PRC military aviation export/sales

M

mshrief303

Junior Member
Registered Member
siegecrossbow said:
On serious note the whole point of US denying J-10C sale to Egypt is because they don’t want them to have credible BVR capabilities, let alone one superior to that of the “Chosen Nation”. They likely will not tolerate PL-15 integration with any fighter aircraft, not even MIG-29.
Click to expand...
Absolutely True, nevertheless Egypt should make the jump to China if they want to survive. By the way US also denies long-range Air-to-Surface missiles, the SCALP missile was only introduced to Egypt by france because it's ITAR free unlike StormShadow which is EU version with American components -- and even then I suspect it's in very low quantity that can't be used to sustain war of attrition. and their main Air-to-Surface missile for the rafale is the AASM Hammer with ~80km.

They can use make it work with a russian fighter that already integrated the missile, like Mig-29M for Air-to-Surface missiles, but if russia didn't already do it, russians will side with their Israel and use it for negotiation with US.

The only partner that can help Egypt to be able to win a war is China, and that's only if they payed the cost politically and economically.

And I need to repeat what I said before, US pressured Egypt, but the deal can still happen and they didn't pull out, and Egypt can push it through. So I'm afraid, if they didn't do it quickly, they will enter a war without an Air Force that can compete with any medicore Air force.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

Field Marshall
Staff member
Super Moderator
mshrief303 said:
Absolutely True, nevertheless Egypt should make the jump to China if they want to survive. By the way US also denies long-range Air-to-Surface missiles, the SCALP missile was only introduced to Egypt by france because it's ITAR free unlike StormShadow which is EU version with American components -- and even then I suspect it's in very low quantity that can't be used to sustain war of attrition. and their main Air-to-Surface missile for the rafale is the AASM Hammer with ~80km.

They can use make it work with a russian fighter that already integrated the missile, like Mig-29M for Air-to-Surface missiles, but if russia didn't already do it, russians will side with their Israel and use it for negotiation with US.

The only partner that can help Egypt to be able to win a war is China, and that's only if they payed the cost politically and economically.

And I need to repeat what I said before, US pressured Egypt, but the deal can still happen and they didn't pull out, and Egypt can push it through. So I'm afraid, if they didn't do it quickly, they will enter a war without an Air Force that can compete with any medicore Air force.
Click to expand...
If Egypt does decide to make the leap they need to go for the whole package (EW, AWAC, fighter, and more). J-10C by itself is not going to change the calculus one bit. The aerial combat philosophy also needs to change.

Either way this is not something that can be done within one or two years. This has to be a sustained effort. Best course of action would be sending pilots/technicians to China to familiarize with the equipment and tactics ahead of time to make the onboarding as painless as possible.
 
