Miscellaneous News

[Nevermore]

This year, I remain particularly concerned about Japan's potential pursuit of nuclear weapons and the United States' annexation of Greenland. Even if countries like Venezuela and Colombia were to fall under U.S. control, the impact would be extremely limited.

Japan's move toward nuclear armament will trigger comprehensive political and military tensions, or even conflict, across East Asia. Meanwhile, Trump's annexation of Greenland would reshape the entire European landscape. Many European nations may then alter their policies of relying on U.S. protection. Furthermore, U.S. ownership of Greenland would exert a degree of long-term global military influence that could constrain China and Russia.

 

[bebops]

This year, I remain particularly concerned about Japan's potential pursuit of nuclear weapons and the United States' annexation of Greenland. Even if countries like Venezuela and Colombia were to fall under U.S. control, the impact would be extremely limited.

Japan's move toward nuclear armament will trigger comprehensive political and military tensions, or even conflict, across East Asia. Meanwhile, Trump's annexation of Greenland would reshape the entire European landscape. Many European nations may then alter their policies of relying on U.S. protection. Furthermore, U.S. ownership of Greenland would exert a degree of long-term global military influence that could constrain China and Russia.

If what China media said is true that Japan will have nukes in three years, then that will change the calculus in the first island.

I don't think China wants any kind of conflict these upcoming years. In 2035, it is a different story but I don't think they want one now. Other than expressing anger of words, I don't know what else China can do.

 

[AndrewS]

If what China media said is true that Japan will have nukes in three years, then that will change the calculus in the first island.

I don't think China wants any kind of conflict these upcoming years. In 2035, it is a different story but I don't think they want one now. Other than expressing anger of words, I don't know what else China can do.

China could sanction Japan and watch all their industries collapse?

 

[Randomuser]

If what China media said is true that Japan will have nukes in three years, then that will change the calculus in the first island.

I don't think China wants any kind of conflict these upcoming years. In 2035, it is a different story but I don't think they want one now. Other than expressing anger of words, I don't know what else China can do.

It's the delivery weapon that really counts.

 

[Nevermore]

If what China media said is true that Japan will have nukes in three years, then that will change the calculus in the first island.

I don't think China wants any kind of conflict these upcoming years. In 2035, it is a different story but I don't think they want one now. Other than expressing anger of words, I don't know what else China can do.

China may adopt a conservative approach over the next five years, with the first round of sanctions likely to be extremely severe and comprehensive trade sanctions. However, given the significant impact of Japan's nuclear capabilities on East Asia and the fact that Japan's economy can still find solid support in the Western world, China could still potentially launch precision strikes against Japan's nuclear research facilities if it secures support from some of the following: North Korea, South Korea, or Russia.

 

[Maikeru]

Greenland is already US territory for military purposes.

As for Japanese nukes, a joint position statement by Russia, China and North Korea (and maybe South Korea) could be made stating their joint proposed retaliatory actions should this come to pass.

 

[tokenanalyst]

If what China media said is true that Japan will have nukes in three years, then that will change the calculus in the first island.

I don't think China wants any kind of conflict these upcoming years. In 2035, it is a different story but I don't think they want one now. Other than expressing anger of words, I don't know what else China can do.

Will push China to reach parity with the US sooner and abandon their not first use policy, increasing that any conflict could escalate into a nuclear exchange and given Japan density population they could lost 100M people easily.
It becomes an issue who losses more. Its sacrificing Tokyo for Taipei worth for Japan? That is discussion that they should have with their people, personally I don't think so, I think Japan getting nukes will increase the threat of nuclear war and ironically will make less likely Japan interfering, if that conflict stay mostly conventional.

 

[Almond98]

With the way venezuela war going on and israel getting greenlight to strike iran, it also makes me somewhat worry about the future. If they are successfully turn those countries into their puppets they might have more influence then they are right now. Plus it shows that usa still rule the world. They have the mightiest force in the world. This will give more motivation to taiwanese to be more resistance than before.

 

[bebops]

With the way venezuela war going on and israel getting greenlight to strike iran, it also makes me somewhat worry about the future. If they are successfully turn those countries into their puppets they might have more influence then they are right now. Plus it shows that usa still rule the world. They have the mightiest force in the world. This will give more motivation to taiwanese to be more resistance than before.

It doesn't stop at venezuela, Trump wants Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, Canada and Greenland too. Yes, it is becoming scary.

Maybe history is different this time. Maybe US is not collapsing like what we are told. Maybe US will rule the world for hundreds of more years like some dynasty.

US rules the world with brute force and military. U.S don't need manufacturer of everything. They only need military manufacturers to keep producing stuff.

 

[pmc]

South American countries lack the grit to conduct asymmetric warfare in the face of an overwhelming disadvantage. In some sense, it was beaten out of them during the Cold War, as hardcore guerillas like Che Guevara and his band were hunted down & executed. But in another sense, there's just not a sufficiently powerful ideological force within South America to oppose American hegemony - they've more or less accepted it and have found a niche within it, with the eventual hope of a Latino demographic take-over of the US in place of any military resistance.

I have read Latino demographic is now below replacement level. US is designed for where high achiever are overcompensated and any economic decline will impact latino demographic worse. This Covid did to hispanic.

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Contrast that with the Middle East, where despite being at even more of a disadvantage vs. Western militaries, Islamic insurgents were able to consistently pose a problem for the US military. Decades after the US began its campaign to "democratize" the Middle-East, we see the Taliban return to power in Afghanistan, and the rest of the US's "nation-building" projects descending into irrelevance. The shift to a more "use Arabs to fight Arabs" strategy, under Trump and Biden, was, in this sense, out of necessity - the US recognized that it couldn't just pull off a simple military victory.

South America is clearly not the Middle East, and expecting South Americans to fight like Arabs or even Iranians is just not practical. China's ability to guarantee security in the region is effectively zero. You can't seriously defend people who won't seriously defend themselves.

lol. how can you ignore Soft Power. which is only comes from Royal Families. Afghans of all sheds have that connections. even these Houthis who are on opposite end are saved by Oman.