052C/052D Class Destroyers

[AndrewS]

Untrue, China has only 5 more 052Ds and 6 055s left to commission with no further launch. There is no guarantee that PLAN will continue mass orders and given that PLAN will likely be going through a large technological overhaul this 5YP, alot of new types will be introduced which will limit production rate.

Granted, the Type-052D could do with updated version.
But the Type-055 design is new, so I don't see why the design needs a "large technological overhaul".

And when you refer about new types being introduced, I presume you're talking about the 6 new aircraft carriers to be built by 2035, as per Pentagon reporting to Congress? Such an aircraft carrier construction programme would benefit from reduced Destroyer production to free up shipyard capacity at Dalian and Jiangnan.

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And looking at the notional fleet structure in 2035 that require Destroyers as escorts, there should already be enough destroyers today.

 

[Tomboy]

Granted, the Type-052D could do with updated version.
But the Type-055 design is new, so I don't see why the design needs a "large technological overhaul".

There are already credible rumors on both new general purpose destroyer and frigate replacement from the trios and SOYO. New types will take up capacity for existing models and take longer to enter service and production. We are likely to see a dip in amount of ships built for the PLAN in the next 5 years.

 

[AndrewS]

There are already credible rumors on both new general purpose destroyer and frigate replacement from the trios and SOYO. New types will take up capacity for existing models and take longer to enter service and production. We are likely to see a dip in amount of ships built for the PLAN in the next 5 years.

What we've seen previously is that even though 2 of the future replacement class have been built (eg. Type-052D and Type-054B), they're still happy to continue with production of the existing class. That gives them time to evaluate and refine the design, and also prepare for serial production.

So I could see a new frigate and general purpose destroyer design making a slight dip in the overall production over a 5 year period, but when we're talking about ~20 destroyers and ~20 frigates every 5 years, it shouldn't make that much difference.

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I do think we will see a reduction in the number of ships built in the next 10 years, but I think this will be due to the aircraft carrier construction programme.

 

[ddr711]

Untrue, China has only 5 more 052Ds and 6 055s left to commission with no further launch. There is no guarantee that PLAN will continue mass orders and given that PLAN will likely be going through a large technological overhaul this 5YP, alot of new types will be introduced which will limit production rate.

The five known tender documents for the Type 052D destroyers are actually additional orders placed during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The exact number of destroyers to be built under the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) remains unclear. Generally, tender information for a Five-Year Plan typically becomes available only in the second or third year of the plan. Even if the number is only half of that in the 14th Five-Year Plan, it would certainly exceed ten vessels. The plans announced by the United States often span 10-20 years and are subject to significant variables, whereas China's plans for the next five years are often not publicly known in advance.

 

[AndrewS]

The five known tender documents for the Type 052D destroyers are actually additional orders placed during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The exact number of destroyers to be built under the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) remains unclear. Generally, tender information for a Five-Year Plan typically becomes available only in the second or third year of the plan. Even if the number is only half of that in the 14th Five-Year Plan, it would certainly exceed ten vessels. The plans announced by the United States often span 10-20 years and are subject to significant variables, whereas China's plans for the next five years are often not publicly known in advance.

My guess is that they would finish off a nuclear carrier and then a conventional carrier first.
Then switch over to a batch of Destroyers. In that time, they test and evaluate the carriers.
Then they go back to building carriers.

 

[ddr711]

My guess is that they would finish off a nuclear carrier and then a conventional carrier first.
Then switch over to a batch of Destroyers. In that time, they test and evaluate the carriers.
Then they go back to building carriers.

It is highly likely that two supercarriers are currently under construction simultaneously, one in the north and another in the south. As for the destroyer production volume during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, I believe there will not be a significant decline. An indirect clue supporting this is that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Corporation established a new destroyer production line in Dagushan. If the destroyer production volume were expected to decrease noticeably during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, there would have been no need to build this new line, as the original production lines would have had sufficient capacity.

 

[AndrewS]

It is highly likely that two supercarriers are currently under construction simultaneously, one in the north and another in the south. As for the destroyer production volume during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, I believe there will not be a significant decline. An indirect clue supporting this is that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Corporation established a new destroyer production line in Dagushan. If the destroyer production volume were expected to decrease noticeably during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, there would have been no need to build this new line, as the original production lines would have had sufficient capacity.

If Destroyer production is not slowing down, that implies about 100 Aegis-type Destroyers by 2035.

That is far too many just for missions in the 1st Island Chain, and would support the Pentagon report of 6 new Chinese aircraft carriers by 2035, for a total of 9.

Note the US only has about 80 destroyers for all missions, including escorting 11 aircraft carriers.

 

[def333]

As of the end of 2025, the commissioned Chinese Aegis destroyers should be: 6 × Type 052C + 33 × Type 052D + 8 × Type 055 = 47.

6 × Type 052C + 35 × Type 052D + 10 × Type 055 = 51.

 

[ddr711]

If Destroyer production is not slowing down, that implies about 100 Aegis-type Destroyers by 2035.

That is far too many just for missions in the 1st Island Chain, and would support the Pentagon report of 6 new Chinese aircraft carriers by 2035, for a total of 9.

Note the US only has about 80 destroyers for all missions, including escorting 11 aircraft carriers.

From the perspective of demands, if China's intention is to confront the entire alliance of the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Taiwan, and NATO, then merely having more destroyers and other types of combat ships than the United States is not sufficient. From the perspective of industrial strength, the prices of industrial products in China have been in a state of continuous deflation over the past few years. Even various technological weapons are no exception. Even if military expenditure merely maintains the same growth rate as GDP, it is sufficient to meet this demand.
I think it's a mindset to believe that China's naval force size won't exceed that of the United States. Does that mean China will necessarily be content to remain confined within the First Island Chain? Just in terms of shipbuilding capabilities, the current gap between China and the United States is much larger than that between Japan and the United States before World War II. China only needs to maintain its current military expenditure as a proportion of GDP, and it will be sufficient to have a naval force size surpassing that of the entire Western bloc in the foreseeable future, such as within fifteen years, without affecting economic development.
The problem lies in whether the current adjustments to the establishment, expansion of capacity, and training of professional personnel can keep up.

 

[ddr711]

6 × Type 052C + 35 × Type 052D + 10 × Type 055 = 51.

Yes, the data I see is only through December 2025, but this does not affect the conclusion.