S

sami_1

New Member
Registered Member
Egypt's reluctance to upgrade its F-16 fighter jets, despite American offers, demonstrates that alternatives already exist. Let's clarify a few points: many years ago, an Egyptian engineer at the Egyptian aircraft factory was discussing with a Lockheed Martin official the possibility of Egypt upgrading its F-16s without the company's authorization. The American informed them that the company itself wouldn't be overly concerned, as publicizing these upgrades could prompt the US administration to take measures preventing the company from selling spare parts to the Egyptian F-16 fleet. Therefore, the Egyptians proceeded with the upgrade programs discreetly. Furthermore, the current US administration is fully aware that Egypt has turned to countries like China for arms and has attempted to dissuade them. However, the Egyptians refused, reaching a very simple agreement to keep the Egyptians silent so as not to encourage other countries to take similar steps and turn to China and other nations for weapons. As long as the Egyptians receive spare parts, the Americans themselves offered the Egyptians the AN/ALQ-254(V)1 Viper Shield, which L3Harris showcased at EDEX-2025 for a price tag of one billion dollars. For the Americans, this is paramount. Now, selling spare parts for Egypt's 200 F-16 fleet allows American companies to earn over half a billion dollars annually from spare parts alone. The Egyptians have adopted a very simple strategy: gradually phasing out their F-16 fleet as it reaches the end of its service life. They have even offered to sell some of the aircraft to African countries. This isn't about pressure or a carrot-and-stick approach. It's not all about pressure and sanctions. Every country allows itself room to maneuver and protect itself, so it doesn't succumb to pressure that undermines its national security or end up like Iran and Turkey, unable to acquire modern fighter jets. Even the Meteor deal wasn't implemented by Egypt; it was used as leverage in negotiations with France during the Indo-Pakistani war to upgrade the batch of Rafale fighters already delivered. This upgrades aimed to increase their maneuverability, enhance their attack capabilities, and include modernizations and improvements, thus delaying the delivery of the aircraft by several months to meet Egyptian demands. The French were in a very weak position. The Russians also offered to produce the SCLAP missile for the Egyptians immediately after a missile landed on Ukrainian territory without exploding. Egypt is developing its own locally through reverse engineering, with Russian support for its integration into Egyptian fighter jets and even Algerian SU-24s. The French, upon learning of this, offered the Egyptians better deals without the usual restrictions, as America will not compensate the French for the money they have been losing. Several days ago, Egypt threatened France that if it did not agree to the Barracuda submarine deal, including technology transfer, Egypt would turn directly to China. Simply put, the market is now a buyer's market, not a seller's. Countries used to shy away from China due to the perceived limitations of its technology in the past, and there are some doubts about the reliability of Chinese aerospace products. I believe there is perhaps something hidden behind this: why is Egypt maintaining and overhauling the WS-10B engine unless Egypt already possesses J-10C aircraft, which completely refutes some theories?

" Egypt and Chinese defense companies, such as Norinco and Shadow Wings, are working to localize advanced defense systems technology and transform Egypt into a regional manufacturing hub. Cooperation plans between Egypt and China also include the transfer of Chinese drone technology to Cairo, such as the ASN-209, and the training of Egyptian technicians on the maintenance of advanced military engines, such as the WS-10B. "

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
M

mshrief303

Junior Member
Registered Member
siegecrossbow said:
If Egypt does decide to make the leap they need to go for the whole package (EW, AWAC, fighter, and more). J-10C by itself is not going to change the calculus one bit. The aerial combat philosophy also needs to change.

Either way this is not something that can be done within one or two years. This has to be a sustained effort. Best course of action would be sending pilots/technicians to China to familiarize with the equipment and tactics ahead of time to make the onboarding as painless as possible.
Click to expand...
Fully Agree, it can be done in 3-5 years maybe 7, if the money is allocated. And I'm afraid if they didn't make it fast, they will need to wait in line because other countries made the leap before them, which will lead to late deliveries for Egypt needs.
 
M

mshrief303

Junior Member
Registered Member
sami_1 said:
Simply put, the market is now a buyer's market, not a seller's. Countries used to shy away from China due to the perceived limitations of its technology in the past, and there are some doubts about the reliability of Chinese aerospace products.
Click to expand...
"Buyer's market not a seller market" is Peak Jai Hind energy, nothing personal though.

Also that's another danger for Egypt is to think they have time to negotiate the best deal in the market:
- Only China can offer a system of systems for Egypt's air force, Russia can't build modern System of systems for themselves yet -- maybe after sometime, US won't give it to them, and Europe can't make their own system of systems without US.
- They should aim for multiple agreements rather than on grandiose agreement with China, every agreement for something they should negotiate with the mindset of giving Chinese companies the money and a suitable profit for both parties, not trying to get things in their factory cost --> which leads to longing negotiating and making china's negotiation party to move the deal in cold discussed topics for a long period.
- In islam the prophet says something around "God's mercy on the one who knows his real value", getting all high and mighty while you have existential threats and poor economy compared to your enemies is stupid.
- Egypt have stayed back for a long time and didn't participate in JF-17 project with Pakistan, because they didn't like it's quality, and yes block I & II were not good, but Block III got an AESA radar and can integrate PL-12 & PL-15 which is better than anything Egypt's air force can field -- unfortunately Pakistan have way more initiative than Egypt, Egypt should be in the same level if they want to win.

That's enough to be said for now, but it's not the end...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top