PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Z

zlixOS

New Member
Registered Member
Moonscape said:
I think a lesson from the current Israel -Iran conflict is that missile barrages aren't enough, and quickly lose their shock value.

The PLA needs to establish a beachhead and land forces as soon as possible after the initial air/missile assault. Ideally within hours, not days.
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Completely agree. Above all, the PLA needs to be either completely and absolutely and absurdly violent. This means 10,000 missile barrage, 10,000 armoured marines storming Taibei, complete energy and food collapse within a day, 5th column, mass ROCA defection, bombing Okinawa and sinking the 7th fleet, internal sabotage, flooding the island with propaganda questioning the Taiwanese will to fight, etc. all at the same time. The Taiwanese will to fight needs to be completely broken. Limited war will not be effective. Don't turn Taiwan into Gaza or Ukraine, turn it into Iraq in the Gulf War.

Taiwan isn't the only one that needs be frightened to submission, Korea, Japan, and American need to fear entering the war as well.
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
dingyibvs said:
OTOH, short wars may be less bloody than long ones. The narrative these days have shifted to a blockade based strategy by the PLA, and it may precisely be a good time for the PLA to attempt an early amphibious invasion. Between the air force, guided munitions, and drones, the PLA should be able to achieve air supremacy within a few days. An amphibious operation backed by overwhelming firepower from land, sea, and air could then be launched in short order, using firepower and strategic surprise to overcome manpower disadvantages and take Taipei within a week.

Even if this cannot be accomplished, e.g. due to the defenders putting up stiffer than expected resistance, a larger invasion force can follow quickly thereafter as all logistics will be done within the mainland. Even a blockade strategy can then still be executed while the ground force only holds some land outside of major cities, and it'd be more effective as inter-city communications and logistics would be cut off.
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What is the point of having PLA troops on the island? What can they accomplish that a blockade cannot? Any resistance from a single building will slow you down for hours. A city block can take days to clear.

You have to feed them, supply them (using ships) and provide air cover to protect them. That will tight up valuable ships (supply ships and combat ships that protect the sea lanes) and PLAAF assets. When the Americans and Japs intervene, those ships and PLAAF assets aren't available to counter them.
 
4

4Tran

Junior Member
Registered Member
vincent said:
Can you post a summary?
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I watched the whole thing, and it's a pretty bog-standard Congressional dog and pony show about how to address China's threat to Taiwan.

It starts with the Xi Jinping told the PLA to have the capability to take Taiwan by 2027, and then jumps right into the kind of basic strategies on how to deter China. Nobody actually went into any useful details like threat assessments or what anyone's capability is. It's very surface level stuff so I'd say that it's mostly a waste of time.

Highlights:
-Talk of how to defeat a blockade of Taiwan. Suggestions were to get Taiwan to stockpile more food and buy more Texas LNG. They were confident that submarines would break the blockade.
- Talk of a counter blockade of China with no details other than that the Europeans would help somehow.
- A lack of confidence that Australia, Philippines, and Japan would join in the conflict. I'm not sure why anyone ever thought that Australia would join in, but I guess looking at maps isn't popular for these folks.
- Talk about how Taiwan spending 10% of its GDP on American weapons isn't realistic because the US program for supplying Taiwan doesn't make that much!
 
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