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[mshrief303]

Egypt's decision not to purchase the Su-35 or J-10C was likely due to pressure from the United States. For a long time, Egypt's F-16s were even equipped only with short-range missiles—which is utterly ridiculous.

Mubarak left egypt with that after his 30 years rule, he left with f-16 air fleet, even the navy best ships were second hand US hazard perry frigates - which the US of course modified it before giving it to Egypt,...etc

But later, Egypt bought Mig-29M which integrates good with the Russian Air defence systems they bought, especially S-300V, But after that there was a contest between Rafale and Su-35, and:

- even so Russia's give Egypt more weapons than the west, but they don't arm Egypt to win against adversaries like Israel, because of Russia's relation with Israel - look at iran - and they use that as a bargain with the US and give them a bone, so they don't clash with each other a lot -- look at their cooperation in Syria.
- When Egypt is locked in with Russia - if the modern fleet is just Russian - Russia will control it and play with it for it's interests - like US do - so they diversify their sources for military systems like going for frensh rafales.
- Russia's flankers doesn't have good electronics - like a modern cockpit with an AESA radar,...etc - so you the Rafale is not a bad deal, to offset the US pressure and having the illusion that you can make it work with France to get actuall BVR.

But in the end they couldn't because any european aircraft depends on MBDA for it's armament, which uses US components so something like Meteor is under US's ITAR law. And even if they made it full european, countries like UK & Germany can stop it if USA/Israel told them to do.

They only got 100% frensh products like MICA air-to-air missile with something around 80KM, and have SCALP air-to-surface, Exocets,..etc. And who knows about the quantity, can it last an attrition war?

The biggest critic is not betting on china a long way ago, like Pakistan did, but it wasn't only egypt that did this mistake, and they've a change to fix this, will they do it? Hopefully, the recent excercises between Egypt & China, seeing the J-10C & KJ-500, make it work...
US is pressuring them but they didn't pull out - nothing confirmed they pull out, just rumors - US pressure will slow down the process to accquire them, and will force egypt to keep the deal in secret as long as it could, that's known but they can still persist and get it.

 

[4channer]

Mubarak left egypt with that after his 30 years rule, he left with f-16 air fleet, even the navy best ships were second hand US hazard perry frigates - which the US of course modified it before giving it to Egypt,...etc

But later, Egypt bought Mig-29M which integrates good with the Russian Air defence systems they bought, especially S-300V, But after that there was a contest between Rafale and Su-35, and:

- even so Russia's give Egypt more weapons than the west, but they don't arm Egypt to win against adversaries like Israel, because of Russia's relation with Israel - look at iran - and they use that as a bargain with the US and give them a bone, so they don't clash with each other a lot -- look at their cooperation in Syria.
- When Egypt is locked in with Russia - if the modern fleet is just Russian - Russia will control it and play with it for it's interests - like US do - so they diversify their sources for military systems like going for frensh rafales.
- Russia's flankers doesn't have good electronics - like a modern cockpit with an AESA radar,...etc - so you the Rafale is not a bad deal, to offset the US pressure and having the illusion that you can make it work with France to get actuall BVR.

But in the end they couldn't because any european aircraft depends on MBDA for it's armament, which uses US components so something like Meteor is under US's ITAR law. And even if they made it full european, countries like UK & Germany can stop it if USA/Israel told them to do.

They only got 100% frensh products like MICA air-to-air missile with something around 80KM, and have SCALP air-to-surface, Exocets,..etc. And who knows about the quantity, can it last an attrition war?

The biggest critic is not betting on china a long way ago, like Pakistan did, but it wasn't only egypt that did this mistake, and they've a change to fix this, will they do it? Hopefully, the recent excercises between Egypt & China, seeing the J-10C & KJ-500, make it work...
US is pressuring them but they didn't pull out - nothing confirmed they pull out, just rumors - US pressure will slow down the process to accquire them, and will force egypt to keep the deal in secret as long as it could, that's known but they can still persist and get it.

Rafale performed very bad in recent Pakistan-India conflict.

 

[mshrief303]

Rafale performed very bad in recent Pakistan-India conflict.

I don't like the rafale for a second, it only works for france as they the one who developed it and can modify it, they've it for Navy, have it for their nuclear delivery, and of course the air forces. But when Egypt got:
- Didn't get long range BVR as I said above because the US, and france dependence on MBDA.
- Any design decision taken for that aircraft to be able to operate from a carrier or have nuclear delivery capability is just an added cost for a customer like Egypt.
- France like russia, does very little in transfer of technology.

