China's transport, tanker & heavy lift aircraft - esp. Y-20/YY-20

[sunnymaxi]

Recently heard the annual production rate for the Y-20 (presumably of all varieties) has reached ~50 airframes per year at XAC. Not sure if this figure is totally accurate, but inclined to defer to it given the satellite imagery that's been floating around.

With that said, it's a bit surprising that there hasn't been more chatter about prospective Y-20BE export orders.

With the C-17 out of production for a decade, and ongoing sanctions regimes impacting Il-76 sales, one would expect the Y-20BE to attract more interest, especially as a less politically sensitive product than the J-10CE or J-35AE.

looks like Y-20 production switched on WS-20 engines. this is likely the reason we are seeing the spike in production.

even if we take less numbers like 30-40 units. it means Shenyang is producing 120-160 WS-20 Engines annually.. i like it

 

[HailingTX20]

Eight Y-20s in formation looks kind of sexy.

 

[zyklon]

Source of this claim?

Because this is great news for the PLAAF's transport, tanker and AEW&C fleets. 50 per year means 500 in a decade for a sustained production run volume.

The source is an autistic friend who has been counting tail numbers for a minute, who is also too autistic to want to be referenced by name here.

So I asked him if someone more citable concurs, and he told me his assessment was recently echoed by an episode of a

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.

I don't consider his figure of ~50 per year to be controversial, and I also don't have access to full episodes of said podcast, so I took his word for it.

Though I imagine someone here probably knows better or got more details . . .

 

[GiantPanda]

The source is an autistic friend who has been counting tail numbers for a minute, who is also too autistic to want to be referenced by name here.

So I asked him if someone more citable concurs, and he told me his assessment was recently echoed by an episode of a

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

.

I don't consider his figure of ~50 per year to be controversial, and I also don't have access to full episodes of said podcast, so I took his word for it.

Though I imagine someone here probably knows better or got more details . . .

Forty or 50 Y-20s a year is plausible when we have had satellite photos of up to 25 Y-20s parked on Xi'an grounds for many years now. That's 20-25 at a particular point in time. Planes could be flying away from those grounds throughout the year.

If we had 20 Y-20s at Xi'an in 2019 -- and even assuming they were the only 20 that were handed over -- then a ramp up to double that is perfectly feasible, especially with the definitive WS-20 engine now in production.

My guess is that there were probably more delivered every year than the 20-25 we see taken in those sat pictures and the ramp up probably had been gradual over the years to 40 or 50 a year.

 

[Blitzo]

@mods perhaps it's time for a 9/3 parade thread?

Someone can make one in the "Strategic Defense" thread category if they want, but we're like three months away and all we are seeing so far is just rehearsals.

The source is an autistic friend who has been counting tail numbers for a minute, who is also too autistic to want to be referenced by name here.

So I asked him if someone more citable concurs, and he told me his assessment was recently echoed by an episode of a

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

.

I don't consider his figure of ~50 per year to be controversial, and I also don't have access to full episodes of said podcast, so I took his word for it.

Though I imagine someone here probably knows better or got more details . . .

I wouldn't necessarily consider that Chinese podcast/artist to be highly credible -- if it was Yankee et al saying it, then sure.

That said, I also think 50/year is not out of the realm of possibility, but is certainly on the high end. I have expected that once they had WS-20 sorted out for Y-20B that they would transition to all/most Y-20B production and turn the taps on a bit.

 

[qwerty3173]

Also to be considered is the unit cost of Y20BE. We don't know what is the exact unit price, but referring to C-17's unit cost of around USD 340 million each, even if assuming Y20 cost is about half of C-17, it still is an expensive item of US$170 million per unit.

Not saying that no foreign countries would buy Y20 export variant, but they have to consider the needs of a startegic air lifter and prepare their budgets for such acquisition. So the talks of buying Y20 export variant by foreign customers might not happen so soon.

Countries that operate IL-76 with expiring airframe times would be potential customers, they may consider whether to buy Chinese or Russian transporter. If Russian have problem with delivery then Y20 export variant will be a better choice for the potential buyer. (PLAAF did had delivery problem with IL-76 purchases decades ago, but that is old story).

If production speed is really as fast as 50 per year then I'd expect price tag a lot lower than 170 million per unit. I think it unlikely that the Y20B project is eating up more resources and funds than the J20, for instance.

 

[defenceman]

Hi,
so if we say approximately 35/40 per year, within 4/5 years should be
sufficient Y20 in China’s transport / tanker fleet etc around 400ish planes
so what will be the target 500/600 planes
thank you

 

[zyklon]

I wouldn't necessarily consider that Chinese podcast/artist to be highly credible -- if it was Yankee et al saying it, then sure.

