US conflict in the Americas

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Blitzo

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Saddam managed to evade capture for more than 8 months. Maduro couldn't even last half a day?

Wtf is with this degree of incompetence lmfao

Different geostrategic environment, different degree of support/infiltration, different degree of resistance.

As others have written, the overall military seems to have stood down, and I wouldn't be surprised if most of the strikes from the US in the last few months have coincided with significant backroom contacts to tell the local military to stand down.


Russia and China of course were not in any particular position to ship meaningful weapons to Venezuela -- given the state of Venezuela's military, nation-state economics, and overall governing competence, it would've taken some 3-5 years to establish a military force capable of really resisting US military force outright, and that would require Russia or China actually bankrolling the effort in one which would ultimately fail. And that would assume the US did not simply interdict shipping of cargo ships delivering weapons as well, which neither Russia or China would be willing to escalate with military force to ensure safe passage for.


Friendly reminder that the military disparity between the US and Venezuela is magnitudes greater than that between China and Taiwan. Venezuela has a garage-industry air force with outdated handful of Su-30s and F-16s, little to no domestic weapons manufacturing capacity, and - from what the US strikes have demonstrated - little to no command & control capabilities over its military. Taiwan, on the other hand, has some ~400 fighter aircraft comprised of extremely-modernized F-16s, Mirage 2000s, and its indigenous F-CK-1, a domestic military industry that has allowed it to stockpile thousands of cruise missiles, an integrated ADS, and a functioning navy with some fairly modern vessels. I would also presume that Taiwan's command and communications are better-protected than that of Venezuela.

An operation against Taiwan's leadership and military command would look very, very different in scope and design from what we're seeing here in Venezuela.

There would be no particular parallels between the prospect of a similar PLA operation, in the sense that it would not occur in an opening phase manner. At most it might occur after weeks of bombardment in which it would require substantial elements ROC leadership (military and civil) to betray and give up on whoever the figurehead of independence is, and then possibly some sort of high effort coordinated SOF in and out operation against a mostly depleted and uncoordinated ROC military in the same way that the Venezuelan military is now (though the latter's depletion occurred over years and years of neglect).
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
Friendly reminder that the military disparity between the US and Venezuela is magnitudes greater than that between China and Taiwan. Venezuela has a garage-industry air force with outdated handful of Su-30s and F-16s, little to no domestic weapons manufacturing capacity, and - from what the US strikes have demonstrated - little to no command & control capabilities over its military. Taiwan, on the other hand, has some ~400 fighter aircraft comprised of extremely-modernized F-16s, Mirage 2000s, and its indigenous F-CK-1, a domestic military industry that has allowed it to stockpile thousands of cruise missiles, an integrated ADS, and a functioning navy with some fairly modern vessels. I would also presume that Taiwan's command and communications are better-protected than that of Venezuela.

An operation against Taiwan's leadership and military command would look very, very different in scope and design from what we're seeing here in Venezuela.
But for the fact that the deep blue in the KMT intelligence service and military are probably way more compromised lol.
 

Neurosmith

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There would be no particular parallels between the prospect of a similar PLA operation, in the sense that it would not occur in an opening phase manner. At most it might occur after weeks of bombardment in which it would require substantial elements ROC leadership (military and civil) to betray and give up on whoever the figurehead of independence is, and then possibly some sort of high effort coordinated SOF in and out operation against a mostly depleted and uncoordinated ROC military in the same way that the Venezuelan military is now (though the latter's depletion occurred over years and years of neglect).
Yes, and even if the PLA were to successfully break down the ROC's resistance and moral to the point where its military leadership is entertaining the idea of "handing over" control to Beijing, the process of locating and extracting key personnel might be a whole endeavor in and of itself - as Saddam had demonstrated. My post is mainly in rebuttal to the thought experiment being thrown around of the PLA capturing Taiwan's top leadership in the opening hours of a notional AR, which is - to say the least - ridiculous...
 

Minm

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This could have all been avoided by putting a PLA base in Venezuela. It's a shame that nobody is stepping up to fight America. China gave Venezuela billions in loans for oil, not sure if much of that has been repaid.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
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This could have all been avoided by putting a PLA base in Venezuela. It's a shame that nobody is stepping up to fight America. China gave Venezuela billions in loans for oil, not sure if much of that has been repaid.
No that's terrible strategy. Just like how Western Pacific is unfavourable terrain for Americans due to tyranny of distance, Latin America is unfavourable terrain for China for the same reason.

You always avoid fighting on unfavourable terrain if you can help it.
 

sutton999

Junior Member
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American has never mounted to any military resistance against US intervations.

Maybe the most succeful one is Panama under occupation, locals sabtaged/block the canal, US agreed to withdraw.

China does the right thing here. Venzeuela isn't capable of resistance, the main reason is scoical economic, military gear won't help.
 
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