The only good choice was betting on china like pakistan did, or at least get flankers with a modernization plan with china to have something close to J-16. But if the choice then was between Rafale & Su-35, then Rafale is not a bad choice for the reasons I said above.

And anything will be better than Egypt's F-16s

 

[_killuminati_]

But in the end they couldn't because any european aircraft depends on MBDA for it's armament, which uses US components so something like Meteor is under US's ITAR law. And even if they made it full european, countries like UK & Germany can stop it if USA/Israel told them to dodo.

As I remember, the original contract with MBDA in 2015 included the Meteor without any opposition from the US. Rather, it was the Israeli lobby which pressured the French interministerial arms export committee to restrict the Meteor.

if it's invaded and occupied, then Egypt will not be able to cooperate with a foreign nation to give them a base, it'll be too late as I said.

What do you mean by that? If Egypt is already occupied by foreign powers then it is no longer capable of calling any shots (like Iraq or Afghanistan).

 

[gelgoog]

- even so Russia's give Egypt more weapons than the west, but they don't arm Egypt to win against adversaries like Israel, because of Russia's relation with Israel - look at iran - and they use that as a bargain with the US and give them a bone, so they don't clash with each other a lot -- look at their cooperation in Syria.

Syria didn't have that much money to pay for systems. If you have the money the Russians will deliver just about anything. But they don't sell weapons on credit or give them away like the Soviets did. Not anymore.

- When Egypt is locked in with Russia - if the modern fleet is just Russian - Russia will control it and play with it for it's interests - like US do - so they diversify their sources for military systems like going for frensh rafales.

So you think the Russians will follow Israeli interests. But think buying French Dassault Rafales is better. LOL.

Try reading Marcel Dassault's bio:

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Dassault was not his birth name. He was a Jew. He married another Jew, so his sons are also Jews. His descendents still control the company.

The French Rothschilds control much of the French banking sector. And Macron, the current French President, used to work in their bank.

- Russia's flankers doesn't have good electronics - like a modern cockpit with an AESA radar,...etc - so you the Rafale is not a bad deal, to offset the US pressure and having the illusion that you can make it work with France to get actuall BVR.

The Su-35 radar is way larger with higher aperture and power than that midget radar on the Dassault Rafale. There is more to radar performance than the architecture.

biggest critic is not betting on china a long way ago, like Pakistan did, but it wasn't only egypt that did this mistake, and they've a change to fix this, will they do it?

Chinese hardware only became competitive like 15 years ago. And they only had an export available 5th generation this year.

- France like russia, does very little in transfer of technology.

Actually the Russians do way more tech transfer than the French. But you need to buy hundreds of units. Not dozens.

 

[mshrief303]

Syria didn't have that much money to pay for systems. If you have the money the Russians will deliver just about anything. But they don't sell weapons on credit or give them away like the Soviets did. Not anymore.

I had to make more specific, I mean Russia's cooperation with the US in Syria before Assad's fall, both cooperated to deny any threat to Israel, The US didn't attack Assad's regime (russian ally) and Russia didn't attack the PKK (US ally), and Assad's regime cooperated with the PKK, and when they lost some of it's troops joined the PKK. And when Assad regime collapsed, they helped Israel in it's bombing campaign.

So I was talking about the overall picture, focusing on politics, not just procurement.

The Su-35 radar is way larger with higher aperture and power than that midget radar on the Dassault Rafale. There is more to radar performance than the architecture.

PESA radars does have advantages, but Egypt already have the Mig-29M, so adding a fighter with an AESA radar to add more value for an air force that doesn't have any.

Chinese hardware only became competitive like 15 years ago. And they only had an export available 5th generation this year.

The first Rafale deal was done in 2015 - 10 years ago - so china already have 4.5th, and if they did like Pakistan, they would already have J-10C or maybe cooperated in JF-17 which have better BVR than the Rafale, and way cheaper.
Plust: Rafale & Su-35 is not 5th Gen, so saying "they only had an export avaiabailbe 5th gen this year" is not needed here.

So you think the Russians will follow Israeli interests. But think buying French Dassault Rafales is better. LOL.

