PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[RoastGooseHKer]

This definitely poses threat to China with those 82 HIMARS and over 420 ATACMS and the 120 M109A7 and not mention this is the largest arm sale to Taiwan, after this they will have 111 HIMARS and 504 ATACMS what is a big amount and a threat to China..

Doesn’t Taiwan already have 500-1000 HF-2E and Yun Feng cruise missiles capable of hitting targets deep inside China? The 420 ATACMS’ <300 km range only seem to threaten China’s coastal regions, but they will surely buy time for Taiwan since they will prevent the PLA from amassing/concentrating troops in ports and beaches across the Taiwan Strait. In other words, PLA would only start loading troops onto ferries once Taiwan run out of ATACMS, Yin Feng, HF-2E, and loiter drones. So it seems like the strategy for China would be to triple and quadruple its missiles and rocket artillery arsenal size until it is capable to engaging in sustained fire support until Taiwan run out (and still have enough munitions to fight off a subsequent U.S. intervention). So the PLARF and PLAGF’s long range artillery brigades will now have be dramatically enlarged and increased in numbers? You also have to take account into Japan’ upcoming deployment of its own land attack cruise missiles.

 

[BasilicaLew]

Doesn’t Taiwan already have 500-1000 HF-2E and Yun Feng cruise missiles capable of hitting targets deep inside China? The 420 ATACMS’ <300 km range only seem to threaten China’s coastal regions, but they will surely buy time for Taiwan since they will prevent the PLA from amassing/concentrating troops in ports and beaches across the Taiwan Strait. In other words, PLA would only start loading troops onto ferries once Taiwan run out of ATACMS, Yin Feng, HF-2E, and loiter drones. So it seems like the strategy for China would be to triple and quadruple its missiles and rocket artillery arsenal size until it is capable to engaging in sustained fire support until Taiwan run out (and still have enough munitions to fight off a subsequent U.S. intervention). So the PLARF and PLAGF’s long range artillery brigades will now have be dramatically enlarged and increased in numbers? You also have to take account into Japan’ upcoming deployment of its own land attack cruise missiles.

Good luck trying to launch them if america joins, American forces will be using all possible targeting systems for their own forces, and I doubt Taiwan can really have amazing targeting, and without that, the missiles are sitting ducks for PLAAF, even the 3rd line aircraft can deal with them. There's a reason Americans want ballistic missiles, the only issue is China can make 4 for every 1 ballistic missile American makes, at double the quality and range.

 

[Zhejiang]

Doesn’t Taiwan already have 500-1000 HF-2E and Yun Feng cruise missiles capable of hitting targets deep inside China? The 420 ATACMS’ <300 km range only seem to threaten China’s coastal regions, but they will surely buy time for Taiwan since they will prevent the PLA from amassing/concentrating troops in ports and beaches across the Taiwan Strait. In other words, PLA would only start loading troops onto ferries once Taiwan run out of ATACMS, Yin Feng, HF-2E, and loiter drones. So it seems like the strategy for China would be to triple and quadruple its missiles and rocket artillery arsenal size until it is capable to engaging in sustained fire support until Taiwan run out (and still have enough munitions to fight off a subsequent U.S. intervention). So the PLARF and PLAGF’s long range artillery brigades will now have be dramatically enlarged and increased in numbers? You also have to take account into Japan’ upcoming deployment of its own land attack cruise missiles.

You definitely do but if China starts with a mass missile attack on Taiwan then I would presume a lot of the ATACMS and missiles could be gone but all this does is delay China and buy more time for the west to intervene so I do agree that China needs to mass up their production of missiles and drones but I am not as worried about the ATACMS as I am as the 111 HIMARS they will now have in total, to me that’s the greatest threat to China in this deal.

 

[AndrewS]

You are counting the chicken before they hatch. Until US actually leaves Asia Pacific, your assumptions don't work, because US still has bases in Asia Pacific to take potshots at China. Furthermore, IADS isn't fool proof, and disruptive technologies could suddenly appear and render IADS useless overnight, much like what drones did to land warfare. Your scenario of "an uninterrupt production just more" for naval vessels could only occur in peace time, and would not happen in war time. Your scenario is just shit, simple as that. I don't need to suggest an alternate course of action.

