PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
I'll start here, because your assumption is that an LRASM has "full stealth", whereas I disagree.

It is impossible for LRASM to have full stealth because it is not shaped as a flying wing (ideally a hopeless diamond shape)

We have 5th gen fighters like the F-22, F-35 and J-20. And my understanding is that their stealth is optimised against X-Band radars. But the canards and tailfins are very susceptible to VHF or UHF radars did to a "resonance" effect. Thus, we have 6th generation aircraft (such as the J-36, J-50 and F-47) getting rid of any tailfins or canards. Why do this, unless features like tailfins or canards can be detected by radar?

I also recall the USAF reporting that the KJ-500 (with an L-Band radar) was capable of detecting opposing stealth fighters, and was vectoring Chinese fighters in parallel in response. That implies a significant detection range, based on the defending Chinese fighters keeping the US stealth fighters from beyond AMRAAM range.

And if we look at the JY-27V specifications, they claim a 250km+ range against the F-22 or F-35. But it fails to mention the B-2, which is a flying wing design.

So given the size of an LRASM and its physical design (where we can see tailfins and small wings), it should face the same radar detection issues as an F-22 or F-35.

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Now, in the absence of any authoritative statements, this is my best guess and the reasoning why.

Comments?
Why are you talking about supersonic Mach 2.5 antiship missiles?
We can see that both the US and Chinese militaries don't see their (continued) development as useful.

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Again, I've highlighted that the Chinese military has decided that high-altitude, hypersonic (Mach 5+) antiship missiles are the way to go, because they are far more difficult to shoot down, plus it also ameliorates the issue of striking a distant ship target before it has travelled much distance.

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But let's say a LRASM is an undetectable antiship superweapon, as you say.
For the Chinese military, such a capability would be fantastic.
They wouldn't have to worry about building a long-range detection and tracking network.

They could develop an extended-range version, which could be launched by trucks based on mainland China.
Then, such a weapon would easily sink every ship trying to approach the First Island Chain (and probably within the Second Island Chain as well)

Yet the Chinese military are too stupid to realise how effective an LRASM is, and build their own version?

And we're talking about 3 different branches of the Chinese military all being that stupid.
Namely the Rocket Force, the Navy and the Air Force.

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We also see the US military publicly complaining about American hypersonic missiles being ridiculously expensive at $40+ Mn and $100+ Mn per missile. Yet they are still buying them.

We also see the US military complaining that American hypersonic missiles are 20x more expensive than equivalent Chinese hypersonic capability in the Western Pacific. The implication here is that if the US could get their costs down to Chinese levels, the Americans would completely ditch LRASM and go all in on hypersonics.
Stealth is guaranteed. There are two ways to reduce a target's reaction time. One is with speed. The other is with stealth. The LRASM's strengths are its next-generation stealth, AI, and ECM.

A supersonic LRASM was ruled out because low-altitude supersonic flight would create a massive infrared signature and a massive fuel consumption rate, even with a state-of-the-art ramjet. The US hypersonic anti-ship missile will be powered by a hypersonic scramjet.

bc8972b6279acfdce73ccccee4fac7c8-2039416-1-e1534864120145.jpg
The supersonic LRASM-B was canceled in 2012.

My opinion is that the US is confident against supersonic targets with its interceptor systems like the SM-6 and the evolved Sea Sparrow. The F-35C with DAS and the E-2D Hawkeyes will detect any supersonic attack missile at a distance. My guess is that the US will put all its eggs in two baskets: stealthy VLO cruise missiles and hypersonic attack missiles with scramjet propulsion.

I've already told you that these are different visions for ASuW. China may not have the same approach as the Americans, and that doesn't mean they're both right or wrong.

You might question whether stealth offers a greater advantage compared to speed and power. The missile can still be detected and evaded, while it's considerably more difficult to destroy or evade a full salvo of heavy, high-speed missiles, even if they're detected first. Perhaps... hence the debate.

Everything I've already said can be read here:
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The LRASM is LO in several detection aspects.
 

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
This is simply radar spoofing and nothing new. Rafale's SPECTRA also has this capability. And I think we all know how well it worked against Chinese radar.
Even if this were possible, the missile is intelligent enough, via artificial intelligence, to detect new threats in its flight path, classify them, and fly around them. To be clear, other LRASMs in the strike package can recalculate the most survivable route to circumvent the threat.
 

