People need to calm down about Maduro.
This is a marathon, winner takes all contest. The U.S. gave up the right to walk away after they feel they have won enough with the trade war. They made this a life and death struggle, so it’s the long game that matters.
Trump’s America is like the annoying All-In on first bet guy at poker. He might win some hands and force you to fold a winning hand now and again, but there is a reason people who play like that never ever win at the end. For such a game plan to work, you need to win every hand. Whereas all anyone else needs to do is catch up out one hand and you are either out or massively down.
China always knew Venezuela was a long shot. It is firmly in America’s backyard and on the wrong side of the Panama canal for China to have any serious plans to support them against America. The logistics of arms shipments alone is almost insurmountable.
What China did not as minimum viable investment to keep that card live and force America to roll the dice on military action. It just turns out the dice gods are kind to Trump today. Shrug and move on. This wasn’t any major loss, but already is starting to pay unexpected dividends in how arrogant it’s made the Americans. Already Trump and his ilk have made overt threats against 3 other LATAM countries. America needlessly setting its own, already secured, backyard on fire and invading everyone and getting bogged down in unwinnable forever wars would be a hilarious own goal and would basically guarantee Chinese overall victory.
The Chinese strategy is to keep as many plays alive as possible at minimal cost while preserving and building its own strength. It can then choose the showdown at a time and place of its choosing, not Americas.
Those who suggest China would mindlessly fight every American move is basically the mirror of the people running America’s strategy right now that seems then flailing at shadows and jumping at ever move by China and exhausting itself for no reason.