2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

[jli88]

Thats what I mean by the time is too late. These are long term deep structural issues that had years to be fixed and cannot be fixed in a short period. If they are still not fixed by now when things have heaten up too much, there's not much China can do. Its basically trying to treat terminal cancer at this point. I really don't want to be a doomer since things are only starting but we have seen the main problems are still there after all this time. Qasem Soleimani was assassinated in Jan 2020 ffs!

I really do hope Iran has something up its sleeve but im losing confidnce.

(Edited with AI)

China has always been careful about how much it supports Iran—and for good reason.

Iran’s foreign policy has long been one of extremes: refusing to recognize Israel while openly calling for its destruction, maintaining tense (or outright hostile) relations with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, and even having shaky ties with regional players like Turkey and Pakistan. Add to that Iran’s deeply negative reputation in the U.S., and you are in a pickle.

The problem? Iran’s goals have never matched its actual capabilities. Pushing aggressive policies while lacking the economic or military strength to back them up makes for an unstable long-term strategy.

So why was China cautious? Simple—it had (and still has) way too much to lose.**

• Strong ties with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, crucial for energy and investment.
• Surprisingly functional relations with Israel, where political rhetoric doesn’t always match reality (e.g., Israel was an early adopter of Chinese-made DJI drones for military use).
• A desire to avoid unnecessary blowback from the U.S. and its allies.

China wasn’t about to risk its own strategic interests just to fully align with Iran. Instead, it kept support measured—enough to maintain influence, but not so much that it would upset more important partnerships.

 

[snake65]

Americans are very much interested in exactly that.
Apart from Israel parentage(both lobby and american elite concentration on "never again"), it's a very deep 1979-80 trauma towards Iran specifically.

Making Iran into a valuable ally in important area is what they want. Get it back to secular state, at least on par with Turkey. If that means destruction of Iran, I agree with you.

 

[Almond98]

Sunni arab countries won't do anything, either. They are cucks and beholden to israeli interests, not to to mention they manage to be even dumber than the rest.

I think Saudi and uae see Israel as a threat. But because of Iran influence and it's nuclear threat they decided to align with usa and Israel.

 

[delfer]

So… that’s it? Iran just taps out? No response? That’s… disappointing.

 

[enroger]

Did Russia and France selling Su-30s and Rafales shift the balance of power to India in 2019?

Iran had its air defenses and missile bases attacked by saboteurs on the ground from a base they built inside Iran itself.

What does J-10Cs and HQ-9s do in this case???


I actually don't think that matters too much. Kim Jong Il never really negotiated either.

On a lighter note, I regret joking about Tom Cruise's TopGun 2. I thought the dude just waltz into an Iranian airbase and yoink a F-14 hilarious, not so funny now

 

[Randomuser]

On a lighter note, I repent joking about Tom Cruise's TopGun 2. I thought the dude just waltz into an Iranian airbase and yoink a F-14 hilarious, not so funny now

All those crazy things we thought were only possible in video games/movies (building a base within your enemy base) or just stealing jets out in the open turned out to be not so crazy after all. Reality really is strange sometimes.

 

[Topazchen]

I think Saudi and uae see Israel as a threat. But because of Iran influence and it's nuclear threat they decided to align with usa and Israel.

A democratic Middle East would naturally be anti West / Israel while an Ayatollah free Iran would be pro West .

 

[doggydogdo]

Did Russia and France selling Su-30s and Rafales shift the balance of power to India in 2019?

Pakistan got J-10Cs after Indians bought Su-30s and Rafales, it helped shift balance of power towards Pakistan. Israel and Iran conflict is like only if India got foreign fighters and Pakistan got nothing.

Iran had its air defenses and missile bases attacked by saboteurs on the ground from a base they built inside Iran itself.

What does J-10Cs and HQ-9s do in this case???

the "saboteurs on the ground" achieved it's objectives because Iran doesn't have good shorad which China and easily provide. Iran currently is hopelessly outmatched in the skies, J-10Cs and HQ-9s are going to help with that.

 

[sheogorath]

I think Saudi and uae see Israel as a threat. But because of Iran influence and it's nuclear threat they decided to align with usa and Israel.

They might, but they see Iran as a bigger threat so they would rather back Israel, which is why they were the main backers the current Al-Jolani regime in Syria

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

What I mean is the ability to understand how and why the west thinks. But also by growing up in the west, he knows what sort of living standards they have, how things are done in a fully developed country etc. He is only one person but from top down level it affects how North Korea approaches things. I don't really know the best way to describe it but its basically very different from someone who say has spent all their life only in Iran.

The older CPC leaders are notable for having significant overseas experience.

I mean its not like Iran didn't have people who studied outside the country as leaders.

Hassan Rouhani, the president of Iran from 2013-2021, has a PhD in Law from Glasgow Caledonian University. That was almost 10 years. Instead of strengthening the country, he critically weakened it at an important time and set the stage for today. It was during his presidency that he cowered to Obama and Trump's 1st admin, then Soleimani was killed, Iran was critically weakened with further sanctions, etc.

Hu and Xi only went on visits outside China and Jiang spent only a few years in the Soviet Union. They generally held things steady, at the very least. The leaders that got intimidated, mostly those in the 1980s, overreacted, did too much shock therapy, and it led to instability. Rouhani got intimidated by his experience in the UK into submission.