A combat episode of the Russian 220mm Uragan MLRS in the Donbas, in the Krasnoarmeysk sector. In the video, the Uragan MLRS fires 9M27F unguided rockets with 9N128F high-explosive warheads at a Ukrainian army position. The 9M27F projectile weighs 280 kg, the warhead weighs 100 kg, and the explosive mass is 51 kg. The exact location of the shooting is not disclosed.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
What is going on with the Ukraine war these days. It seems Russian offensive has stalled. Are they losing as some are claiming in the west? Especially what is going on Russian oil production capacity getting hampered by Ukraine? Russia seems completely unable to stop Ukrainian Drone attacks.
Ukraine has sent their best units to stop the offensive around Pokrovsk, so expect larger Russian gains in other areas now.
Russia is pursuing a strategy of attrition, that is their primary aim right now is to cause as many Ukrainian casualties as possible, not necessarily to capture as much land as quickly as possible. Ukraine is trying to hold on to territory at the cost of increased rate of attrition so things are not necessarily symmetric and judging progress by how much territory Russia has captured each month isn't necessarily a good measure. Unfortunately accurate unbiased casualty counts are difficult to come by in this war so it's hard to objectively judge progress. Regardless Russia is making progress so it's not like Ukraine has somehow retaken the initiative and is on the attack. It's just Ukraine is rushing units from one hot spot to the next and so far have been able to keep a lid on things. How long that will last is anybody's guess.
As for oil production, what is being hit are the refineries not the oil fields. So Russian oil production isn't going down but it's capacity to refine is. However keep in mind that Russia has spare refining capacity and at any rate it can also just export more crude oil so the effects of this should not be overstated. Further oil refineries are huge facilities that unlike most other civilian infrastructure are deliberately designed with mitigation of fire and explosion risk in mind because they're designed to work with lots of highly flammable oil. They're basically impossible to completely destroy short of nukes so it's like runway cratering, sure you can take the facility offline for a while but not long term.
Regarding Russia being unable to stop Ukrainian drone attacks, well it's impossible to stop every single incoming attack. Even Israel which has a much smaller area to defend with much more air defense assets is unable to stop every single attack. Some attacks are always going to get through, this is pretty much inevitable.
Russian MoD has claimed 5,667 buildings in Kupyansk has been captured out of 8,667. Commander of the Russian forces in the area is ex-Ukrainian.
Russians have crossed the Volcha river and combat now on the southern area of Volchansk.
Russians have taken the dachas next to Konstantinovka. They are cleaning up the pockets near the city. Also some movement north of Chasiv Yar towards northern Konstantinovka.
The entire Serebryansky forest has fallen. Seversk is vulnerable to the north, south and east, and is being enveloped. Reported DRG combat within the city. Yampil now at risk. Zarichne effectively captured. Significant advancements towards Liman.
Over 15 settlements in Dnepropetrovsk has been captured by the Vostok grouping, within striking range of Poltava now and headed westward to Zaporozhye.
Kamiansky in the Zaporozhye region has fallen and Group Dniepr forces headed north. Ukrainian commander in the area got sacked.
Russian regular units are within Pokrovsk, especially at the south and at the west, which can cut off the highway. Heavy combat northeast of Pokrovsk as Ukraine concentrated many elite units in the area including Birds of Magyar. However, the Russians have two of their most notorious drone units, the Rubicon and the Sudoplatov in the area.
Largest oil refinery in the Dnipro region got destroyed, and bridges in the area are getting hit by FABs.
Ukrainians complaining Russian FPV drones over 30-40km from the front lines hitting logistics. Covering roads with nets don't seem to work.
Generally speaking I am seeing 15-20 sqkm a day on average on Russian advances and 1-2 settlements captured each day.
Noting a large increase in the use of LMUR missiles against Ukrainian drone control points. Gerans are frequently used against Ukrainian accumulation points, UAV launch points and control centers.
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So as far as i see, Ukrainian still actively attacks strategic targets inside Russia, oil refineries and stuff, last one apparently they were able to destroy Iskander position before they disperse.
Other than typical Ukrainian news and social media accounts hyping these attacks, i wonder if there is any serious means to quantify on the amount of damage being done to Russia and their effect in say, strategic manners, like did the oil refineries attack created fuel crisis that halted Russian advance or so ?
It's kinda hard to gauge the effect of the campaign the same manner as say Russian gaining ground, especially with social media account whenever they report the attack it's always include some "apocalyptic message" like Russian collapse soon or Russian cannot replace the equipment.
Other than typical Ukrainian news and social media accounts hyping these attacks, i wonder if there is any serious means to quantify on the amount of damage being done to Russia and their effect in say, strategic manners, like did the oil refineries attack created fuel crisis that halted Russian advance or so ?
It's kinda hard to gauge the effect of the campaign the same manner as say Russian gaining ground, especially with social media account whenever they report the attack it's always include some "apocalyptic message" like Russian collapse soon or Russian cannot replace the equipment.
This isn't the first time there were gasoline shortages in Russia during the summer vacations driving season. From what I understand there were no shortages in the gas stations affiliated with the Russian oil majors (Rosneft, Lukhoil). But independent gas stations buying the excess gasoline the majors usually sell on the open market were screwed big time.
There is also another problem. The Russian government sets a band for fuel to keep the prices in check. Due to a tight market and speculation the gasoline trade open market prices spiked. So independent gas stations would have to sell gasoline at a loss if they bought and sold at those prices. It is easier for them to just claim there was no gasoline available to buy than take the hit. But if a major did that the Russian government would just punish them.
Russia typically produces way more diesel than gasoline. Because Urals is heavy oil. So that has less of an issue. But it is not unheard of to have diesel shortages during harvest time either.
There is also another problem. The Russian government sets a band for fuel to keep the prices in check. Due to a tight market and speculation the gasoline trade open market prices spiked. So independent gas stations would have to sell gasoline at a loss if they bought and sold at those prices. It is easier for them to just claim there was no gasoline available to buy than take the hit. But if a major did that the Russian government would just punish them.
Russia typically produces way more diesel than gasoline. Because Urals is heavy oil. So that has less of an issue. But it is not unheard of to have diesel shortages during harvest time either.
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It takes a lot more to fully take down a refinery. See the Ploiesti Air Raids during WW2.
On the night of September 24, Russian forces launched a massive strike using Geranium drones on Kharkiv. Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported that more than 15 explosions rocked the city in 30 minutes. The strikes targeted Ukrainian military and critical infrastructure in Kharkiv.
There also seem to be a gradual ramping up of drone attack on both sides, from tactical to strategic. With no end to the war in sight, they could both be flinging large suicide UAVs at each other for years.