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
then it is not finding its own target. it needs to datalink to an AWAC. what's the difference between that and a kinematically superior missile that also datalinks to an AWAC other than being easier to shoot down?
Regarding the LRASM and its guidance method, consider the following:

Imagine two people trying to kill each other on a dark, sloping soccer field with other people walking in between. One has a rifle and a flashlight, the other has a bomb strapped to his body and the rifle points out the approximate location of the opponent. To see the bomber approaching, the one with the rifle needs to turn on his flashlight. After all, he can't defend himself against what he can't see. The trick is that when the flashlight is on, it acts as a guiding light for the bomber, who can approach by crawling, hidden by the slope of the field and below the flashlight's line of sight.

This puts the enemy commander in a difficult position: while he seeks to defend himself, he must turn on his radars and, in doing so, feed guidance data to the LRASM. This will work even in poor weather conditions and against stealth-cell ships, since the missile doesn't rely on radar to find its target.

The LRASM's long-range sensor, capable of "sniffing" enemy emissions, is based on ESM systems originally developed for the F-22 Raptor, the F-35 Lighting II, and the B-2 Spirit. The system has undergone extensive miniaturization. Once in an area where enemies may be operating, it begins to "sniff" RF emissions in the region, searching for any that its database lists as belonging to an enemy ship.

The LRASM's wide-angle ESM antenna can scan a wider arc in front of the missile for enemy radar emissions than an active radar, reducing the area of uncertainty. The missile is intelligent enough, via artificial intelligence, to detect new threats in its flight path, classify them, and fly around them.

Capturar.JPG
Once it gets close enough to, say, the center of an enemy task force nucleated around an aircraft carrier, it can use its IIR sensor to compare the ships ahead to a digital image library, ensuring it attacks a carrier and not a frigate. The IIR sensor also allows it to identify the most vulnerable part of a ship, such as the carrier's island or the destroyer's missile magazine. It then drops to just a few meters above the water's surface and delivers its final, highly tailored strike against the target to inflict maximum damage. In other words, in the terminal phase, the IIR sensor performs target recognition.

Essentially, the LRASM will have sufficient onboard AI to survive through automatic analysis of high-quality data from organic ESM measurements. In other words, it detects enemy electronic emissions (especially radar emissions), classifies them, geolocates them, and then calculates the most survivable route to circumvent the threat, or decides to directly attack one of these threats.

The LRASM is practically an electromagnetic black hole, with its stealthy fuselage reflecting as little electromagnetic energy as possible from radars, while the use of passive sensors and the missile's ability to network with off-board information via its data link allow it to maintain complete silence throughout its trajectory. Both characteristics drastically reduce the target's threat warning range and the effectiveness of its countermeasures.

In the US Navy, the LRASM, combined with the Super Hornet's range, will form an engagement zone of up to 2,000 km around the task force. A strike line of eight Super Hornets armed with 16 LRASMs and supported by the E-2D can eliminate any surface threat up to 2,000 km from the aircraft carrier.

With a payload capacity of 24 LRASMs, the B-1B now provides the USAF with an anti-surface warfare capability superior to any other air complex. With its payload, range, and support from the US fleet of REVO aircraft, the B-1B can threaten a task force anywhere on the planet in a matter of hours.
 

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
The navy ships are no match for air launched lrasm by b1 bomber or planes. However the positive news is that China has numerically more 5th gen planes in the west pac that can do sorties and to protect the sky near the ships. US has a small number of fifth naval planes at the west pac. In several years, China has accumulated so many 5th planes that can rule the sky
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Stealth is guaranteed. There are two ways to reduce a target's reaction time. One is with speed. The other is with stealth. The LRASM's strengths are its next-generation stealth, AI, and ECM.

My point is that just by looking at an LRASM, you can see it is NOT optimised against VHF frequency radar, because it has a tailfin and distinct wings.

And it is not next-generation stealth. We can see that next generation stealth is a flying wing or blended body, with no tailfins or distinct wings.

Again, tell me where you disagree with the reasoning and assumptions I've laid out, regarding how LRASM can be detected with VHF radar?

Otherwise your viewpoint comes down to "LRASM is a superweapon. Trust me bro."
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Regarding the LRASM and its guidance method, consider the following:

Imagine two people trying to kill each other on a dark, sloping soccer field with other people walking in between. One has a rifle and a flashlight, the other has a bomb strapped to his body and the rifle points out the approximate location of the opponent. To see the bomber approaching, the one with the rifle needs to turn on his flashlight. After all, he can't defend himself against what he can't see. The trick is that when the flashlight is on, it acts as a guiding light for the bomber, who can approach by crawling, hidden by the slope of the field and below the flashlight's line of sight.

