wars, and most certainly not real wars against superpowers. Most navies are built for PP, peace and prestige. They are meant to allow states to protect their maritime interests and enforce their claims and rights during peacetime and in limited combat scenarios.

While it is absolutely true that given their geopolitical reality, it was foolish of Iran to pour so much resources into its navy, especially the fleet composition they did, but in the grand scheme of things, it was a relatively minor misstep that didn’t really carry much in the way of painful opportunity costs.
 
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