PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[vincent]

It’s entirely possible China just uses Planes and ships but they might need force but China has always ruled that as the last case scenario, China would rather not kill anyone

MOUT kill far more people, both military and civilians. Trust me, a blockade is far more humane for the people on the island.

 

[PLAwatcher12]

MOUT kill far more people, both military and civilians. Trust me, a blockade is far more humane for the people on the island.

I do agree, China would rather do a blockade and jets to bomb military equipment trying to attack Chinese forces than land troops. China has always says AR is their last case scenario

 

[lcloo]

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Not a new challenge at all

Treat the whole Taiwan islands as an enlarged version of Changchun city sieze. Though the situation can't be exactly the same as Changchun.

PLA have the ability to seal off the whole island, enforce non-fly zones, cut off every mode of communication with outside world as well as within the island, destroy all fuel depots and electricity power plants. Morale of defending against PLA would likely drop to bottom.

Just blockade alone would not be enough. A constant waves of rocket/missile attacks, non-stop daily bombardment of beach defenses until they are non-functional, then a massive beach assault, helicopter landing assaults and paratrooper assaults, seaport capture and airport capture, by both human and unmanned machines for final blow.

For the Taiwanese, a better option is using the seize of Peiping city (today's Beijing) as an example. Since the war is already lost even before it begins, just open the city gate and let PLA walk in and take over peacefully, not that this can't be happened in the 21st century. No body get hurts except the greenie frogs.

 

[gelgoog]

Just get tiltrotors and use those to drop troops in the first wave. And do air support with drones.

I once checked the possibility of using heliborne assaults. The problem is flying that kind of distance at low altitude to avoid radar detection would be problematic. Current helicopters lack the range and speed.

 

[bsdnf]

Have anyone seen this?
These seem like the new standard template for whatever US tripwire and fast respond forces destined for Taiwan. The idea of heavy US land forces landing in Taiwan once shooting starts seem rather fanciful.

One important take away from the video is that the US military have no confidence of securing air superiority over Taiwan or even the first island chain. I wonder if they ever admitted this uncomfortable truth to the hearing or did they try to obfuscate this.
The US general standing in opposition really represent their old way of thinking, another Shock and Awe, a repeat of Desert Storm and nothing else would do.

Another curious thing is that they are incorportaing Ground drones into the new recon platoon. I'm very skeptical of ground drones, they have low range, no ability to overcome obstacles, no stealth and thus no survivability. It has none of advantages of a flying drone and imo, very limited usefulness.

Sometimes I wonder how quickly have PLA are adapting to the new realities of war. Drones are no longer just the eye, not just the sword but the primary means of survival as well. Everything from artillery to small unit tactics are transformed by it.

I am of the opinion that old heavy amphibious brigades allocated for the first wave should be considered combat inefficient. Still useful of course, but painfully fragile for how much they cost.
Frankly, I think if they are opposed by anyone more competent than the current ROC forces, it will totally combat ineffective unless the beachheads are already secured by preliminary ground forces.

To deny the this new reality posed by drones would be to deny the effectiveness of machineguns in 1916. I hope there's no one in the PLA trying to be 'Um, actually' about drones. It's good to be dialectical or 'scientific'(a popular saying in China), but if people tries to be dialectical about guns vs spears they need to be punched in the face.

The effectiveness(number) of small drones are rooted in its large civilian demand, anti-drone devices have very little civilian demand by comparison which is why there'll NEVER be a cost effective counter to them. When more autonomous drones become commonnplace, even existing methods of drone defence will start to fail. The West won the cold war on back of its civilian industries, the demand of its people drove its defence technology to surpass that of the USSR.

China is in a unique position to be leaps and bound of its rivals in this military transformation, I'would be in for a shock if the 'Um actually' folks manages to bundle this revolution. Either that, or institutional inertia forces money to be spent on old force plans instead of upgrading to new ones.

Why would you care about a youtube army GI from the first place?

I dislike Battle Order very much, since he is very bad at reporting PLA related information, but he does provide more comprehensive report than Cappy on the topic of the Transformation in Contact Platoon program. Focus on specific organization, equipment, and tasks, rather than the American Bushido fantasy of “if the PLA does A, then I will do B, I win.”

 

[dingyibvs]

MOUT kill far more people, both military and civilians. Trust me, a blockade is far more humane for the people on the island.

OTOH, short wars may be less bloody than long ones. The narrative these days have shifted to a blockade based strategy by the PLA, and it may precisely be a good time for the PLA to attempt an early amphibious invasion. Between the air force, guided munitions, and drones, the PLA should be able to achieve air supremacy within a few days. An amphibious operation backed by overwhelming firepower from land, sea, and air could then be launched in short order, using firepower and strategic surprise to overcome manpower disadvantages and take Taipei within a week.

Even if this cannot be accomplished, e.g. due to the defenders putting up stiffer than expected resistance, a larger invasion force can follow quickly thereafter as all logistics will be done within the mainland. Even a blockade strategy can then still be executed while the ground force only holds some land outside of major cities, and it'd be more effective as inter-city communications and logistics would be cut off.

 

[Moonscape]

Treat the whole Taiwan islands as an enlarged version of Changchun city sieze. Though the situation can't be exactly the same as Changchun.

PLA have the ability to seal off the whole island, enforce non-fly zones, cut off every mode of communication with outside world as well as within the island, destroy all fuel depots and electricity power plants. Morale of defending against PLA would likely drop to bottom.

Just blockade alone would not be enough. A constant waves of rocket/missile attacks, non-stop daily bombardment of beach defenses until they are non-functional, then a massive beach assault, helicopter landing assaults and paratrooper assaults, seaport capture and airport capture, by both human and unmanned machines for final blow.

For the Taiwanese, a better option is using the seize of Peiping city (today's Beijing) as an example. Since the war is already lost even before it begins, just open the city gate and let PLA walk in and take over peacefully, not that this can't be happened in the 21st century. No body get hurts except the greenie frogs.

I think a lesson from the current Israel -Iran conflict is that missile barrages aren't enough, and quickly lose their shock value.

The PLA needs to establish a beachhead and land forces as soon as possible after the initial air/missile assault. Ideally within hours, not days.

 

[bsdnf]

I think a lesson from the current Israel -Iran conflict is that missile barrages aren't enough, and quickly lose their shock value.

The PLA needs to establish a beachhead and land forces as soon as possible after the initial air/missile assault. Ideally within hours, not days.

If the missiles only caused "shock value" rather than actual damage, whether to military equipment or infrastructure, then the barrage is a failure.

Yes, I believe Iran's missile strikes pale in comparison to the PLA's capabilities, in terms of both precision and quantity. They just didn't hit many high-value targets.

 

[GulfLander]

Alleged british mil ship sailed in the strait(?)

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[gelgoog]

Yes, I believe Iran's missile strikes pale in comparison to the PLA's capabilities, in terms of both precision and quantity. They just didn't hit many high-value targets.

Iran is calibrating its attacks to prevent escalation on the other side. Including up to a nuclear strike.
Remember this is a highly unequal fight in the first place. Iran has much less resources than the US.