This puts the enemy commander in a difficult position: while he seeks to defend himself, he must turn on his radars and, in doing so, feed guidance data to the LRASM. This will work even in poor weather conditions and against stealth-cell ships, since the missile doesn't rely on radar to find its target.

The LRASM's long-range sensor, capable of "sniffing" enemy emissions, is based on ESM systems originally developed for the F-22 Raptor, the F-35 Lighting II, and the B-2 Spirit. The system has undergone extensive miniaturization. Once in an area where enemies may be operating, it begins to "sniff" RF emissions in the region, searching for any that its database lists as belonging to an enemy ship.

The LRASM's wide-angle ESM antenna can scan a wider arc in front of the missile for enemy radar emissions than an active radar, reducing the area of uncertainty. The missile is intelligent enough, via artificial intelligence, to detect new threats in its flight path, classify them, and fly around them.

View attachment 156054
Once it gets close enough to, say, the center of an enemy task force nucleated around an aircraft carrier, it can use its IIR sensor to compare the ships ahead to a digital image library, ensuring it attacks a carrier and not a frigate. The IIR sensor also allows it to identify the most vulnerable part of a ship, such as the carrier's island or the destroyer's missile magazine. It then drops to just a few meters above the water's surface and delivers its final, highly tailored strike against the target to inflict maximum damage. In other words, in the terminal phase, the IIR sensor performs target recognition.

Essentially, the LRASM will have sufficient onboard AI to survive through automatic analysis of high-quality data from organic ESM measurements. In other words, it detects enemy electronic emissions (especially radar emissions), classifies them, geolocates them, and then calculates the most survivable route to circumvent the threat, or decides to directly attack one of these threats.

The LRASM is practically an electromagnetic black hole, with its stealthy fuselage reflecting as little electromagnetic energy as possible from radars, while the use of passive sensors and the missile's ability to network with off-board information via its data link allow it to maintain complete silence throughout its trajectory. Both characteristics drastically reduce the target's threat warning range and the effectiveness of its countermeasures.

In the US Navy, the LRASM, combined with the Super Hornet's range, will form an engagement zone of up to 2,000 km around the task force. A strike line of eight Super Hornets armed with 16 LRASMs and supported by the E-2D can eliminate any surface threat up to 2,000 km from the aircraft carrier.

With a payload capacity of 24 LRASMs, the B-1B now provides the USAF with an anti-surface warfare capability superior to any other air complex. With its payload, range, and support from the US fleet of REVO aircraft, the B-1B can threaten a task force anywhere on the planet in a matter of hours.
This still does not solve the simple question that the radar horizon is symmetrical.

If object A is below the radar horizon for object B, then object B is below the radar horizon for object A too. Neither can detect the other because RF doesn't pass through earth and water.

So how can the missile search for a target while it is sea skimming and has a small radar horizon?
 

supersnoop

Colonel
Registered Member
Regarding the LRASM and its guidance method, consider the following:

Imagine two people trying to kill each other on a dark, sloping soccer field with other people walking in between. One has a rifle and a flashlight, the other has a bomb strapped to his body and the rifle points out the approximate location of the opponent. To see the bomber approaching, the one with the rifle needs to turn on his flashlight. After all, he can't defend himself against what he can't see. The trick is that when the flashlight is on, it acts as a guiding light for the bomber, who can approach by crawling, hidden by the slope of the field and below the flashlight's line of sight.

This puts the enemy commander in a difficult position: while he seeks to defend himself, he must turn on his radars and, in doing so, feed guidance data to the LRASM. This will work even in poor weather conditions and against stealth-cell ships, since the missile doesn't rely on radar to find its target.

The LRASM's long-range sensor, capable of "sniffing" enemy emissions, is based on ESM systems originally developed for the F-22 Raptor, the F-35 Lighting II, and the B-2 Spirit. The system has undergone extensive miniaturization. Once in an area where enemies may be operating, it begins to "sniff" RF emissions in the region, searching for any that its database lists as belonging to an enemy ship.

The LRASM's wide-angle ESM antenna can scan a wider arc in front of the missile for enemy radar emissions than an active radar, reducing the area of uncertainty. The missile is intelligent enough, via artificial intelligence, to detect new threats in its flight path, classify them, and fly around them.

View attachment 156054
Once it gets close enough to, say, the center of an enemy task force nucleated around an aircraft carrier, it can use its IIR sensor to compare the ships ahead to a digital image library, ensuring it attacks a carrier and not a frigate. The IIR sensor also allows it to identify the most vulnerable part of a ship, such as the carrier's island or the destroyer's missile magazine. It then drops to just a few meters above the water's surface and delivers its final, highly tailored strike against the target to inflict maximum damage. In other words, in the terminal phase, the IIR sensor performs target recognition.

