PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[Neurosmith]

finally a pro-china propagrandist actually understand the problem within PLA (or maybe entire china's society) ...instead of having the same goal as US gov ...lol
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Not going to comment on the whole Zhang situation, but pushing for an "early" Taiwan conflict is just about the most stupid thing the PLA brass could do. The military balance in the Pacific is gradually shifting in China's favor and having the time to build up industrial and military capacity is a crucial advantage that the Chinese leadership has realized for years.

It would actually be in the interest of the US and her allies to have China make a move on Taiwan at this point, as doing so would bleed China of her resources and personnel so as to cement the US' position as the unchallenged hegemon in the Pacific and ultimately the world. China's leadership realizes this, which is likely why there was such little reaction - military-wise - to clear provocations such as Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022.

As such, this little writeup from Zhao DaShuai sounds not like an official deduction of China's policy but rather the blogger's personal desires that are wishcast as the former.

 

[Blitzo]

Not going to comment on the whole Zhang situation, but pushing for an "early" Taiwan conflict is just about the most stupid thing the PLA brass could do. The military balance in the Pacific is gradually shifting in China's favor and having the time to build up industrial and military capacity is a crucial advantage that the Chinese leadership has realized for years.

It would actually be in the interest of the US and her allies to have China make a move on Taiwan at this point, as doing so would bleed China of her resources and personnel so as to cement the US' position as the unchallenged hegemon in the Pacific and ultimately the world. China's leadership realizes this, which is likely why there was such little reaction - military-wise - to clear provocations such as Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022.

As such, this little writeup from Zhao DaShuai sounds not like an official deduction of China's policy but rather the blogger's personal desires that are wishcast as the former.

finally a pro-china propagrandist actually understand the problem within PLA (or maybe entire china's society) ...instead of having the same goal as US gov ...lol
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Zhao Dashuai is one of a type of user on twitter who like to convey their own geopolitical opinions as if it were common sense or official, and often without good understanding of PLA matters either.

I don't see why their opinions should be posted here anymore than any random's opinion on twitter, especially given their track record is basically just one of chest thumping.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Not going to comment on the whole Zhang situation, but pushing for an "early" Taiwan conflict is just about the most stupid thing the PLA brass could do. The military balance in the Pacific is gradually shifting in China's favor and having the time to build up industrial and military capacity is a crucial advantage that the Chinese leadership has realized for years.

It would actually be in the interest of the US and her allies to have China make a move on Taiwan at this point, as doing so would bleed China of her resources and personnel so as to cement the US' position as the unchallenged hegemon in the Pacific and ultimately the world. China's leadership realizes this, which is likely why there was such little reaction - military-wise - to clear provocations such as Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022.

As such, this little writeup from Zhao DaShuai sounds not like an official deduction of China's policy but rather the blogger's personal desires that are wishcast as the former.

It will be stupid for China to actively push the situation now — maybe. But it is far dumber to not prepare for potential flashpoints because dumbass politicians need a “win” to gain support. Look at what Japan did last November for instance. There is no telling whether Lai or his handlers would get desperate and just flip the board because power balance is tilting in China’s favor. We now live in an era where Alberta independence has tacit support from the U.S. government for heaven’s sake…

 

[lockedemosthenes1]

Not going to comment on the whole Zhang situation, but pushing for an "early" Taiwan conflict is just about the most stupid thing the PLA brass could do. The military balance in the Pacific is gradually shifting in China's favor and having the time to build up industrial and military capacity is a crucial advantage that the Chinese leadership has realized for years.

It would actually be in the interest of the US and her allies to have China make a move on Taiwan at this point, as doing so would bleed China of her resources and personnel so as to cement the US' position as the unchallenged hegemon in the Pacific and ultimately the world. China's leadership realizes this, which is likely why there was such little reaction - military-wise - to clear provocations such as Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022.

As such, this little writeup from Zhao DaShuai sounds not like an official deduction of China's policy but rather the blogger's personal desires that are wishcast as the former.

I need to point out that just taking military affairs into consideration is not enough: The public's willingness to support a unification war is declining, and sentiments reminiscent of early 20th-century American isolationism are emerging. Moreover, if unification is delayed until military preparations are fully complete, new pretexts—such as insufficient energy readiness or economic unpreparedness—will inevitably be invoked to further obstruct action. Therefore, although launching a unification war now may not guarantee a success rate exceeding 75%, it would prevent the public from becoming entrenched in isolationist sentiment. Furthermore, Russia’s ongoing special military operation demonstrates that a unification war conducted over a prolonged period of 5 to 10 years, with casualties on the order of 300,000, is acceptable as well.

 

[GOODTREE]

Taiwan to block mainland apps on campus networks​

Source: Xinhua
Editor: huaxia
2026-01-30 22:26:15

TAIPEI, Jan. 30 (Xinhua) -- Taiwan's education authorities on Friday announced a ban on access to several mainland apps, including Douyin and Weibo, on the island's campus networks.