So in a scenario where China and the US are locked in a long war, you have no thoughts?

This argument doesn't work. Top-notch processes are already in-place, hence why China is No 1. in manufacturing. No one is sitting on a top-top-notch process until wartime to bring you that magic 15x increase in aircraft carrier production.

It's actually a 7.5x increase for the first set of aircraft carriers.
And when a shipyard finishes one set, it follows with another set.

So overall, it's more like a 10x increase because of the longer timeline.

Irrelevant example. Cars are produced in the number of tens of millions. Naval vessels even with "significant numbers" are a few dozen at best, and carriers are in single digit. The production method is different, with one on a pulsed assembly line and the other one isn't. The size is different. There is no comparison.

No. Most car models are not produced in their millions.

Look at the example of NIO. They had automated factories even when production numbers for their various models were counted only in the thousands.

I would also point out that 30 aircraft carriers, each with 6 escorts, implies 180 escort vessels, mostly Type-055 and Type-052D. So we're not talking about a "few dozen naval vessels"

Just because you don't think about it, doesn't mean it is cope. How many experienced workers are retiring in the next 10 years versus how many Gen-Z to replace them? Do Gen-Z even want to do hard labour in a shipyard? This is a people-problem, whereas you only thought about technologies and assumed human act like robots.

That argument doesn't make sense.

It's a wartime scenario, and you expect critical, experienced workers to retire? At a minimum, they will stick around to supervise and train.

And why are you talking about Gen-Z?

Export industries would likely have excess manufacturing personnel and capacity, so they would be the first choice to switch to shipyards. In a wartime scenario, every worker building a warship understands why they are doing this.



Also remember that half of the Chinese population is still living on less than $10 per day.
I expect that shipyards can attract workers

 

[Heliox]

This extreme calmness in the straight will allow the PLAs amphibious armored equipment, with flotation devices attached to deploy from far out in the straight, or even from the mainland directly. We have seen this equipment being tested.

Staging amphib IFVs from the mainland to Taiwan is NOT going to happen. Not with the ZBD-05
No one is going to do a 4+ hours amphib transit at max speed in an IFV.
Neither are you going to do a 8+ hours amphib transit at cruising speed in an IFV.

The soldiers will be in a shit state at the end of it.
There won't be much usable fuel left for operational purposes at the end of the transit.

 

[davidau]

So in a scenario where China and the US are locked in a long war, you have no thoughts?



It's actually a 7.5x increase for the first set of aircraft carriers.
And when a shipyard finishes one set, it follows with another set.

So overall, it's more like a 10x increase because of the longer timeline.



No. Most car models are not produced in their millions.

Look at the example of NIO. They had automated factories even when production numbers for their various models were counted only in the thousands.

I would also point out that 30 aircraft carriers, each with 6 escorts, implies 180 escort vessels, mostly Type-055 and Type-052D. So we're not talking about a "few dozen naval vessels"




That argument doesn't make sense.

It's a wartime scenario, and you expect critical, experienced workers to retire? At a minimum, they will stick around to supervise and train.

And why are you talking about Gen-Z?

Export industries would likely have excess manufacturing personnel and capacity, so they would be the first choice to switch to shipyards. In a wartime scenario, every worker building a warship understands why they are doing this.



Also remember that half of the Chinese population is still living on less than $10 per day.
I expect that shipyards can attract workers

yeah but their food costs are relly cheap! you cannot compare apples with pears!!

 

[Engineer]

So in a scenario where China and the US are locked in a long war, you have no thoughts?

I already gave you my thought. I said your scenario is shit.

It's actually a 7.5x increase for the first set of aircraft carriers.
And when a shipyard finishes one set, it follows with another set.

So overall, it's more like a 10x increase because of the longer timeline.

There isn't going to be an increase because top-notch processes are already being used, and you still haven't addressed the issue on how to raise the number of skill labor by even 2x.

