Miscellaneous News

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member

delfer

New Member
Registered Member
Regarding China and Russia appearing to have abandoned Iran, I believe that they are just keeping themselves patient and reserved for the moment, as this whole thing could play out in a thousand different ways, and it would be unwise to make a rash move without letting all the pieces fall into place first.

In my opinion, both countries have one goal in mind, especially Russia, after what the US put them through in Ukraine: Bleed the US, drain their resources, and make them pay for all the havoc they wreaked on their countries in their attempts to keep them down.

There’s just one little caveat: the US will not go all in on Iran if they see it having strong allied support, and will be even more hesitant to join Israel in the war if they see Russia and/or China suddenly pumping in weapons, both offensive and defensive, into Iran ahead of their attack. America will quickly back off, and they will lose their only opportunity to finally get back at the US.

If they truly are interested in getting even with the US, they might just have to play it cool and pretend that they are keeping their distance, perhaps even have it seem like they have totally abandoned Iran, essentially luring the US into a trap, fooling them into thinking that it’ll just be a somewhat difficult battle. The goal is to have America deploy all their forces and equipment first, invest totally into this attack, and then begin pumping Iran with FPV drones, short and long range AD, ATGMs, perhaps even some heavy weapons like ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, heavy drones, on top of logistical support, supplies, food, etc… to force the US into a quagmire.

This is especially important for Russia; keeping the US and NATO heavily preoccupied with Iran and Israel will result in them essentially abandoning Ukraine, causing their bankrolled economy to quickly collapse, and likely lead to their military forces having no choice but to surrender. It would also be extremely demoralizing for the Ukrainians, and would likely leave them little choice but to abandon any hope at attempting an insurgency.

If Russia is unable to provide Iran with the necessary weapons and resources as a result of their war in Ukraine, then perhaps it would be best for them to put any offensives on hold for the time being, and instead prioritize their own heavy weapons for Iran, and have their military in Ukraine just hold the line rather than actively attempting to advance. Attacking Ukraine is just attacking the symptom, not the source. NATO and the US are the puppet masters, and it will be necessary to make some sacrifices to finally have a chance to weaken them.

But the most important thing, of course, is to first wait and see if the Iranian people and government even have the will and motivation to fight. Which is, I assume, what Russia and China are doing at the moment. They want to see if Iran is willing to keep going, and if they are going to stay cohesive and united, otherwise, any attempt at support will be for naught
 
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Regarding China and Russia appearing to have abandoned Iran, I believe that they are just keeping themselves patient and reserved for the moment, as this whole thing could play out in a thousand different ways, and it would be unwise to make a rash move without letting all the pieces fall into place first.

In my opinion, both countries have one goal in mind, especially Russia, after what the US put them through in Ukraine: bleed the US, drain their resources, and make them pay for all the havoc they wreaked on their countries in their attempts to keep them down.

There’s just one little caveat: the US will not go all in on Iran if they see it having strong allied support, and will be even more hesitant to join Israel if they see Russia and/or China suddenly pumping in weapons, both offensive and defensive, into Iran in advance. America will quickly back off, and they will lose their only opportunity to finally get back at the US.
First off, for China and Russia to abandon Iran implies that they have a certain level of close strategic and defense partnership which never existed in the first place. Secondly, until the US actually intervenes, the the conflict remains a regional conflict between Iran and Israel. Neither China nor Russia stands to gain from intervening at this point, and China's policy is non-intervention and non-escalation of regional disputes.
 

supercat

Colonel
Regarding China and Russia appearing to have abandoned Iran, I believe that they are just keeping themselves patient and reserved for the moment, as this whole thing could play out in a thousand different ways, and it would be unwise to make a rash move without letting all the pieces fall into place first.

In my opinion, both countries have one goal in mind, especially Russia, after what the US put them through in Ukraine: Bleed the US, drain their resources, and make them pay for all the havoc they wreaked on their countries in their attempts to keep them down.

There’s just one little caveat: the US will not go all in on Iran if they see it having strong allied support, and will be even more hesitant to join Israel in the war if they see Russia and/or China suddenly pumping in weapons, both offensive and defensive, into Iran ahead of their attack. America will quickly back off, and they will lose their only opportunity to finally get back at the US.

If they truly are interested in getting even with the US, they might just have to play it cool and pretend that they are keeping their distance, perhaps even have it seem like they have totally abandoned Iran, essentially luring the US into a trap, fooling them into thinking that it’ll just be a somewhat difficult battle. The goal is to have America deploy all their forces and equipment first, invest totally into this attack, and then begin pumping Iran with FPV drones, short and long range AD, ATGMs, perhaps even some heavy weapons like ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, heavy drones, on top of logistical support, supplies, food, etc… to force the US into a quagmire.

This is especially important for Russia; keeping the US and NATO heavily preoccupied with Iran and Israel will result in them essentially abandoning Ukraine, causing their bankrolled economy to quickly collapse, and likely lead to their military forces having no choice but to surrender. It would also be extremely demoralizing for the Ukrainians, and would likely leave them little choice but to abandon any hope at attempting an insurgency.

If Russia is unable to provide Iran with the necessary weapons and resources as a result of their war in Ukraine, then perhaps it would be best for them to put any offensives on hold for the time being, and instead prioritize their own heavy weapons for Iran, and have their military in Ukraine just hold the line rather than actively attempting to advance. Attacking Ukraine is just attacking the symptom, not the source. NATO and the US are the puppet masters, and it will be necessary to make some sacrifices to finally have a chance to weaken them.

But the most important thing, of course, is to first wait and see if the Iranian people and government even have the will and motivation to fight. Which is, I assume, what Russia and China are doing at the moment. They want to see if Iran is willing to keep going, and if they are going to stay cohesive and united, otherwise, any attempt at support will be for naught
Oriana Skylar Mastro, who was a top strategic planner on China at Pentagon and is a professor at Stanford now, explains why China should avoid to get involved:
Here is the full interview:

These don't bode well for Israel if true:
 

GulfLander

Major
Registered Member
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon began his official visit to China this week, starting in Shanghai on June 18, where he met with business leaders and held discussions with China Eastern Airlines to explore potential collaboration opportunities. The visit will focus on strengthening trade, tourism, and green development ties between the two countries, while also addressing broader regional and security issues.

(He was visited by Campbell before right, and kinda somewhat aligning w US, like FONOPs?)
 
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