As I said above, the diversify their sources, so if Russians cut them off, they still have the frensh, and vice-versa.
More importantly, Russia have a big jewish community that participate hugely in their government, Putin himself said "50% of Israelies talk russian" and he said this after Israel's attack on Iran, and Medvedev said more than once that he "offers that iran buy enriched uranium from russia" and that was in the same time when the US & the West try to force Iran to give up their enrichment capability.

So again, It's about diversification.

Actually the Russians do way more tech transfer than the French. But you need to buy hundreds of units. Not dozens.

India's problem with russia in TOT is already known, and Egypt doesn't have the same Economy like india to do it, and the Frensh also do TOT if you buy a lot, but they still deal like the russians do.

So I don't like both, China's a better supplier and give more in TOT, like Egypt can at least take a lot if participated in JF-17 program than they can ever do with Russia or France.

 

[mshrief303]

As I remember, the original contract with MBDA in 2015 included the Meteor without any opposition from the US. Rather, it was the Israeli lobby which pressured the French interministerial arms export committee to restrict the Meteor.


What do you mean by that? If Egypt is already occupied by foreign powers then it is no longer capable of calling any shots (like Iraq or Afghanistan).

Meteor is under ITAR, so USA have blocked it's transfer, the same problem the Europeans had when they want it to give it to Ukraine in some point in the past. Nevertheless, you're right, and that's the bigger problem:
- Israel have a big lobby in france - which helped them in their nuclear program greetly - so they can still pressure france if the meteor become ITAR-free.
- Israel & the US can still pressure UK & Germany to block the deal, as they also participate in manufucturing the meteor and can veto the deal.
- And if in the end, Egypt could have it, they can pressure to make the quantity very small - give them like 50-100 missiles -using any false argument like "europe need more because of russia's threat" or "we don't have the industrial capability right now".

About the foreign base, Egypt ability to negotiate for a foreign base with China or Russia will be undermined greatly because this countries will be a part of the war directly as the Invading forces will not let them build the base. Unlike the usual way, when the foreign country build the base, and deter any agression against this country, so it'll most likely be too late.

Even getting foreign militaries to protect the interior - like what happend after 1967 - will not be easy, as the US & Israel capability is way more powerful compared to these foreign militaries, and these countries face a lot of threats. So these countries - if willing - will use Asymmetric ways to help egypt, but most of them won't deploy thier troops to Egypt.

 

[gelgoog]

In Soviet times the communist leadership considered the state of Israel a Western settler project. That is why they supported Nasser the way they did. But in modern Russia, they just don't care about communist ideology like that anymore.
With modern Russian it is all about interests. Right now they want a naval base in the Mediterranean to replace Tartus. They made a deal with Haftar to get access to Tobruk.
Egypt did get a huge loan from Russia for four nuclear power plants.

The situation in Syria was messed up. Russia got in after an Iranian delegation headed by Qassem Soleimani went to Moscow and convinced the Russians to go in. But then he got torpedoed by the Iranian civilian government and was assassinated by the US.

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[mshrief303]

In Soviet times the communist leadership considered the state of Israel a Western settler project. That is why they supported Nasser the way they did. But in modern Russia, they just don't care about communist ideology like that anymore.
With modern Russian it is all about interests. Right now they want a naval base in the Mediterranean to replace Tartus. They made a deal with Haftar to get access to Tobruk.
Egypt did get a huge loan from Russia for four nuclear power plants.

The situation in Syria was messed up. Russia got in after an Iranian delegation headed by Suleimani went to Moscow and convinced the Russians to go in. But then he got torpedoed by the Iranian civilian government and was assassinated by the US.

That's not right, the soviet was one of the first states to recognize Isreal with the US, UK,..etc. Most of the high educated individuals in Israel then, was from the soviet union -- for instance the lab that was destroyed by iran is named as one of those scientists.

Russia never allowed any state they supplied with weapons to threatens the interior of Israel, they didn't equip Egypt to win against Israel, but they didn't want Egypt to collapse by Israel and turn to a US's asset , they let them bleed but not die.

And what the russians did recently with Iran, shows how much they care about israel.

Egypt relation with Russia is strategic, but this relation have limits. So they diversify their relations and doesn't depend on russia alone, because they can't.

 

[gelgoog]

Stalin did that as a way to appease Western interests. But things changed after the Korean War.

Both Lenin and the Soviet leaders from Khrushchev onwards behaved like I said.

Anyway I do agree that it is better for Egypt to buy Chinese weapons.