PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[Wrought]

I recently saw a video by a Taiwanese pro-independence supporter talking about the advantages of Taiwan acquiring nuclear weapons, and then I saw this article in the Taipei Times:

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So my question is "Are people really this stupid?"

China has two well publicized red lines regarding Taiwan. The first is Taiwan declaring independence, and the second is Taiwan acquiring nuclear weapons. Both of these will automatically lead to war, and of the two, the latter is far more suicidal. Taiwan being independent is a serious blow to the CPC so the PLA will fight tooth and nail to prevent it. Things might get very serious if China were to lose, but there's a good chance that the conflict will stay conventional. But Taiwan getting nuclear weapons is a threat to the survival of China as a nation so China is far more likely to turn the whole island into a nuclear wasteland. I just get the feeling that too many observers outside of China think of emotionally satisfying solutions without ever considering how other players will react to said solutions. (Also note the entire American Info-Pacific strategy.)

The subject has come up many times over many years. Answer is always the same. Personally, I like this writeup as it covers all the obvious points while remaining succinct.

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[4Tran]

The subject has come up many times over many years. Answer is always the same. Personally, I like this writeup as it covers all the obvious points while remaining succinct.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

That's the thing, it's a subject that should be so familiar that anyone commenting on it should be aware of its context. But even the article you linked to says dumb things like "The cost of pursuing nuclear weapons may be severe, and the risks of sparking a PRC war of preemption may be high." It crosses the reddest of red lines. The risks of a war aren't high - it's a guarantee of war! And it'd be a war where China cannot allow Taiwan to exist any more. Any discussion of Taiwan and nuclear weapons that doesn't include this context is off to a very bad start.

 

[Wrought]

That's the thing, it's a subject that should be so familiar that anyone commenting on it should be aware of its context. But even the article you linked to says dumb things like "The cost of pursuing nuclear weapons may be severe, and the risks of sparking a PRC war of preemption may be high." It crosses the reddest of red lines. The risks of a war aren't high - it's a guarantee of war! And it'd be a war where China cannot allow Taiwan to exist any more. Any discussion of Taiwan and nuclear weapons that doesn't include this context is off to a very bad start.

The author is doing the analyst thing where you avoid speaking in absolutes. It's always "think" or "believe" or "imagine." The point is clear nonetheless.

I am unsure whether the PRC would prefer to turn the entire island of Taiwan to glass than concede its independence, but there are asymmetries so profound that I am not confident even Taiwanese nuclear weapons can override them.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Distance is not major factor in this case.

Those drone swarm attacks were conducted where the launch platforms (modified/retrofitted trucks) were situated less than 10 kilometers from their target airbases - Literally up-against-your-face type of distances.

No amount of distance from the frontlines can guarantee against such kinds of infiltration sabotage attacks. Such types of attacks can only be conducted with 内鬼s involved from deep within.

As for exclusion zones for heavy civilian trucks - It would be rather unrealistic if those sensitive/critical sites themselves are located near regions and locations where heavy civilian truck movements are common (e.g. sea/inland ports, freight train stations, industrial estates, major artery roadways/expressways, etc) in the first place.

Speaking of which, there are already 50 kilometer-long fiber optic cable spools for drones, which weigh about 4 kilograms. Not exactly heavy to be deployed in numbers on the back of pickup trucks or vans, let alone heavy trucks.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1930611059523502265

That means setting up exclusion zones for heavy civilian trucks don't really mean much. 50 kilometers of radius means a way greater area to cover than just 10 kilometers (~7854 square kilometers versus ~314 square kilometers).

The more effective methods would be conducting nationwide scanning and checking efforts, and for every single road vehicle that is at least MPV/van/pickup-sized.

 

[bsdnf]

Some weird ideas: Put fiber directly on the unmanned boat instead of using Starlink? Will it sink to the bottom or be broken by the waves?

 

[siegecrossbow]

Some weird ideas: Put fiber directly on the unmanned boat instead of using Starlink? Will it sink to the bottom or be broken by the waves?

If you want to mass kill marine life this is the perfect way to do it.

 

[Tomboy]

Some weird ideas: Put fiber directly on the unmanned boat instead of using Starlink? Will it sink to the bottom or be broken by the waves?

I've heard of some issues with wire guided AGTMs on water when the wire dipped into water

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Speaking of which, there are already 50 kilometer-long fiber optic cable spools for drones, which weigh about 4 kilograms. Not exactly heavy to be deployed in numbers on the back of pickup trucks or vans, let alone heavy trucks.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1930611059523502265

That means setting up exclusion zones for heavy civilian trucks don't really mean much. 50 kilometers of radius means a way greater area to cover than just 10 kilometers (~7854 square kilometers versus ~314 square kilometers).

The more effective methods would be conducting nationwide scanning and checking efforts, and for every single road vehicle that is at least MPV/van/pickup-sized.

Most civilian vehicles can't drive off road much, especially trucks. Their ground pressure, suspensions and road clearance don't allow it. We've all seen the guys who thought American truck commercials were real and get their pickups wrecked actually trying to drive off road on rock or mud.

That means you really only need to monitor roads and purchases of off road vehicles.

 

[Tomboy]

Is there anything China is doing to ensure a stable supply of food and oil when in war? I know China is mostly self sufficient on grain products but still import a good percentage of its meat product and other consumable while also having a massive population. US will target mechant ships with its submarine fleet in a pacific war potentially cutting China off to most imports including food and oil. I've been doing some digging but despite being physically connected to Russia which is one of the largest oil producing nations there hasn't been a single crude oil line running across the border and most crude oil is shipped in. China does have reserves for both oil and food for 3 months nominally and with some rationing might stretch it out to a bit more but after the reserves are gone in the worst case scenario there wouldn't be much way to replenish them.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Is there anything China is doing to ensure a stable supply of food and oil when in war? I know China is mostly self sufficient on grain products but still import a good percentage of its meat product and other consumable while also having a massive population. US will target mechant ships with its submarine fleet in a pacific war potentially cutting China off to most imports including food and oil. I've been doing some digging but despite being physically connected to Russia which is one of the largest oil producing nations there hasn't been a single crude oil line running across the border and most crude oil is shipped in. China does have reserves for both oil and food for 3 months nominally and with some rationing might stretch it out to a bit more but after the reserves are gone in the worst case scenario there wouldn't be much way to replenish them.

Enforce strict rationing like the U.S. did during WWII and reduce reliance on fossil fuel in general.