They're a mixed bag, which is why I didn't bother to even ask for a timestamp. Better to let someone more motivated dig into their podcasts.

However, they do get some things right, so when @ACuriousPLAFan inquired, it was more productive to cite them than someone whose credibility is not only unknown here, but who also doesn't want to be cited in general.

Like a lot of things that get thrown around here, it might make more sense to evaluate this one on the basis of available evidence rather than the reputations of claimants.

That said, I also think 50/year is not out of the realm of possibility, but is certainly on the high end.

Sounds like there's momentum towards a rough consensus that a production rate of 50 Y-20s a year is plausible or plausible enough.

However, some healthy skepticism persist due to the lack of a publicly available deep dive enumerating tailfin numbers or detailing weekly satellite imagery of XAC, or a confirmation from a source that's official or more recognizably reliable, and that's reasonable.

I have expected that once they had WS-20 sorted out for Y-20B that they would transition to all/most Y-20B production and turn the taps on a bit.

We can probably all agree that the PLAAF will need plenty of Y-20s, so if CATIC has been pitching the Y-20BE internationally since at least 2023: the taps are either flowing, or AVIC believes the taps can be quickly and easily widened to simultaneously support both domestic and international customers.

So where will the production flow to?

Fighters like the J-10CE and J-35AE get most of the glory and publicity, but TBF, transports like the Y-20BE tend to deliver a lot more utility, or at least a lot more immediate utility on a daily basis, to operators.

Not to get off topic, but an interesting tidbit I've heard from some Arabs is that when the FC-31 first debuted as a concept in Zhuhai in 2012, it drew a lot of interest from the Middle East for the next several years. However, no country that could afford it actually took the program seriously until at least 2018, if not 2020 or 2021, because it was considered a relatively immature design compared to the F-35A.

When the FC-31 matured enough to start garnering serious foreign consideration — thanks to the influx of PLAN funding, as well as integrable technologies yielded by other programs throughout the Chinese defense industry — so did US diplomatic efforts intended to curtail the proliferation of Chinese fighters, and as such, sales remain politically challenging, especially with prospective customers that won't need generous financing and/or complicated offsets.

OTOH, the Y-20 platform, first powered by imported turbofans just as 31001 was, visibly matured into PLAAF service as the Y-20B as it debuted onto the international market. Moreover, politically speaking, transports are generally considered a more benign item than fighters or even armed MALE drones, and should invoke relatively less diplomatic pushback.

So given the total contrast vis-a-vis how the FC-31/J-35 approached the international market, will CATIC manage to "speedrun" the export of Y-20 transports, or will exports languish, and if so, what hurdle(s) are impeding serious foreign interest this time?!

 

[00CuriousObserver]

I wouldn't necessarily consider that Chinese podcast/artist to be highly credible -- if it was Yankee et al saying it, then sure.

They're a mixed bag, which is why I didn't bother to even ask for a timestamp. Better to let someone more motivated dig into their podcasts.

However, they do get some things right, so when @ACuriousPLAFan inquired, it was more productive to cite them than someone whose credibility is not only unknown here, but who also doesn't want to be cited in general.

Like a lot of things that get thrown around here, it might make more sense to evaluate this one on the basis of available evidence rather than the reputations of claimants.

The person worth paying attention to isn’t the channel owner, but 约克, who made the claim.

约克 works within China’s MIC and has access to some inside information. However, there’s a fundamental difference between the two podcasts. Guancha is a news outlet, and the guys are professional reporters. In contrast, the other podcast is more of a personal show with some enthusiasts. It’s more like friends chatting about military stuff over a beer after work. Naturally, the standards and credibility between the two are very different.

 

[ENTED64]

With the C-17 out of production for a decade, and ongoing sanctions regimes impacting Il-76 sales, one would expect the Y-20BE to attract more interest, especially as a less politically sensitive product than the J-10CE or J-35AE.

We can probably all agree that the PLAAF will need plenty of Y-20s, so if CATIC has been pitching the Y-20BE internationally since at least 2023: the taps are either flowing, or AVIC believes the taps can be quickly and easily widened to simultaneously support both domestic and international customers.

So where will the production flow to?

These things take time, usually years, to work out. If Y-20BE has only recently been made available to export the deals might still just be in the behind the scenes negotiation phase. Further the delivery timelines might be pretty long considering PLAAF might want a lot of them for their own use before allowing exports. Before Y-20 China had only a handful of tankers/strategic transports so there's probably a lot of backfilling that needs to be done. PLAAF is still in the fill out the roster and replace old equipment stage, the overwhelming majority of combat airframes the Chinese MIC is producing is directly for their own use. Just look at J-20 production, it was hugely ramped up and it was entirely for PLAAF.