China's transport, tanker & heavy lift aircraft - esp. Y-20/YY-20

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MiraiAAA

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I believe that the PLAAF's demand for the Y-20 is not high enough to require an annual production of 50 aircraft. Even if we include refueling aircraft and early warning aircraft, the PLAAF's demand for the Y-20 series should only be around 200 aircraft (and currently, the PLAAF's transport unit structure cannot accommodate more transport aircraft). An annual production of 20-30 aircraft is a more reasonable figure.
 
Tomboy

Tomboy

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MiraiAAA said:
Even if we include refueling aircraft and early warning aircraft, the PLAAF's demand for the Y-20 series should only be around 200 aircraft.
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That's ridiculous, Y-20B is China's only large tanker aircraft. PLAAF needs a massive fleet of tanker in a potential war in the pacific due to forward operating bases for both sides would be quickly destroyed/disabled. US has 250 large tankers in active duty with hundreds more in reserve, China needs atleast a similar amount of active tankers to sustain a Pacific war pushing US further and further back. China isn't about to lose on logistics in a potential war. 500-600 Y-20 aircraft is a reasonable number of transport especially with Y-20B being MRTT capable.
 
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MiraiAAA

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Tomboy said:
That's ridiculous, Y-20B is China's only large tanker aircraft. PLAAF needs a massive fleet of tanker in a potential war in the pacific due to forward operating bases for both sides would be quickly destroyed/disabled. US has 250 large tankers in active duty with hundreds more in reserve, China needs atleast a similar amount of active tankers to sustain a Pacific war pushing US further and further back. China isn't about to lose on logistics in a potential war. 500-600 Y-20 aircraft is a reasonable number of transport especially with Y-20B being MRTT capable.
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Okay, it may indeed be necessary to have more refueling types, but I think if production capacity is increased to 50 aircraft per year, orders will be delivered too quickly and the production line will not be able to maintain production.
 
Tomboy

Tomboy

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MiraiAAA said:
Okay, it may indeed be necessary to have more refueling types, but I think if production capacity is increased to 50 aircraft per year, orders will be delivered too quickly and the production line will not be able to maintain production.
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There's around 100 Y-20 in service right now if they produce 50 aircraft a year, it'll take 10 years just to fill PLAAF demands and there'll be probably quite a bit of export demand to keep the line going for longer.
 
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GiantPanda

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ENTED64 said:
These things take time, usually years, to work out. If Y-20BE has only recently been made available to export the deals might still just be in the behind the scenes negotiation phase. Further the delivery timelines might be pretty long considering PLAAF might want a lot of them for their own use before allowing exports. Before Y-20 China had only a handful of tankers/strategic transports so there's probably a lot of backfilling that needs to be done. PLAAF is still in the fill out the roster and replace old equipment stage, the overwhelming majority of combat airframes the Chinese MIC is producing is directly for their own use. Just look at J-20 production, it was hugely ramped up and it was entirely for PLAAF.
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The Y-20BE, like the J-35A and J-10CE, being marketed in the Middle East in just the last five years definitely signals a willingness to sell.

But it does take time to attract and finalize deals as a new provider of high end aircraft. The effect of the J-10CE against India is just coming into play now.

These things are measured in years not weeks or months.
 
Deino

Deino

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zyklon said:
Recently heard the annual production rate for the Y-20 (presumably of all varieties) has reached ~50 airframes per year at XAC. Not sure if this figure is totally accurate, but inclined to defer to it given the satellite imagery that's been floating around.

With that said, it's a bit surprising that there hasn't been more chatter about prospective Y-20BE export orders.

With the C-17 out of production for a decade, and ongoing sanctions regimes impacting Il-76 sales, one would expect the Y-20BE to attract more interest, especially as a less politically sensitive product than the J-10CE or J-35AE.
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IMO highly unlikely if not simply impossible based on all images we have, based on all known/confirmed serial numbers we get in certain intervals (I know we are always late, but not about 50 aircraft), based on the known units ... and even more it simply makes no sense at all!
 
lcloo

lcloo

Major
What is the time cycle for a completed Y20 to undergo pre-delivery flight testings and acceptance procedure by PLAAF? I know we don't have the exact answer, but what about an estimate?

3 months to 6 months?
 
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