2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

Will Iran-Israel conflict start again?

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doggydogdo

doggydogdo

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TOKYO DRIFT ABC said:
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Ahmadinejad has been assassinated! It looks like Israel and the US are seriously aiming to decapitate the Iranian regime, perhaps with the ultimate goal of ushering in a new government led by the opposition.
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Nope, they are targeting hospitals and civilian infrastructure too because they want Iran destroyed. The regime didn't even do anything to the west
 
L

lube

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cqxt11 said:
i don't know why the dubai hits are such a big deal when they are still well within calibrated/pressure valve territory. it's like a dozen shaheds compared to the hundreds on kiev as a serious example?
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Shutting down Dubai airport with a few drones a day cripples global air freight and causes massive disruption at one of the world's largest air hubs.

And defending against rockets, they don't even have the interceptor stocks to last more than a few days by this rate. They'll be begging and scrambling for resupply that doesn't exist or is hoarded up by Israel and dwindling US reserves.

Even the MSM is starting to notice.
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  • The ability of the US, Israel and Gulf Arab states to weather Iran’s retaliatory strikes will depend on how many missile interceptors they have — and stocks are most likely dangerously low.
  • Defending against Iranian missiles, cruise missiles, and drones requires a big number of interceptors, with typical military doctrine calling for firing two or three at each incoming target.
  • Stocks of missile interceptors could be in danger of running low within days if the intensity of current Iranian attacks persists, according to a person familiar with the matter.
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zyklon

zyklon

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Serb said:
That strategy feels overly idealistic. Consider this: why has Iran avoided targeting the primary oil fields and ports in the Gulf, despite them being well within range of its short-range missiles and even artillery? These regions also have significant Shia populations. The nightmare scenario is that Iran, using a mix of drone strikes and local proxies, moves to systematically cripple that energy infrastructure. You want to bet why both sides avoided oil infrastructure nearly completely during both of these exchanges?

This is exactly why conventional westoid-zionist military success against Iran is so unlikely, unless we’re talking about a near-perfect, surgical decapitation strike. Otherwise, the math just doesn't work. As long as the regime remains operational and feels backed into a corner, they hold a massive trump card: the ability to permanently shutter Gulf oil production and economies for years. If they decide to play that hand, it wouldn’t just be a temporary supply dip; it would be a prolonged catastrophe for global energy markets, guaranteed to trigger hyper-inflation and huge economic chaos across the U.S. and beyond. It’s the ultimate ‘scorched earth’ deterrent.
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bsdnf said:
Then Iran will attack the oil facilities of the Gulf states.

If I can't export oil, then you can't produce oil either.

And we just back to the 1970s.
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Guys, that's why I stated the destruction of Kharg and other Iranian oil terminals would be conditional :p:

zyklon said:
So if the US and Israel are to move forward with destroying Iran's physical ability to export crude, they're going to need to sufficiently degrade Iran's offensive strike capabilities first, as well as effectively destroy the Iranian Navy so it can't blockade or threaten shipping transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Moreover, I acknowledge that there are oil terminals and other significant energy infrastructure within range of Iranian artillery and rockets on the Arab side of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the loss of Emirati or Omani oil terminals may represent an acceptable trade-off for the US government, especially with someone as pro-Israel as Donald Trump at the helm once the midterms conclude.

As the late Henry Kissinger put it: "It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."
 
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fleetmaestrooo

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Zichan said:
According to the reports I’ve read from the US side, they carried out 900 strikes in the first 12 hours. Israel carried out 500 strikes with over 200 aircraft, the largest air attack force Israel ever assembled against any country. In the same period, Iran fired 300 missiles.

If anything, it’s Iran’s response that was lackluster.
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This response is even more lackluster than how they responded during the 12 day war. Or maybe things are just getting started, and we’ll have to wait patiently..
 
T

Topazchen

Junior Member
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Serb said:
Drive oil prices high enough to destabilize the U.S. economy, which is uniquely vulnerable to inflation, and tank the stock market, the very foundation to which the U.S. is more comically and dangerously tied than any other nation on Earth. The pressure starts from Monday.

The administration will face immediate heat from all sides: political opponents, its own base, a huge part of them disapproving of this war, and the severe economic strain forced upon Gulf Arab states lobbying fiercely for the de-escalation. Meanwhile, the cost for Israel also continues to climb. Every missile fired now is one the U.S. cannot easily replace, draining a stockpile they were reserving for far bigger adversaries.
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Bodybags going back stateside is what would destroy Trump . Iran needs to sink a ship or two or eliminate a dozen or so American troops and dufu's base would instantly turn on him.
 
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