2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

[tamsen_ikard]

so recognizing that Iran is fked is some how hating on Iran and being with the aggressor? so would you rather be in an echo chamber that tells you "don't worry Iran is fine"?

Iran chose the wrong path. they refused to be friends of Israel & America and chose to side with Palestine/ Russia / China in a quest to change the world order and diminish US influence. that was a foolish dicision which will cost them dearly. America is the dominant force in the middle east, not Russia & not China and definitely not those 5 million Palestinians in the open air prison. if Iran chose to stand against America for honor or whatever then Iran should have aquired the nuke yet they didn't do even that and now they will pay.

Getting nukes is a guaranteed way to alienate everyone especially China and Russia. If everyone sanctions Iran then they cannot survive as an economy even if they had nukes. Yes, north Korea survives, but barely, people literally starve to death. China even though is an ally of north kroea still imposes enough sanctions on north Korea just because of nukes.

I don't think Iran getting nukes was a viable strategy before or a viable strategy now. Only great powers who can survive economic sanction of the entire world can acquire nukes.

Pakistan was able to get it because they had the justification of India having it and China supported them.

But Iran will not get that support.

The best strategy for Iran is the one they have been pursuing, build up conventional tech, keep friendship with Russia and China intact, continue to being a threshold nuclear state as a deterrence.

 

[Botnet]

I am not 100% sure about China either

Well Iran is uniquely comprised by Israeli intelligence (and has been for decades now) but its hard for any major country to completely prevent attacks like this if a foreign adversary chose to do so.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Well Iran is uniquely comprised by Israeli intelligence (and has been for decades now) but its hard for any major country to completely prevent attacks like this if a foreign adversary chose to do so.

Israel is probably small and dense enough that they can surveil the entire country. But then it's so small that Iran can literally carpet bomb it with missiles if they had the courage. Let's see if they can follow through this time.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

Israel said it was continuing to strike targets inside Iran, with its focus now shifting to destroying ballistic missile launchers and drones. The aim appears to be to disrupt Iran’s ability to counter the Israeli strike early last night. It remains impressive how the Israelis are able to move so freely in Iranian skies.

 

[SinoAmericanCW]

The best strategy for Iran is the one they have been pursuing, build up conventional tech, keep friendship with Russia and China intact, continue to being a threshold nuclear state as a deterrence.

The problem with the 'threshold' strategy is that it's the worst of both worlds: it doesn't provide enough of a deterrent to prevent an attack, but it also poses enough of a latent threat to actively incentivize such an attack - as we're all witnessing today.

Iran has to pick and choose: either build a nuclear deterrent or abandon the aspiration altogether and normalize as best they can.

 

[obj 705A]

Getting nukes is a guaranteed way to alienate everyone especially China and Russia. If everyone sanctions Iran then they cannot survive as an economy even if they had nukes. Yes, north Korea survives, but barely, people literally starve to death. China even though is an ally of north kroea still imposes enough sanctions on north Korea just because of nukes.

I don't think Iran getting nukes was a viable strategy before or a viable strategy now. Only great powers who can survive economic sanction of the entire world can acquire nukes.

Pakistan was able to get it because they had the justification of India having it and China supported them.

But Iran will not get that support.

The best strategy for Iran is the one they have been pursuing, build up conventional tech, keep friendship with Russia and China intact, continue to being a threshold nuclear state as a deterrence.

if getting nukes was never an option then Iran should have never stood against America in the first place.
if you punch Mike Tyson then you only have yourself to blame when he takes your head off with a single punch.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

The problem with the 'threshold' strategy is that it's the worst of both worlds: it doesn't provide enough of a deterrent to prevent an attack, but it also poses enough of a latent threat to actively incentivize such an attack - as we're all witnessing today.

Iran has to pick and choose: either build a nuclear deterrent or abandon the aspiration altogether and normalize as best they can.

The way to prevent such attacks is to have the conventional strength to withstand it, or the ability to retaliate with enough force that attack will be deterred.

Iran clearly lacks the conventional strength to withstand an attack. But they may have the ability to retaliate with enough force that Israel and US will regret it. Let's see if Iran can do that or not.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

if getting nukes was never an option then Iran should have never stood against America in the first place.
if you punch Mike Tyson then you only have yourself to blame when he takes your head off with a single punch.

Iran's entire Islamic government exist to oppose the US. Thats the original basis of why they took power. They cannot survive as a government by being friendly to US.

Iran can choose to do regime change and become a US lackey again. Let's see if that happens

 

[Gloire_bb]

Iran clearly lacks the conventional strength to withstand an attack. But they may have the ability to retaliate with enough force that Israel and US will regret it. Let's see if Iran can do that or not.

It wasn't clear.
To a degree it isn't clear even now , because degree of Iranian failure to anticipate such an attack is almost overwhelming.
I still remember that they considered everything a bluff just 24h ago. They themselves willingly blindwalked into a failure unmatched in modern military history.

 

[obj 705A]

Does a newly urgent need to address the capability gap between GCC and Israel present an opportunity for China to stop "underpricing" its now combat-proven platforms relative to their true value -> the guarantee of arab territorial sovereignty?

the capability gap is not a newly occuring event. Israel has always maintained technological superiority over Arab countries and maintaining this superiority is America's policy.

GCC were not allowed to buy the F-35 (even though they wanted to) so whether the GCC buys the J-35 or not is entirely dependent on whether Israel/America allows them to buy it or not.