No. Most car models are not produced in their millions.

Look at the example of NIO. They had automated factories even when production numbers for their various models were counted only in the thousands.

I would also point out that 30 aircraft carriers, each with 6 escorts, implies 180 escort vessels, mostly Type-055 and Type-052D. So we're not talking about a "few dozen naval vessels"

China produced 30+ millions of cars in 2024, so that's not just in millions, but tens of millions. No matter how you distort the number, naval vessels production doesn't come close. An aircraft carrier is much more different to a destroyer than a truck is to a car. There is no comparision, even you acknowledged this, so I don't see why you insist on arguing about it.

That argument doesn't make sense.

It's a wartime scenario, and you expect critical, experienced workers to retire? At a minimum, they will stick around to supervise and train.

And why are you talking about Gen-Z?

My argument makes perfect sense. The further in the future you push your scenario to take advantage of China's growth, the older people get. Gen-Z matter because they are the one who will enter the workforce in the coming years. When there are more people leaving than people entering an industry, there would be a net drain. Simple as that. So where is your 15x increase in skilled labour for that 15x increase in aircraft carrier production going to come from, huh?

Export industries would likely have excess manufacturing personnel and capacity, so they would be the first choice to switch to shipyards. In a wartime scenario, every worker building a warship understands why they are doing this.

Also remember that half of the Chinese population is still living on less than $10 per day.
I expect that shipyards can attract workers

This non-sense is literal force labour while simultaneously expecting nine women to deliver a baby in one month. It shows how out-of-touch you are with reality. We live in a highly specialised society, so specialised that even existing shipyard workers aren't totally exchangable. Those people you mentioned don't have the minimum skills to even step foot in a shipyard. It wouldn't matter if you found 300 millions of such people, because all they would do is get in the way or get themselves killed, which lower production rather than increase production. This whole back-and-forth between us can be summed up with one statement: you don't see people as people, and because of that your scenario is shit.

 

[Gloire_bb]

True, these shouldn’t be as much as big as an issue to China as they are to Russia given Taiwans size and the fact during war they can’t get any repairs or more systems, but still a threat to PLA forces and reportedly they will get 60 instead of 120 M109A7

Island isn't big, but it shouldn't be underestimated either; it's entire area is roughly comparable to entire combat zone in Ukraine (frontline+tactical rear areas for both sides), but x2, in one direction and wide strait(which also is combat area) away.

Furthermore, while useful area of the island is only portion of that, at the same time - for military purposes, most of it works, and it represents an annoying mix of very different environments to hunt them down.

>100 launchers, of which every single surviving one can fire with high ROF(due to the reloading system) whatever ammo it can find, will be annoying.

 

[Zhejiang]

View attachment 166485
Island isn't big, but it shouldn't be underestimated either; it's entire area is roughly comparable to entire combat zone in Ukraine (frontline+tactical rear areas for both sides), but x2, in one direction and wide strait(which also is combat area) away.

Furthermore, while useful area of the island is only portion of that, at the same time - for military purposes, most of it works, and it represents an annoying mix of very different environments to hunt them down.

>100 launchers, of which every single surviving one can fire with high ROF(due to the reloading system) whatever ammo it can find, will be annoying.

It definitely will be annoying but my point is in Taiwan there isn’t much distance to hide and they can’t get new ammo or systems during war but definitely every single one will be annoying and a threat to China, what is why the 84 HIMARS their getting worries me the most as they would now have 111

 

[Gloire_bb]

It definitely will be annoying but my point is in Taiwan there isn’t much distance to hide and they can’t get new ammo or systems during war but definitely every single one will be annoying and a threat to China, what is why the 84 HIMARS their getting worries me the most as they would now have 111

On the positive side, HIMARS didn't prove all that effective near full range (which isn't extreme, they aren't buying glsdb), and having 2k interceptors in vulnerable patch isn't that much of a problem.

Strait works both ways, Roc is rather unlucky in what their daddy produces is usually not really defensive.
300-370mm rockets would've worked for them way better. But US doesn't produce anything over 227.