This will restrict access from academic networks and school Wi-Fi to Rednote, Weibo, WeChat, Douyin (the mainland version of TikTok), and cloud service app Baidu Netdisk, according to the authorities.

The move comes after these apps were placed on a "high-risk" list by the island's digital affairs authorities to "prevent children and adolescents from exposure to age-inappropriate content" and to address "possible cybersecurity risks."

The island's education authorities also warned that primary and secondary schools should not use these apps in teaching activities.

A mainland spokesperson on Wednesday criticized Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party authorities for hyping up the so-called information security risks of mainland apps, noting that these measures have deprived people on the island of the freedom to use social networking platforms.

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[GulfLander]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017362507577377133

 

[gcc]

finally a pro-china propagrandist actually understand the problem within PLA (or maybe entire china's society) ...instead of having the same goal as US gov ...lol
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do we have a source on the article below?
i would like to read more on the objective™ advice

 

[Neurosmith]

It will be stupid for China to actively push the situation now — maybe. But it is far dumber to not prepare for potential flashpoints because dumbass politicians need a “win” to gain support. Look at what Japan did last November for instance. There is no telling whether Lai or his handlers would get desperate and just flip the board because power balance is tilting in China’s favor. We now live in an era where Alberta independence has tacit support from the U.S. government for heaven’s sake…

Being prepared for any contingencies is one thing; nobody is denying that the Chinese have been doing that since 1949. Having a plan and timeline to actually going through with a Taiwan campaign is another thing.

We know that the US military have plans for a Canadian campaign, but it doesn't mean that the US is planning to attack Canada by a certain date (although things might seem on the brink these days).

I need to point out that just taking military affairs into consideration is not enough: The public's willingness to support a unification war is declining, and sentiments reminiscent of early 20th-century American isolationism are emerging. Moreover, if unification is delayed until military preparations are fully complete, new pretexts—such as insufficient energy readiness or economic unpreparedness—will inevitably be invoked to further obstruct action. Therefore, although launching a unification war now may not guarantee a success rate exceeding 75%, it would prevent the public from becoming entrenched in isolationist sentiment. Furthermore, Russia’s ongoing special military operation demonstrates that a unification war conducted over a prolonged period of 5 to 10 years, with casualties on the order of 300,000, is acceptable as well.

There likely isn't a clear definition of what it means to be "fully prepared" for a Taiwan campaign; these are moving goalposts and there might never be a "perfect" time or condition in which a Taiwan operation would make most sense.

As for public support and its supposed decline (no evidence of this but let's entertain this for argument's sake), their leadership would have to weigh that against the possibility of greater domestic backlash should a Taiwan campaign be unsuccessful or costly. I'm also not convinced that public sentiment is something that the CCP gives too much though about. Suffice it to say, things like public support and the ambiguous measure of isolationist sentiment are trivial compared to the real ramifications and risks of a Taiwan campaign, economic- and political-wise. If the Chinese government has any care about China's society, economic wellbeing, and the living standards of its citizens, it would need to ensure that armed reunification would occur only in the most dire of circumstances (e.g. an imminent and unacceptable threat to China such as the development of WMDs by Taiwan) and when there is near 100% confidence that such an operation would succeed without incurring the risk of economic or military harm.

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

finally a pro-china propagrandist actually understand the problem within PLA (or maybe entire china's society) ...instead of having the same goal as US gov ...lol
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But if the main reason of Zhang’s removal were his political difference with Xi regarding Taiwan and reluctance to fight the Americans, then his punishment should have been dismissal only whilst keeping his Party membership and pension. Just have him retire and go teach basic combat in a military academy or work in a policy think tank.

The removal of Zhang in such humiliating fashion not only weakens China’s deterrence, but also degrades PLA’s moral since Zhang is one of the few former flag officers with in-depth combat experience. Professional officers with valuable combat experience like him are what average soldiers and frontline officers look up to as role models. It is a huge loss for China.

 

[tokenanalyst]

But if the main reason of Zhang’s removal were his political difference with Xi regarding Taiwan and reluctance to fight the Americans, then his punishment should have been dismissal only whilst keeping his Party membership and pension. Just have him retire and go teach basic combat in a military academy or work in a policy think tank.

The removal of Zhang in such humiliating fashion not only weakens China’s deterrence, but also degrades PLA’s moral since Zhang is one of the few former flag officers with in-depth combat experience. Professional officers with valuable combat experience like him are what average soldiers and frontline officers look up to as role models. It is a huge loss for China.

China modern military readiness doesn´t depend on a single person, not even Xi, so would be gigantic miscalculation to ignore that. And that is the problem with the announcement, miscalculation, unless China top brass was looking to DPP Lai to make a gigantic mistake that justify a total mobilization to a invasion and the absolute destruction of that island.