What we see in the pre- and post-strike satellite imagery at the impact locations appears to resemble a subsidence crater.
A subsidence crater forms when an underground explosion causes the overlying material to collapse into the void left behind. Unlike a traditional blast crater, which involves visible ejection of debris, a subsidence crater is caused by structural failure of underground cavities, often leaving a subtle depression with minimal surface disruption.
In military terms, a subsidence crater can be a signature of a failed or partial penetration, where the weapon either:
- Detonates in a shaft or soft medium (e.g., gravel, soil),
- Fails to reach the intended depth, or
- Triggers collapse in a tunnel or void below the surface.
Signs of a Subsidence Crater in Post-Strike Imagery
Shallow depression, not sharp or fresh-looking like a direct impact
- No surrounding blast pattern or fragmentation
- No signs of high-temperature surface exposure (scorching or soot)
- Minimal disruption to nearby structures
This type of crater suggests:
- The bomb may have entered a void or shaft—real or decoy
- The explosion may have caused a localized collapse, not structural destruction
- The target was likely not deeply affected, unless the collapse intersected a critical node (e.g., tunnel access or ventilation route)
If Iran built in structural void layers (or decoys), a subsidence crater might be exactly what they wanted attackers to hit.
It supports the idea of hitting a “camouflet” trap—a deception shaft or false structural target.
Even if real tunnels were collapsed, redundancy and clearance teams could restore functionality in weeks.
Bottom Line: A subsidence crater is not proof of a successful deep penetration, but possibly of a failed attempt to achieve one—or a successful deception by the defenders.
