09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Blitzo]

Isn't the normal PLAN practice to build 2 units of a vessel & test things out/work out the kinks, before entering higher volume production? If we think 3-4 additional units under construction is a "reasonable guess", does that imply there are already 1-2 units that have been operating for a while now?

No. See 052D, 055, 09IIIB construction schedules.

 

[Lethe]

Testimony of RADM Mike Brookes, head of intelligence for the US Navy.

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In reply to question beginning at 01:16:00, Brookes associates Russian Kilo submarine sales with improvements in Chinese submarine quieting, propulsion and sensors, but attributes more recent improvements to domestic innovation and iteration rather than ongoing Russian assistance.

Folks may recall this was a subject of discussion some time back in relation to CMSI report by Christopher Carlson.

 

[bsdnf]

In reply to question beginning at 01:16:00, Brookes associates Russian Kilo submarine sales with improvements in Chinese submarine quieting, propulsion and sensors, but attributes more recent improvements to domestic innovation and iteration rather than ongoing Russian assistance.

Folks may recall this was a subject of discussion some time back in relation to CMSI report by Christopher Carlson.

It would be strange if they believed it is still related to the Kilo-class; only cavemen would think that.

 

[tphuang]

Testimony of RADM Mike Brookes, head of intelligence for the US Navy.

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I think this is pretty useful, at least the part confirming the 24-cell VLS, not that I had too much doubt on that.

I also think this is saying all 8 09IIIB will be in service by 2027 along with 3 mini-nukes. And they also will add 2 more 094, which I presume will be of better acoustic performance too based on this line

By 2027, China’s submarine force is projected to reach roughly 70 submarines, adding up to six SSGNs, three smaller class SSNs, and two SSBNs

this part seems like quite wishful thinking

for the early 2040s include around 20-30 new class SSGNs and SSBNs.

If 09IIIB is this good then another batch of 8 is no-brainer, really.

 

[Maikeru]

I think this is pretty useful, at least the part confirming the 24-cell VLS, not that I had too much doubt on that.

I also think this is saying all 8 09IIIB will be in service by 2027 along with 3 mini-nukes. And they also will add 2 more 094, which I presume will be of better acoustic performance too based on this line

this part seems like quite wishful thinking


If 09IIIB is this good then another batch of 8 is no-brainer, really.

I suspect the 2 new 094B may have already been launched, we just didn't see the launches because of cloud cover or simply the Sentinel pass missed it. Of the several 094s we've seen "refitting" in Huludao in the last few years, one or two could have been new builds fitting out.

Also in that report of note:

China is investing heavily to strengthen PLA Navy anti-submarine warfare for “high-end naval war,” fielding modern ASW ships with towed-array sonar, embarked helicopters, and quieter electric propulsion.

Is this a new design we haven't seen yet, or 054B, or what?

Personally I expect production rates to look something like this from about 2028:

SSBN - 0.5 to 1 a year
SSKN - 2 per year
SS(G)N - 3 to 4 per year.

By 2040 that would give at least 66 nuclear powered 'new class' boats, plus whatever is already in service by 2028 less what is retired by 2040. Wuchang would build UUVs as well as 041.

 

[Lethe]

It would be strange if they believed it is still related to the Kilo-class; only cavemen would think that.

The Kilo bit is only to provide historical context and contrast. The reason I highlighted Brooke's reply is that he attributes more recent Chinese improvements to domestic innovation and iteration, rather than more recent transfers of more contemporary Russian technology. Read in concert with the discussion occasioned by

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CMSI report a couple of years ago that posits 09V as benefitting from ongoing Russian inspiration and inputs-- specifically reactor design.

 

[00CuriousObserver]

A certain Otter says the planned 093B count is greater than 8

.. Which really isn't a surprise at all

 

[bsdnf]

A certain Otter says the planned 093B count is greater than 8

.. Which really isn't a surprise at all

How many 093B have been launched already? 12 or 14? Of course it will be more than 8.

That's how US military reports on China are; the data often lags behind the actual situation.

 

[iewgnem]

I've long wondered what's the motivation behind US pretending China is operating 60% of SSN construction bays on the planet for 8 years just to build 2 SSNs

Because there are plenty of people in the establishment who assumes China's building 6 a year

 

[gk1713]

I've long wondered what's the motivation behind US pretending China is operating 60% of SSN construction bays on the planet for 8 years just to build 2 SSNs

Because there are plenty of people in the establishment who assumes China's building 6 a year

It’s the same issue as estimating warhead numbers: if you officially suddenly change direction, then someone has to take responsibility for the earlier miscalculations