Again, this should not be in science and technology thread. This is the end of this conversation in this thread.
and again, I am talking about battery companies ahead of CAS, not just BYD.
News on China's scientific and technological development.
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and again, I am talking about battery companies ahead of CAS, not just BYD.
Quite much of rare earth processing of Soviet Union happened in Sillamäe, Estonia. The plant has continued operation under different owners, facing profitability and environment protection concerns. The present operator is Neo Performance Materials Inc.
Malaysia most likely using equipment from China. This is why China is cracking down on technologies now. These technology restrictions should have been done years ago. China’s critical technology exports should be outright banned. Not just restricted. No country can be trusted. Even Pakistan was selling rare earths to the US.
I just heard someone say that it will take more than a decade for US to establish the rare earth supply chain, what are the people estimating here?
My estimate is 3-5 years, and I can expound on that. For China, it must aim for complete tech self sufficiency in this time horizon.
My estimate is 3-5 years, and I can expound on that. For China, it must aim for complete tech self sufficiency in this time horizon.
Indeed, for projections spanning over a decade, the backdrop must be one of free trade. Should China impose restrictions on rare earth exports, it would significantly accelerate the production of rare earths outside China. I predict an optimistic timeline of about five years.
Rare earths account for a very small proportion of the total product value, so even if prices rise twentyfold, they will still be purchased. Therefore, the Western bloc need only expand production capacity (especially for heavy rare earths) at any cost to significantly alleviate the rare earths dilemma.
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I don't think it matters any more. The West isn't going to now let go of this. There are multiple steps being taken to ameliorate the situation which includes floor prices, takeoff agreements, and complete takeovers of firms. So, I don't think now free flow would matter.
If there is significant disagreements here, maybe I can explain more about my estimation.
just would like to point out the restrictions are just a framework. it doesn't create any effects without the knobs being turned. it's tempting to imagine all the knobs just immediately turned to max, but that's not the point of it. the REEs will generally flow, just not to targeted endpoints. but the REEs will still flow to everyone else and continue the dependency. that will retard the scaling of any parallel REE stack.
My guess is they will plan for 5 years, but then their inefficient and poor execution will delay it to 10 years.