Essentially, the LRASM will have sufficient onboard AI to survive through automatic analysis of high-quality data from organic ESM measurements. In other words, it detects enemy electronic emissions (especially radar emissions), classifies them, geolocates them, and then calculates the most survivable route to circumvent the threat, or decides to directly attack one of these threats.

The LRASM is practically an electromagnetic black hole, with its stealthy fuselage reflecting as little electromagnetic energy as possible from radars, while the use of passive sensors and the missile's ability to network with off-board information via its data link allow it to maintain complete silence throughout its trajectory. Both characteristics drastically reduce the target's threat warning range and the effectiveness of its countermeasures.

In the US Navy, the LRASM, combined with the Super Hornet's range, will form an engagement zone of up to 2,000 km around the task force. A strike line of eight Super Hornets armed with 16 LRASMs and supported by the E-2D can eliminate any surface threat up to 2,000 km from the aircraft carrier.

With a payload capacity of 24 LRASMs, the B-1B now provides the USAF with an anti-surface warfare capability superior to any other air complex. With its payload, range, and support from the US fleet of REVO aircraft, the B-1B can threaten a task force anywhere on the planet in a matter of hours.
If you changed your username to “LockheedMartinSponsored”, I would just assume you are posting ads…

The scenarios you posit just don’t make sense. As mentioned in another response, why would E-2D be flying around unmolested?

Another point, this carrier strike group would also be vulnerable to DF-21.

Something like a 054B has its own radar and engagement capability, assuming it has already evaded the ship’s long range radar and any datalinks from drones and AEW assets, it would still need to maneuver how many more km around this ship? How much range is left?

If a B1B is taking off from the US mainland, why would China not be surveilling this and not have any countermeasures in place?
 

Tomboy

Junior Member
Registered Member
Also, LRASM will be facing ECM and ECCM from far larger and more advanced electronics with superior signals processing capabilities and more advanced algorithms.
If LRASM is designed with fighting China in mind then I don't see why they would not have that scenario in mind. US has similarly advanced EW abilities that could be easily used as a reference.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
The LRASM is practically an electromagnetic black hole, with its stealthy fuselage reflecting as little electromagnetic energy as possible from radars, while the use of passive sensors and the missile's ability to network with off-board information via its data link allow it to maintain complete silence throughout its trajectory. Both characteristics drastically reduce the target's threat warning range and the effectiveness of its countermeasures.

Again, you say the LRASM is an electromagnetic black hole, despite it having a tailfin and distinct wings.

So tell me why 6th gen air superiority aircraft such as the American F-47 and the Chinese J-36 are getting rid of the tailfin and distinct wings? So they look like flying wings or blended bodies, which presumably are stealthy against long-wave radars.


In the US Navy, the LRASM, combined with the Super Hornet's range, will form an engagement zone of up to 2,000 km around the task force. A strike line of eight Super Hornets armed with 16 LRASMs and supported by the E-2D can eliminate any surface threat up to 2,000 km from the aircraft carrier.

Let's say you are correct that the US Navy can eliminate any surface threat within 2000km.

The problem is, can the US Navy effectively get to within 2000km?

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An aircraft carrier is simply a floating airbase.
So what happens when aircraft carriers go up against many more airbases in mainland China?

Remember that land-based aircraft generally have a longer range and can benefit from significant more airborne refuelling support.

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Let's say we have a very large American task force with 4 carriers with a total airwing of 200 fighters. Note only some of these are stealthy.

What happens if the Chinese Air Force sends up 200 J-20 stealth fighters from multiple airbases?

The J-20 is being listed with a range of 2750km with 2 drop tanks. The J-20 already has significantly more range than 2000km radius you cite in your example. And we haven't accounted for additional range from airborne refuelling.

So presumably a force of J-20s can shoot down the entire airwings from 4 US aircraft carriers, before the Hornets can get into range to launch LRASMs at ships 2000km away. It also means the carriers themselves are sitting ducks for the Chinese Air Force and Rocket Force.


With a payload capacity of 24 LRASMs, the B-1B now provides the USAF with an anti-surface warfare capability superior to any other air complex. With its payload, range, and support from the US fleet of REVO aircraft, the B-1B can threaten a task force anywhere on the planet in a matter of hours.

Again, the B-1B has to get within 1000? km of the target.

But what happens when you have significant numbers of Chinese AWACs and J-20 stealth fighters operating at a distance of 1000km?
The B-1B has a very large radar signature, and presumably would be detected and shot down before it can launch LRASMs.
 
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