Chinese Economics Thread

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

Collapse in births this year(2025), I am really astonished what has happened in 2025, every year I am thinking it won't come much lower but every year it is. I thought this year we will see 8.5m which is really low but we have only 7.92m, last year it was 9.54m. TFR most likely felt below 1.0. We're going South Korea and Taiwan province direction. Now no reason for restraints and conservatives policy. Huge subsidies are needed now no later to try to change anything in birth rate.

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[AF-1]

As i said many times, no measures will ever help if 9-9-6 not wanish for good. Give people human conditions first, 8 hours, 5 days, 2 days off to have real life with families...
As simple as that

 

[Proteus]

Collapse in births this year, I am really astonished what has happened this year, every year I am thinking it won't come much lower but every year it is. I thought this year we will see 8.5m which is really low but we have only 7.92m, last year it was 9.54m. TFR most likely felt below 1.0. We're going South Korea and Taiwan province direction. Now no reason for restraints and conservatives policy. Huge subsidies are needed to try to change anything in birth rate.

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Subsidies will not change too much, China society is has many conflict that make that have children or make a family are very high time and resources, cause a lot of chaos in society, I still cannot understand why make a family need a lot of money, that cause everyone greedy, make inappropriate action to gain enough money and fall to capitalism trap.

 

[Eventine]

Collapse in births this year(2025), I am really astonished what has happened in 2025, every year I am thinking it won't come much lower but every year it is. I thought this year we will see 8.5m which is really low but we have only 7.92m, last year it was 9.54m. TFR most likely felt below 1.0. We're going South Korea and Taiwan province direction. Now no reason for restraints and conservatives policy. Huge subsidies are needed now no later to try to change anything in birth rate.

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South Korea has actually increased its TFR in the last two years, hence now Taiwan has the lowest TFR in the world. Policies do work but there must be political desire and will to carry it out.

 

[Overbom]

Subsidies will not change too much, China society is has many conflict that make that have children or make a family are very high time and resources, cause a lot of chaos in society, I still cannot understand why make a family need a lot of money, that cause everyone greedy, make inappropriate action to gain enough money and fall to capitalism trap.

All baby essential items and clothing should be provided by SOE's massive automated factories. And start comprehensive study on whether private companies should be entirely banned from this sector


Provide baby essential goods and food (in form of vouchers, that can only be spent on these SOEs) for "free" (subsided by general taxation since more babies positively affect economy and will ultimately pay for your retirement). This small extra taxation will not be applied to people with 2 or more children.

Capitalism is capitalism and communism is communism. For really essential things, use government power enabled by automation and AI for massive cost advantages, and reducing corruption/inefficiencies

 

[Quan8410]

All baby essential items and clothing should be provided by SOE's massive automated factories. And start comprehensive study on whether private companies should be entirely banned from this sector


Provide baby essential goods and food (in form of vouchers, that can only be spent on these SOEs) for "free" (subsided by general taxation since more babies positively affect economy and will ultimately pay for your retirement). This small extra taxation will not be applied to people with 2 or more children.

Capitalism is capitalism and communism is communism. For really essential things, use government power enabled by automation and AI for massive cost advantages, and reducing corruption/inefficiencies

China simply lack money lol. Just look at the subsidies provinces give to couple. No way in hell that can boost birth rate. At the same time, China hold massive surplus but don't want to convert it to RMB to increase the subsidies, fearing that will destroy their export. Hence trillions of USD sit in the banks for nothing.

 

[PopularScience]

China simply lack money lol. Just look at the subsidies provinces give to couple. No way in hell that can boost birth rate. At the same time, China hold massive surplus but don't want to convert it to RMB to increase the subsidies, fearing that will destroy their export. Hence trillions of USD sit in the banks for nothing.

marry rate increased last year

 

[Xiongmao]

As i said many times, no measures will ever help if 9-9-6 not wanish for good. Give people human conditions first, 8 hours, 5 days, 2 days off to have real life with families...
As simple as that

As well as free childcare and subsidies, if every person who turns 18 years old is given a free property to own and move into. That sort it out. It's just bricks and mortar, it would be cheaper to build a new property than some countries give in child benefits up to 18 years.

 

[lockedemosthenes1]

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The latest data for 2025, reasons why current fertility rate data may not be particularly crucial:

Birth population: 7.92 million people; Death population: 11.31 million people. (Birth population decreased by 1.68 million people compared to the previous year)
At year-end, the national population was 1.40489 billion people, a decrease of 3.39 million people compared to the previous year-end;
However, the urban permanent resident population was 953.8 million people, an increase of 10.30 million people compared to the previous year-end; the rural permanent resident population was 451.1 million people, a decrease of 13.69 million people;
Considering that the economic value of rural population is relatively low (probably), their labor productivity is relatively low, and they can be more easily replaced by intelligent agricultural machinery, so actually this fertility rate may still be acceptable?
Additionally, the marriage rate in 2025 is higher than in 2024 (annual data doesn't seem to be available yet, using the first half of the year for estimation).
Furthermore, at the end of 2024, the urban permanent resident population was 943.50 million people, an increase of 10.83 million people compared to the previous year-end; the rural permanent resident population was 464.78 million people, a decrease of 12.22 million people. Since the reduction in the increase of urban permanent resident population is not too significant, it may still be acceptable?

 

[Iracundus]

I was in Shenzhen last week and spoke to somebody I know who is married. He said the government subsidies (think one he was referring to specifically was 3000 RMB for childcare per year for 3 years) are too small and insignificant to convince him and his wife to have a kid. He said he would need 2 million RMB (did not say if as one time payment or spread over years), but then he said neither he and his wife really wanted kids period.

I think it will need to be more than just money though that obviously plays a role. People need free time and people with kids should be given additional perks (not necessarily just monetary) to make having kids more desirable.